Tue. May 21st, 2019

So where did the wind go? Mostly North.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PDT Tuesday 21 May 2019 - Tuesday: Mainly sunny. High 20. UV index 7 or high. Tuesday night: Clear. Fog patches developing before morning. Low 8. Wednesday: Sunny. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 27. UV index 7 or high. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 8. Thursday: Sunny. High 26. Thursday night: Clear. Low 12. Friday: Sunny. High 23. Friday night: Clear. Low 9. Saturday: Sunny. High 28. Saturday night: Clear. Low 12. Sunday: Sunny. High 25. Sunday night: Clear. Low 12. Monday: Sunny. High 24.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    21.1° C
    1.0 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    100.72 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 4.8 km/h
    Humidity
    56 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    21.1° C
    Heat Index
    21.1° C
    Dewpoint
    12.0° C
    UV
    6.3
    Solar
    1071 W/m2
    Last Updated: 13:35:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.3 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    04:48
    Moon Phase
    Full (90% full)
    Civil Set
    21:44
    Day Length
    13:15:49
    Day High
    21.4° C @ 13:27 Tdy.
    Day Low
    10.4° C @ 06:33 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    100.74 kPa @ 11:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    100.64 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    10.4° C @ 06:33 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    21.4° C @ 13:27 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 6.4km/h @ 12:50 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    1150W/m2 @ 11:06 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    6.4 @ 13:04 Tdy.

Well, it’s the morning after and for the most part we have come away from yesterday’s potentially damaging storm with very little damage.

Highlights:
Peak winds at Alberniweather: 54kph at 11PM

Peak winds measured by EC.
Estevan Point (West Vancouver Island) 122 km/h
Comox Airport 94 km/h
Grief point (near Powell River) 93 km/h
Sisters Island (Strait of Georgia) 102 km/h
Discover island (off Victoria) 103 km/h
Victoria gonzales 76 km/h
Saturna Island 93 km/h
Tsawwassen ferry terminal 81 km/h
Point Atkinson (West Vancouver) 91 km/h

Peak winds measured by Islandweather.ca
Alberni Elementary: 52kph
Courtenay: 80kph
George Jay Elementary (in Victoria): 70kph
UVic: 80kph
Trial Island (off Victoria): 105kph

So while we got plenty of wind in spots… And there were lots of ferry cancellations, power outages, and tree branches on the road, the question is, why didn’t we get as strong a storm as we thought we might.

Basically it went north. Here are the runs of the models on Sunday morning. NAM on the top, GFS middle, and actual satellite picture bottom.

20130930-072027.jpg20130930-072034.jpg
20130930-072818.jpg

The NAM was much farther south and was the strongest, This gave great cause for concern for the folks in Washington State. The GFS had it coming up Barkley Sound, which made us nervous. But as you can see it ended up near Kyuquot.

Meteorologist Scott Sistek of KOMO news in Seattle said on Twitter:

Well one thing is for sure, the NAM model sure took a credibility hit tonight. GFS/Euro was much closer to reality. Had the NAM model we saw this a.m. verified, it would have been historic and very damaging storm, so thus some alarm today.
.

I don’t have access to the Euro model (you have to pay for that) but the storm definitely went further north, and was a little weaker than both other models.

Oh well, it is always good to be prepared. It was still a significant storm, it even produced 2 waterspouts in off Cape Beale and Barkley Sound. So especially for this time of year, it was strong. And let’s not forget about all the rain that fell. In fact, we received over 70mm of rain through the weekend. Which is more than our normal for the entire month of September (49mm).

Is this storm a sign of the season to come? Hard to say. Let’s hope perhaps this is one of the strongest. Better a few branches down than whole groves flattened, or major flooding on 3rd avenue.

We will get some breaks from the showers today, but it will still be pretty wet. Tuesday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday all look pretty wet.
Happy Monday!