October 23, 2020

Snow threat gone for now… Cold is here

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT
    Issued: 00:28 AM PDT Friday 23 October 2020

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Thursday 22 October 2020 - Thursday night: Increasing cloudiness. Wet snow over higher terrain overnight. Rain beginning late this evening. Low plus 3. Friday: Rain. Wet snow over higher terrain in the morning. Becoming windy in the morning. High plus 5. Friday night: A few showers ending in the evening then clearing. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 2. Wind chill minus 7 overnight. Saturday: Sunny. High plus 5. Saturday night: Clear. Low minus 5. Sunday: Sunny. High plus 5. Sunday night: Cloudy periods. Low zero. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 8. Monday night: Cloudy periods. Low 6. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud with 30 percent chance of showers. High 11. Tuesday night: Cloudy periods with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 7. Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud with 30 percent chance of showers. High 12.

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The stars were out this morning and it is clear and crisp now and below -1° C in the City. The threat of any serious snow in our area should be gone for today and the near future. There is still a slight chance that the East Coast might get some when the winds blow across the strait later Monday and into Tuesday but it should not be much.

Yesterday we did indeed set a new short term record high of 10.5° C since 1995 at the Airport. Tomorrow and Wednesday morning we have a chance of setting a similar record low around -6 and -4 respectively, so quite the switch in 48hrs.

As for the threat of snow in the future, this week is looking quite dry but some models have a significant precipitation event next Sunday and Monday that could bring snow. It’s way out there though so it’s too early to tell.
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As is evident by the big bulge in the Tuesday jetstream image above, there is a big Omega Block setting up just off the coast and at this time of year that very often gives us cold air for long periods of time in our region and can lead to our most favourite type of events when warm Pacific rains slip overtop cold Valley air leading to big dumps of snow followed by a big flush of rain, and slush.

We shall see if that is going to happen in this case, but if it does, it won’t be any time soon.