Sat. Oct 19th, 2019

UPDATED 10AM: Snow will fly, but where will it stick?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Saturday 19 October 2019 - Saturday night: Showers ending early this evening then cloudy. Rain beginning before morning. Risk of a thunderstorm early this evening. Low 6. Sunday: Rain. High 10. Sunday night: Cloudy. 30 percent chance of showers in the evening. Rain beginning near midnight. Low 6. Monday: Rain. High 13. Monday night: Showers. Low 8. Tuesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 13. Tuesday night: Cloudy periods. Low 6. Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 12. Wednesday night: Cloudy periods. Low plus 5. Thursday: Cloudy. High 12. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low 6. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 12.

  • Current Conditions
    12.7° C
    -0.8 ° C/hr
    101.05 kPa
    S 8 km/h
    gusting 18 km/h
    78 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    12.7° C
    Heat Index
    12.7° C
    9.0° C
    105 W/m2
    Last Updated: 17:20:00 PDT
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  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    No Qualifying Rainfall mm
    Civil Rise
    Moon Phase
    Last quarter (66% full)
    Civil Set
    Day Length
    Day High
    13.9° C @ 15:54 Tdy.
    Day Low
    6.8° C @ 07:48 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    Day High Barometer
    101.05 kPa @ 17:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    100.27 kPa @ 04:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    5.2° C @ 07:21 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    13.9° C @ 15:54 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 8km/h @ 17:20 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    784W/m2 @ 13:37 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    2.1 @ 12:44 Tdy.

Update 10AM: The morning model forecast is out and it’s bad news for snow lovers. Once again, it shows the Alberni Valley getting skunked. And it’s actually showing slightly less accumulations for other areas as well. Though again, if you’re driving anywhere south of Parksville, you’re going to want to be prepared for 10-15cm in spots tomorrow morning and blowing snow possibly late tonight early tomorrow.

Here is an image showing the damage. Fingers crossed Alberni get SOMETHING!


Original post ———

Snow seems like a virtual guarantee to fly tonight and tomorrow morning as a low pressure system moves through tonight and Friday morning. It still appears as though the Valley will largely miss the snow. The models all say we will warm faster than inland, east, south and higher parts of the Island. There is a snowfall warning for East Vancouver Island, Victoria, and the Gulf Islands. Up to 10cm could fall there, especially away from the water, by Friday.

I think chances are definitely better than last time for more than a trace of snow in the Valley, elsewhere will again get more than us though. I expect 2-5cm in town, enough to measure, and 10cm in the deeper and higher parts of the Valley.

The satellite this morning shows the giant blob of moisture invading the entire province from the northwest.


The snow should begin tonight around 8PM (I’ll update this later if the forecast changes)

By Midnight, our snow in the Valley is already supposed to change to rain. I am somewhat skeptical. I think there is a possibility that away from the Inlet, much more of this precipitation could fall as snow. So folks out in Sproat lake and Beaver and Cherry Creek, and even in the Cameron Heights or upper Argyle neighbourhoods should be ready to get a little more snow. Possibly up to 5cm before it changes to drizzle.

Other areas of the Island look like they will get up to 4in, 10cm or more.

Here is the map for total accumulations, again, I will update this if it changes significantly later this morning.
I’ve included the color bar. It’s in inches. 2in is about 5cm, 4in about 10cm.20131219-071445.jpg

These are total numbers, they won’t happen all at once.
The Hump and Sutton pass should get over 5cm.
Nanoose, Ladysmith, Duncan, Cowichan Lake, Mill Bay and the Malahat look set to get the most. With anywhere from 5cm to over 10cm… Possibly approaching 15cm of half a foot on the Malahat and Shawnigan lake.

We shall see. Don’t hesitate to send me an email, tweet or Facebook message if you see snow in your area, and images are always fun to share!

Please drive safe if you are out tonight or tomorrow morning!

3 thoughts on “UPDATED 10AM: Snow will fly, but where will it stick?

  1. I am declaring measurable snow of 1cm in my backyard here a block south of Maquinna school… to heck with you all in central and north Port that don’t get the nice amounts we do here in the South! 😉

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