Tue. Jul 16th, 2019

Stable, warm week – going with your gut on stormy weather.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Monday 15 July 2019 - Monday night: Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers early this evening with risk of thunderstorms. Low 15. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. 30 percent chance of showers in the morning. High 25. Humidex 27. UV index 8 or very high. Tuesday night: Cloudy. Rain beginning in the evening. Low 14. Wednesday: Periods of rain. High 21. Wednesday night: Cloudy periods with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 9. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 21. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 11. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 21. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 22.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    15.8° C
    0.3 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.64 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    Humidity
    91 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    15.8° C
    Heat Index
    15.8° C
    Dewpoint
    14.3° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 3:30:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    1.5 mm since
    July 15, 2019 00:07
    Civil Rise
    04:49
    Moon Phase
    Full (100% full)
    Civil Set
    22:00
    Day Length
    13:25:19
    Day High
    16.7° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    15.5° C @ 02:27 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.7 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.64 kPa @ 03:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    15.5° C @ 02:27 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    16.7° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0km/h @ 01:20 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

Another quiet, warm week:

There just isn’t much to say about the forecast this week. It looks like another pleasant, mostly sunny week with warm temperatures and no chance of rain.

The jetstream is staying mostly to the north of us allowing warm air up from the south.

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It will slip down a little later in the week allowing some cool air into the picture, but no pacific frontal systems are forecast.

A baseless hunch about winter

I went down to close the windows of my car last night and as I went down the driveway that slopes into the basement of our home (that sometimes floods in big rains) I got a feeling in my gut that it was going to be a rainy, stormy, maybe even snowy winter. We haven’t had a really stormy winter for around 7 years. We’ve had a few really wet and cool summers in a row and now with this summer having been so hot and dry I wonder if a change is going to come in the fall. I have nothing to back up this knot in my gut. So we will just have to see how it plays out.

As there has been for a number of months, there is a big pocket of warmer than average water off the West Coast. Could this bit of extra energy feed our winter storms if it persists through the fall?
IMG_4541.PNG
What do you think is going to happen this fall and winter?

Happy Monday!

P.S. I almost forgot!

This happened early Sunday morning apparently!

IMG_4539.JPG

Yes that is a cougar, and yes it is sauntering off the ramp on centennial pier at Harbour Quay! The picture was snapped by the folks at the Swept Away Inn which is the beautiful ship docked at the pier. Check them out, and keep your eyes open for cougars in the lowered 3rd Ave. area!

1 thought on “Stable, warm week – going with your gut on stormy weather.

  1. Hmmm, interesting hunch! The worst year for storms in my books was 2006, when we suffered all kinds of damage from rain, wind and falling trees around our house. As I recall, that too was a very nice warm summer (though maybe not quite up to this year’s awesomeness), followed by a pretty warm and dry September and October. In November it all went to hell, and Environment Canada recorded over 600 mm of rain that month! December and January experienced wave after wave of Pacific storms that year. I know that patterns often repeat themselves, but in this case I certainly hope you’re wrong!

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