SHAKEOUT 10:17AM. Fog and sun to continue. Winter forecast, no El Niño. Moonrise.

Are you ready for the SHAKEOUT!? .

AT 10:17AM this morning don’t forget to practice your Earthquake response!


You can listen to The Peak which will be participating in the province wide drill and will notify you when the drill starts and stops. Do you have an emergency kit ready for an earthquake or Tsunami? Today is a good day to check your emergency supplies. Remember that in Port Alberni, if a major, Japan 2011 style (9.0+) earthquake strikes off our coast you would have as little as 5-10 minutes before a large Tsunami rumbled up the Inlet. Safe landmarks and gathering places above the maximum 10m Tsunami line around the Valley: McDonalds/CoOp on Johnson, Echo Centre, City Hall, Beaver Creek Market, and the Tseshaht Market.

The only sign of active weather in the forecasts is towards the very end of next week when it looks like our ridge starts to break down. However, 3 days ago, that break down was going to happen on Monday. So as with all very long range forecasts, expect this one to change. In the short term, expect the foggy mornings and early afternoons to continue with clear late afternoons and evenings.

Check out the moon tonight. It is set to rise at 5:38PM and you should see it a few minutes after that rising directly over Mt. Arrowsmith. Might make for a great picture.

Winter and El Niño:
Finally, yesterday Accuweather put out their winter forecast (December 1 to March 1) for Canada and they have predicted above normal temperatures for our part of the country with average snowfall.

The graphic they produced makes an interesting ‘bubble’ of colder than normal air in the prairies with the rest of the country above normal. They will have more detailed breakdowns soon which I will highlight if they prove interesting for us.


Oh, last week I also got the latest report from the NOAA on the status of the El Niño/La Niña cycle (known as ENSO). This report would have informed the Accuweather winter forecast. The models are predicting a continued Neutral environment meaning neither warm El Niño or cooler La Niña conditions in the Equatorial Pacific. Considering El Ninos usually usually give us warmer than average temperatures, it is interesting the Accuweather still expects warmer temperatures without an El Niño present. Many factors can cause this though.

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