Tue. Nov 20th, 2018

The sun is great… but 5 weeks?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Tuesday 20 November 2018 - Tuesday night: Cloudy. Rain beginning after midnight. Amount 10 mm. Low plus 3. Wednesday: Rain. Amount 15 to 25 mm. High 8. Wednesday night: Showers. Amount 5 mm. Low plus 5. Thursday: Rain. High 9. Thursday night: Rain. Low plus 4. Friday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 8. Friday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low plus 4. Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 8. Saturday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low plus 5. Sunday: Periods of rain. High 9. Sunday night: Periods of rain. Low 6. Monday: Rain. High 10.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    4.6° C
    0.0 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.1 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    NNW 0.2 km/h
    gusting 3.2 km/h
    Humidity
    98 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    4.6° C
    Heat Index
    4.6° C
    Dewpoint
    4.3° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 18:00:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:00
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (94% full)
    Civil Set
    17:08
    Day Length
    12:04:54
    Day High
    4.9° C @ 14:50 Tdy.
    Day Low
    1.8° C @ 01:44 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.83 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.1 kPa @ 17:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    -0.4° C @ 00:12 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    4.9° C @ 14:50 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 3.5km/h @ 00:10 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    139W/m2 @ 12:06 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.8 @ 12:07 Tdy.

This weather has been stupendous. Amazing. Incredible.

But I admit to being a little sceptical and a little worried.

As you can see here, in July and August we have had only 6 days below 25C.

But that doesn’t really tell the story. How can we have so much perfectly sunny weather over such a long period of time. My theory is it is down to a weak and nearly non existent Jetstream.

San Francisco State University has archived Jetstream analyses going back to 2010.

I have put together the animations for July/August 2010 and July/August 2013. This is a combination of satellite imagery and jetstream analysis (in yellow). You should notice that 2010 has a lot more yellow streaming over and around us, where as in 2013 it is broken up and infrequent.

What I believe it shows is the jetstream in 2010 (which was somewhat cooler but much more variable than 2013) featured a straighter, more consistently present jet stream. Whereas 2013 has featured a kinked, and almost non-existent jet stream. This is only one years comparison of course. So we should take this with a big grain of salt.

That’s my theory. I’m sticking with it for now. 🙂 We’ll see what August will hold. For now, it doesn’t look like it’s going to be much different. It sure would be nice to get a little rain.

5 thoughts on “The sun is great… but 5 weeks?

  1. I would like sun at least six days out of seven with rain falling between the hours of midnight and four, gently, every other day. Not happening? Well, I could make like all the media weather types and moan and complain, or take responsibility for it, or not, or tell my viewers/listeners that “I” am keeping a cloud or two in MY forecast. Too much emotional content where none belongs! I like the maps and explanations here. Keep it up.

  2. Good theory Chris, I’ll go with that! But WHY is the jet stream weak this summer, inquiring minds want to know?

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