Tue. Jul 23rd, 2019

Snow coming – but how much?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Monday 22 July 2019 - Monday night: A few clouds. Low 12. Tuesday: Sunny. Becoming a mix of sun and cloud late in the morning. High 25. Humidex 26. UV index 7 or high. Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. 30 percent chance of showers in the evening and after midnight. Low 13. Wednesday: Sunny. High 23. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 11. Thursday: Sunny. High 26. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low 13. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 23. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 14. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 22. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low 13. Sunday: Sunny. High 23.

  • Current Conditions
    15.4° C
    -0.7 ° C/hr
    101.8 kPa
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    90 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    15.4° C
    Heat Index
    15.4° C
    13.8° C
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 1:50:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    No Qualifying Rainfall mm
    Civil Rise
    Moon Phase
    Last quarter (66% full)
    Civil Set
    Day Length
    Day High
    16.7° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    15.4° C @ 01:48 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    Day High Barometer
    101.81 kPa @ 00:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.76 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    15.4° C @ 01:48 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    16.7° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0km/h @ 00:40 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

So the question in the next 48 hours will be not whether we get snow, we will. The question will be how much and for how long.

Environment Canada has issued a Snowfall Warning….. [edit: oops! not just for us, for the East Coast, South Island, Gulf Islands, Lower Mainland and Sunshine Coast too!)

Here’s what the models say:

It will likely start around Thursday 4AM:
Temperature (blue is 0 or below):


The models predict a switch to rain by around 1PM as you can see here the temperature goes into the green:

So according to these models, we might not get that much snow out of the deal. But, models are never 100% and for those of you at the Lake or going over Sutton Pass, expect the snow to hold on longer.

What I *don’t* see coming that has been predicted over the past few days, is a big warm up back to the 5-8C range. None of the models are predicting that, nor have they at any point. So I think that may have been a little wishful thinking. I will expect temperatures to not go too much above freezing, just enough to switch to rain, but not much more than that.

In fact, going into the first week of December, we look to be going back into the deep freeze…. and for longer this time.

Enjoy! And stay safe.

6 thoughts on “Snow coming – but how much?

  1. The cold air usually lasts about 24 hours longer here than the rest of the Island, but the overnight temperature at the airport increased from -11C at 11pm to -6C at 6 this morning. It’ll be interesting!

  2. The thing is……..it never happens when they say it will. They don’t seem to know how to forecast for us! It’s always a crap shoot.

  3. Bill: I noticed the temperature rise this morning as well. We’ll see how far up it gets with the cloud cover today.

    Linda: You bet it does! It’s currently snowing lightly in Nanaimo.

    Eve: Don’t you know it. Personally, I think it has a lot to do with a lack of human eyeballs on the ground. Weather is just too variable in our region depending on where you are to make all the decisions from a front office. And that includes me, using the models. We’re all just looking at the same computer stuff. Need more real people!

  4. Hey Chris..Do you know when the snow will change to rain today approx? We have a bet going on, and im trying to cheat abit

Comments are closed.