Thu. Jan 17th, 2019

Still chance for snow… But what about Christmas?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PST Thursday 17 January 2019 - Thursday: Showers. Amount 5 to 10 mm. High plus 5. Thursday night: Rain. Amount 10 to 20 mm. Temperature steady near plus 5. Friday: Rain. Amount 5 to 10 mm. High 7. Friday night: Rain. Low plus 5. Saturday: Rain. High 6. Saturday night: Showers. Low plus 3. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud with 60 percent chance of showers. High 7. Sunday night: Clear. Low plus 2. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud with 60 percent chance of showers. High 6. Monday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 3. Tuesday: Rain. High 6. Tuesday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low plus 3. Wednesday: Cloudy. High 7.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    4.3° C
    0.0 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    99.7 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    99 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    4.3° C
    Heat Index
    4.3° C
    Dewpoint
    4.2° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    36 W/m2
    Last Updated: 9:10:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    2.3 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:30
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (84% full)
    Civil Set
    17:28
    Day Length
    12:29:20
    Day High
    4.7° C @ 06:41 Tdy.
    Day Low
    2.4° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    1.8mm/hr @ 03:25 Tdy.
    Day High Barometer
    99.92 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    99.69 kPa @ 08:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    0.1° C @ 05:47 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    4.7° C @ 06:41 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 8.9km/h @ 06:40 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    40W/m2 @ 09:05 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

As I stepped out the door this morning it was snowing heavily again. We got another 3cm or so in town. The drive up the West side of the hump was pretty treacherous, far worse than yesterday morning ironically but this time as soon as I came down the East side all the snow disappeared and it was raining instead.

It will again depend on the temperature in your local area, but it should generally warm up just enough once the sun rises today to allow any more precipitation to fall as rain. But we will remain right on the edge of freezing so you can really expect wet snow to fall at any time.

Now… On to the forecast for the coming week, and since we are within 5 days, CHRISTMAS. Note, the general natural of this should be accurate as its within 7 days, but the specific timing is still subject to change and indeed it could be wildly different. Saturday and Sunday will be the time we can start to get our hopes up, or not.

Now lets look at the models. Here is the full week… The trend stays cool and damp, but not so damp as to be a big warm pacific storm…
20121220-072557.jpg

Here is today:
20121220-073202.jpg
You can see the big low out there pumping precipitation up from the south. It’s going to spin out there for the next few days.

The low is forecast to finally approach the coast and die out on Monday, Christmas Eve.
20121220-073744.jpg

You can see the white and blues stretching onto Vancouver Island…. Just in time for Christmas Eve.

Here is the precipitation. As you can see. Dry. But lurking on the horizon…..
20121220-074545.jpg

And now… Christmas:
20121220-075209.jpg

This is almost an exact repeat of yesterday’s setup with cold air trapped in the Valley and a Pacific front barreling in.

….. Again, the general idea should be accurate for this forecast, the timing may change though… The current low might break down sooner, or hang on more… The low predicted to swing a front our way might no be as strong… Lots of things can change, but at least at this point. There is hope. And isn’t that what Christmas is about?