Mon. Dec 9th, 2019

The sun is great… but 5 weeks?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Monday 09 December 2019 - Monday night: Mainly cloudy. Fog patches developing late this evening. Low plus 2. Tuesday: Periods of rain ending in the afternoon then cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High plus 5. Tuesday night: Mainly cloudy. Temperature steady near plus 4. Wednesday: Periods of rain. High 6. Wednesday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 4. Thursday: Rain. High 7. Thursday night: Showers. Low plus 3. Friday: Showers. High plus 5. Friday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low plus 2. Saturday: Cloudy. High 7. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low zero. Sunday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High plus 5.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    6.4° C
    -0.3 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.25 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    Humidity
    91 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    6.4° C
    Heat Index
    6.4° C
    Dewpoint
    5.1° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 18:30:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    No Qualifying Rainfall mm
    Civil Rise
    07:23
    Moon Phase
    Full (95% full)
    Civil Set
    16:59
    Day Length
    12:11:33
    Day High
    7.3° C @ 14:01 Tdy.
    Day Low
    4.6° C @ 07:46 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.54 kPa @ 10:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.23 kPa @ 17:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    4.6° C @ 07:46 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    7.3° C @ 14:01 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 2km/h @ 12:20 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    195W/m2 @ 12:02 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.8 @ 11:29 Tdy.

This weather has been stupendous. Amazing. Incredible.

But I admit to being a little sceptical and a little worried.

As you can see here, in July and August we have had only 6 days below 25C.

But that doesn’t really tell the story. How can we have so much perfectly sunny weather over such a long period of time. My theory is it is down to a weak and nearly non existent Jetstream.

San Francisco State University has archived Jetstream analyses going back to 2010.

I have put together the animations for July/August 2010 and July/August 2013. This is a combination of satellite imagery and jetstream analysis (in yellow). You should notice that 2010 has a lot more yellow streaming over and around us, where as in 2013 it is broken up and infrequent.

What I believe it shows is the jetstream in 2010 (which was somewhat cooler but much more variable than 2013) featured a straighter, more consistently present jet stream. Whereas 2013 has featured a kinked, and almost non-existent jet stream. This is only one years comparison of course. So we should take this with a big grain of salt.

That’s my theory. I’m sticking with it for now. 🙂 We’ll see what August will hold. For now, it doesn’t look like it’s going to be much different. It sure would be nice to get a little rain.

5 thoughts on “The sun is great… but 5 weeks?

  1. I would like sun at least six days out of seven with rain falling between the hours of midnight and four, gently, every other day. Not happening? Well, I could make like all the media weather types and moan and complain, or take responsibility for it, or not, or tell my viewers/listeners that “I” am keeping a cloud or two in MY forecast. Too much emotional content where none belongs! I like the maps and explanations here. Keep it up.

  2. Good theory Chris, I’ll go with that! But WHY is the jet stream weak this summer, inquiring minds want to know?

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