The sun is great… but 5 weeks?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 08:15 AM PDT Friday 20 July 2018 - Friday: Mainly sunny. Increasing cloudiness early this afternoon then 30 percent chance of showers this afternoon. High 21. UV index 7 or high. Friday night: Clearing. Low 11. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 27. UV index 8 or very high. Saturday night: Clear. Low 11. Sunday: Sunny. High 33. Sunday night: Clear. Low 13. Monday: Sunny. High 35. Monday night: Clear. Low 14. Tuesday: Sunny. High 28. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 14. Wednesday: Sunny. High 27. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 14. Thursday: Sunny. High 27.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    17.7° C
    1.8 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.09 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    SW 1.3 km/h
    gusting 8.0 km/h
    Humidity
    69 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    17.7° C
    Heat Index
    17.7° C
    Dewpoint
    11.9° C
    UV
    2.5
    Solar
    495 W/m2
    Last Updated: 9:40:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    04:54
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (59% full)
    Civil Set
    21:55
    Day Length
    13:25:36
    Day High
    17.7° C @ 09:37 Tdy.
    Day Low
    12.7° C @ 06:23 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.13 kPa @ 08:28 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.99 kPa @ 01:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    12.7° C @ 06:23 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    17.7° C @ 09:37 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 6.4km/h @ 08:25 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    501W/m2 @ 09:39 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    2.5 @ 09:36 Tdy.

This weather has been stupendous. Amazing. Incredible.

But I admit to being a little sceptical and a little worried.

As you can see here, in July and August we have had only 6 days below 25C.

But that doesn’t really tell the story. How can we have so much perfectly sunny weather over such a long period of time. My theory is it is down to a weak and nearly non existent Jetstream.

San Francisco State University has archived Jetstream analyses going back to 2010.

I have put together the animations for July/August 2010 and July/August 2013. This is a combination of satellite imagery and jetstream analysis (in yellow). You should notice that 2010 has a lot more yellow streaming over and around us, where as in 2013 it is broken up and infrequent.

What I believe it shows is the jetstream in 2010 (which was somewhat cooler but much more variable than 2013) featured a straighter, more consistently present jet stream. Whereas 2013 has featured a kinked, and almost non-existent jet stream. This is only one years comparison of course. So we should take this with a big grain of salt.

That’s my theory. I’m sticking with it for now. 🙂 We’ll see what August will hold. For now, it doesn’t look like it’s going to be much different. It sure would be nice to get a little rain.

5 Replies to “The sun is great… but 5 weeks?”

  1. I would like sun at least six days out of seven with rain falling between the hours of midnight and four, gently, every other day. Not happening? Well, I could make like all the media weather types and moan and complain, or take responsibility for it, or not, or tell my viewers/listeners that “I” am keeping a cloud or two in MY forecast. Too much emotional content where none belongs! I like the maps and explanations here. Keep it up.

  2. Good theory Chris, I’ll go with that! But WHY is the jet stream weak this summer, inquiring minds want to know?

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