Snow coming – but how much?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ENDED, Port Alberni
    Issued: 04:51 AM PDT Wednesday 20 June 2018

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Wednesday 20 June 2018 - Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. 30 percent chance of showers late this afternoon with risk of thunderstorms. High 31. Humidex 34. UV index 8 or very high. Wednesday night: Partly cloudy. 30 percent chance of showers this evening with risk of thunderstorms. Low 12. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 27. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low 13. Friday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 23. Friday night: Clear. Low 11. Saturday: Sunny. High 27. Saturday night: Clear. Low 11. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud with 30 percent chance of showers. High 23. Sunday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Monday night: Cloudy periods. Low 10. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    14.8° C
    -0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.52 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    92 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    14.8° C
    Heat Index
    14.8° C
    Dewpoint
    13.5° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    27 W/m2
    Last Updated: 6:10:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    04:28
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (51% full)
    Civil Set
    22:12
    Day Length
    13:20:51
    Day High
    17.4° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    14.8° C @ 05:28 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.55 kPa @ 03:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.51 kPa @ 05:13 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    14.8° C @ 05:28 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    17.4° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0.3km/h @ 00:30 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    30W/m2 @ 06:09 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

So the question in the next 48 hours will be not whether we get snow, we will. The question will be how much and for how long.

Environment Canada has issued a Snowfall Warning….. [edit: oops! not just for us, for the East Coast, South Island, Gulf Islands, Lower Mainland and Sunshine Coast too!)

Here’s what the models say:

It will likely start around Thursday 4AM:
Temperature (blue is 0 or below):

Precipitation:

The models predict a switch to rain by around 1PM as you can see here the temperature goes into the green:

So according to these models, we might not get that much snow out of the deal. But, models are never 100% and for those of you at the Lake or going over Sutton Pass, expect the snow to hold on longer.

What I *don’t* see coming that has been predicted over the past few days, is a big warm up back to the 5-8C range. None of the models are predicting that, nor have they at any point. So I think that may have been a little wishful thinking. I will expect temperatures to not go too much above freezing, just enough to switch to rain, but not much more than that.

In fact, going into the first week of December, we look to be going back into the deep freeze…. and for longer this time.

Enjoy! And stay safe.

6 Replies to “Snow coming – but how much?”

  1. The cold air usually lasts about 24 hours longer here than the rest of the Island, but the overnight temperature at the airport increased from -11C at 11pm to -6C at 6 this morning. It’ll be interesting!

  2. The thing is……..it never happens when they say it will. They don’t seem to know how to forecast for us! It’s always a crap shoot.

  3. Bill: I noticed the temperature rise this morning as well. We’ll see how far up it gets with the cloud cover today.

    Linda: You bet it does! It’s currently snowing lightly in Nanaimo.

    Eve: Don’t you know it. Personally, I think it has a lot to do with a lack of human eyeballs on the ground. Weather is just too variable in our region depending on where you are to make all the decisions from a front office. And that includes me, using the models. We’re all just looking at the same computer stuff. Need more real people!

  4. Hey Chris..Do you know when the snow will change to rain today approx? We have a bet going on, and im trying to cheat abit

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