April 1, 2020

The Rains are coming – Or not? (Updated)

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Tuesday 31 March 2020 - Tuesday night: Mainly cloudy. 70 percent chance of showers changing to 30 percent chance of showers this evening except wet flurries over higher terrain this evening and after midnight. Risk of thunderstorms early this evening. Low plus 1. Wednesday: Mainly cloudy. 30 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. High 10. UV index 3 or moderate. Wednesday night: Mainly cloudy. Low plus 1. Thursday: Cloudy. High 7. Thursday night: Cloudy periods with 30 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. Low minus 1. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud with 30 percent chance of flurries or rain showers. High 8. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low zero. Saturday: Cloudy. High 10. Saturday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low plus 3. Sunday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 11. Sunday night: Cloudy periods. Low plus 3. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 12.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    3.4° C
    0.2 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.68 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    Humidity
    96 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    3.4° C
    Heat Index
    3.4° C
    Dewpoint
    2.9° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 1:45:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    45.0 mm since
    March 28, 2020 00:03
    Civil Rise
    06:21
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (49% full)
    Civil Set
    20:24
    Day Length
    13:22:51
    Day High
    3.5° C @ 01:44 Tdy.
    Day Low
    3.2° C @ 00:38 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.68 kPa @ 01:43 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.62 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    3.2° C @ 00:38 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    3.5° C @ 01:44 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0km/h @ 00:05 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

But maybe a little more snow first. 😉

Just looked at the GFS model this morning and it’s predicting 122mm of raim between Saturday and Tuesday… most of that coming on Monday and Tuesday.

I have little doubt that the later you get into that forecast, the warmer it will be and the less likely there will be snow… but this current freeze is big enough that I would give a pretty good chance for some snow to fall on Saturday and Sunday. It’s already in the Environment Canada forecast as being a possibility.

But even for the meat of the system next week, the GFS is predicting temperatures far below what Environment Canada is saying… only between 0 and 5C. So really. There is an outside chance that this could be a real mess, especially in inland areas and higher elevations.

Ski hills rejoice! The rest of us… just hope for rain. 😉

And just to keep you on your toes, the long long range forecast (Thu Mar 19 to Fri Mar 27) has even more moisture coming our way, at not much better temperatures…

Looks like an interesting start to Spring!


UPDATE
: This mornings GFS model has toned down the amount of precipitation in the forecast. Now it’s looking at only around 70mm between now and next Thursday with not nearly as big an event on Monday/Tuesday.

The catch? It has cut the predicted temperatures in half. Tomorrow and Saturday should be warm, but after that, it’s all hovering around 0C. More snow?!

4 thoughts on “The Rains are coming – Or not? (Updated)

  1. Rain or snow? It’s a tough call. You’re right, the GFS temperatures are between -2C and 5C, while EC are about 0C to 9C. I think we’ll get a little snow either way, but I did notice that EC was more correct about the high yesterday (12C!) than the GFS. I guess we’ll see.

  2. You’re right, we really blew away the high yesterday. It was just a beautiful day!

    Well, the good news is, in terms of accumulation at least, we’re not supposed to get nearly as much as was previously forecast.

    I think how much snow we gets will ultimately depend on the time of day and the amount of cloud cover we have to lock in that cold air.

    Never a dull moment.

  3. Interesting, It looks like the forecasts are coming closer together now – Environment Canada has lowered the temperatures a couple of degrees and included the chance of snow every day for the next several. The charts you linked to are typical of the patterns we’ve seen all winter this year. Usually those lows hit us dead centre, but this year they’ve been landing most of the moisture to the north of us. Strange year.

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