Tue. Oct 16th, 2018

Still calling for Snow on Saturday

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Tuesday 16 October 2018 - Tuesday: Sunny. Fog patches dissipating late this morning. High 20. UV index 3 or moderate. Tuesday night: Clear. Low plus 2. Wednesday: Mainly sunny. Fog patches in the morning. High 18. Wednesday night: Cloudy periods. Low plus 2. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low plus 4. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 16. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low plus 5. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 16. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low 7. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 16. Sunday night: Cloudy periods. Low 6. Monday: Cloudy. High 16.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    3.2° C
    0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.79 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    96 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    3.2° C
    Heat Index
    3.2° C
    Dewpoint
    2.6° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 6:50:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:08
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (49% full)
    Civil Set
    18:59
    Day Length
    13:04:42
    Day High
    6.5° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    3.1° C @ 05:47 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.81 kPa @ 02:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.76 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    3.1° C @ 05:47 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    6.5° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0.0km/h @ 00:05 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

That forecast certainly is persistent. They’ve been calling for “rain or snow” on Saturday for a few days now. And now that we’re into the 3 day timeframe and it’s still there… well… maybe it might just happen!

I was checking out Ken Clarks Accuweather blog last night. The 2 systems that might give us snow on Saturday and then a whole bunch of rain on Sunday/Monday is going to dump a whole bunch of snow on the Cascades. So even if we don’t get more than a few flurries, it looks like Mt. Washington and Whistler are going to be jumping for joy for an early start to the season in this Olympic year.

Update: Beware driving on the Hump or Sutton passes today! Going up the West side of the Hump this morning (7AM) was not fun…. a good inch of slush on the road and wet snow coming down hard.

Careful out there. You must have Winter Tires (Studded is best) or chains for your all-seasons on both the Hump and Sutton Pass this time of year…. so says DriveSmartBC

22 thoughts on “Still calling for Snow on Saturday

  1. It looks like a lot of moisture coming, so if there is still cold air from overnight Friday and the rain arrives during the day Saturday, I think we’ll get snow for sure. I put my guess in yesterday and now I think I’m off by a few hours, but we’ll see.

  2. Yeah, well I didn’t think it was fair to hold off my guess until the forecast was certain. But I’m sticking to my guns anyway. The current GFS has the temperature warming up to 0C by around 10:00 am, with the moisture arriving about an hour or two later. Timing is everything, but I still think there is a good chance of snow sometime during the daylight hours on Saturday.

  3. The weather office says Rain Saturday with a low of minus 5. Go figure………my thinking is how does it rain at minus 5? So whatever, we’ll see. They are always throwing curve balls at us.
    Good luck to all!

  4. ya… minus 5 it’s pretty hard to think that there isn’t going to be a good couple hour window for some snow. There will be some people rooting against you though! πŸ˜€

  5. Hmmm, snow, eh? That should be interesting. I see the mountains are getting dusted now. Came through Alberni Tuesday night, and the Hump was white on the sides of the road, as was Sutton’s Pass. But then, it is approaching that time of year….

  6. That’s my logic Eve – I figure when those two systems colide some time on Saturday, we’ll get snow.

    Mike, this will be the first winter since 1994 that I haven’t had to drive Sutton pass 5 days a week. Sorry, but….Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow!

  7. Hey Chris

    @23:50

    Wind comming from N;E out here in beaver crk. not a normal patern,cold and steady but not hard.

    Snow…. ?

    Mark

  8. Eve, I think we both might be just a little early, but you are closest. The current GFS predicts the rain arrival and the warmup to 0C at about 10:00 am Saturday. I still think it will start as snow.

    Beyond that, Holy Crap, there’s a whole lot of rain coming! Up to 157mm on the 84 hour forecast (4pm Monday), and 268 mm on the 180 hour forecast 8 am Friday)! The GFS has tended to overstate the rain in the past, so I’m hoping that’s the case here. Sunday will be the third anniversary of the first flood/storm of 2006.

  9. Ya I saw that too Bill! Looks like we’re in for a really wet week!

    Just a heads up to any drivers out there.

    There was a fair amount of slush on the road this morning going up the West side of the hump. Be careful. It’s very slippery.

  10. Yeah, I know what you mean Chris, I may have misjudged. But you know, I’ve found that the forecasters often underestimate the time it takes for the cold air to clear out of the Valley. If it gets cold enough… say, -3 to -5, and the fog holds it in…well by the time the precipitation arrives at around 2, we might still see some flurries. Maybe.

  11. Lots of frost here!

    You’re Bill. Not only do they often underestimate cold leaving the Valley… they also often underestimate how fast a system comes upon the West Coast.

  12. Ya I was just looking at the Color Infrared animation and judging by the speed of the system over the past 4 hours it looks like it should reach us around 2PM tomorrow.

    So we’re going to need a full day of fog in order to keep that cool in…

    I don’t know if I’d wish that on anyone. πŸ˜‰

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