Tue. Jul 16th, 2019

So where did the wind go? Mostly North.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Tuesday 16 July 2019 - Tuesday: Becoming a mix of sun and cloud this morning with 30 percent chance of showers this afternoon. Fog patches dissipating this morning. High 25. Humidex 27. UV index 8 or very high. Tuesday night: Cloudy. Rain beginning near midnight. Low 14. Wednesday: Rain ending late in the morning then cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 22. UV index 3 or moderate. Wednesday night: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Low 12. Thursday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 19. Thursday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 8. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 23. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 10. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 25. Saturday night: Clear. Low 12. Sunday: Sunny. High 24. Sunday night: Clear. Low 12. Monday: Sunny. High 24.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    15.9° C
    0.2 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.64 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    Humidity
    90 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    15.9° C
    Heat Index
    15.9° C
    Dewpoint
    14.3° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 5:00:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    1.5 mm since
    July 15, 2019 00:07
    Civil Rise
    04:49
    Moon Phase
    Full (100% full)
    Civil Set
    22:00
    Day Length
    13:25:19
    Day High
    16.7° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    15.5° C @ 02:27 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.7 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.64 kPa @ 03:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    15.5° C @ 02:27 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    16.7° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0km/h @ 01:20 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

Well, it’s the morning after and for the most part we have come away from yesterday’s potentially damaging storm with very little damage.

Highlights:
Peak winds at Alberniweather: 54kph at 11PM

Peak winds measured by EC.
Estevan Point (West Vancouver Island) 122 km/h
Comox Airport 94 km/h
Grief point (near Powell River) 93 km/h
Sisters Island (Strait of Georgia) 102 km/h
Discover island (off Victoria) 103 km/h
Victoria gonzales 76 km/h
Saturna Island 93 km/h
Tsawwassen ferry terminal 81 km/h
Point Atkinson (West Vancouver) 91 km/h

Peak winds measured by Islandweather.ca
Alberni Elementary: 52kph
Courtenay: 80kph
George Jay Elementary (in Victoria): 70kph
UVic: 80kph
Trial Island (off Victoria): 105kph

So while we got plenty of wind in spots… And there were lots of ferry cancellations, power outages, and tree branches on the road, the question is, why didn’t we get as strong a storm as we thought we might.

Basically it went north. Here are the runs of the models on Sunday morning. NAM on the top, GFS middle, and actual satellite picture bottom.

20130930-072027.jpg20130930-072034.jpg
20130930-072818.jpg

The NAM was much farther south and was the strongest, This gave great cause for concern for the folks in Washington State. The GFS had it coming up Barkley Sound, which made us nervous. But as you can see it ended up near Kyuquot.

Meteorologist Scott Sistek of KOMO news in Seattle said on Twitter:

Well one thing is for sure, the NAM model sure took a credibility hit tonight. GFS/Euro was much closer to reality. Had the NAM model we saw this a.m. verified, it would have been historic and very damaging storm, so thus some alarm today.
.

I don’t have access to the Euro model (you have to pay for that) but the storm definitely went further north, and was a little weaker than both other models.

Oh well, it is always good to be prepared. It was still a significant storm, it even produced 2 waterspouts in off Cape Beale and Barkley Sound. So especially for this time of year, it was strong. And let’s not forget about all the rain that fell. In fact, we received over 70mm of rain through the weekend. Which is more than our normal for the entire month of September (49mm).

Is this storm a sign of the season to come? Hard to say. Let’s hope perhaps this is one of the strongest. Better a few branches down than whole groves flattened, or major flooding on 3rd avenue.

We will get some breaks from the showers today, but it will still be pretty wet. Tuesday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday all look pretty wet.
Happy Monday!