Tue. Sep 18th, 2018

The sun is great… but 5 weeks?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PDT Tuesday 18 September 2018 - Tuesday: Mainly sunny. High 19. UV index 5 or moderate. Tuesday night: Increasing cloudiness. 40 percent chance of showers overnight. Low 6. Wednesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 15. UV index 2 or low. Wednesday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 9. Thursday: Showers. High 16. Thursday night: Rain. Low 8. Friday: Rain. High 15. Friday night: Showers. Low 9. Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 15. Saturday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 7. Sunday: Cloudy. High 16. Sunday night: Cloudy periods with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 7. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 16.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    13.9° C
    2.8 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.05 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    S 0.1 km/h
    gusting 3.2 km/h
    Humidity
    78 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    13.9° C
    Heat Index
    13.9° C
    Dewpoint
    10.1° C
    UV
    3.8
    Solar
    619 W/m2
    Last Updated: 12:40:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    06:27
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (68% full)
    Civil Set
    19:58
    Day Length
    13:13:14
    Day High
    13.9° C @ 12:37 Tdy.
    Day Low
    7.3° C @ 02:06 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.15 kPa @ 08:28 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.04 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    6.9° C @ 06:11 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    13.9° C @ 12:37 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 3.1km/h @ 06:15 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    824W/m2 @ 11:39 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    4.1 @ 12:30 Tdy.

This weather has been stupendous. Amazing. Incredible.

But I admit to being a little sceptical and a little worried.

As you can see here, in July and August we have had only 6 days below 25C.

But that doesn’t really tell the story. How can we have so much perfectly sunny weather over such a long period of time. My theory is it is down to a weak and nearly non existent Jetstream.

San Francisco State University has archived Jetstream analyses going back to 2010.

I have put together the animations for July/August 2010 and July/August 2013. This is a combination of satellite imagery and jetstream analysis (in yellow). You should notice that 2010 has a lot more yellow streaming over and around us, where as in 2013 it is broken up and infrequent.

What I believe it shows is the jetstream in 2010 (which was somewhat cooler but much more variable than 2013) featured a straighter, more consistently present jet stream. Whereas 2013 has featured a kinked, and almost non-existent jet stream. This is only one years comparison of course. So we should take this with a big grain of salt.

That’s my theory. I’m sticking with it for now. 🙂 We’ll see what August will hold. For now, it doesn’t look like it’s going to be much different. It sure would be nice to get a little rain.

5 thoughts on “The sun is great… but 5 weeks?

  1. I would like sun at least six days out of seven with rain falling between the hours of midnight and four, gently, every other day. Not happening? Well, I could make like all the media weather types and moan and complain, or take responsibility for it, or not, or tell my viewers/listeners that “I” am keeping a cloud or two in MY forecast. Too much emotional content where none belongs! I like the maps and explanations here. Keep it up.

  2. Good theory Chris, I’ll go with that! But WHY is the jet stream weak this summer, inquiring minds want to know?

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