Mon. Sep 16th, 2019

SHAKEOUT 10:17AM. Fog and sun to continue. Winter forecast, no El Niño. Moonrise.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PDT Monday 16 September 2019 - Monday: Mainly cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High 17. UV index 4 or moderate. Monday night: Cloudy. 30 percent chance of showers this evening. Rain beginning near midnight. Low 12. Tuesday: Rain ending in the morning then cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High 16. UV index 2 or low. Tuesday night: Cloudy with 70 percent chance of showers. Low 11. Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 21. Wednesday night: Cloudy periods. Low 9. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 19. Thursday night: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 12. Friday: Cloudy. High 22. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 19. Saturday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 12. Sunday: Cloudy. High 18.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    18.1° C
    -0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    100.77 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    S 11 km/h
    gusting 23 km/h
    Humidity
    66 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    18.1° C
    Heat Index
    18.1° C
    Dewpoint
    11.7° C
    UV
    1.6
    Solar
    195 W/m2
    Last Updated: 15:40:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    30.2 mm since
    September 12, 2019 00:09
    Civil Rise
    06:23
    Moon Phase
    Waning gibbous (93% full)
    Civil Set
    20:03
    Day Length
    13:14:01
    Day High
    19.2° C @ 13:09 Tdy.
    Day Low
    9.6° C @ 02:35 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    100.98 kPa @ 09:13 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    100.77 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    9.6° C @ 02:35 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    19.2° C @ 13:09 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 13km/h @ 15:35 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    958W/m2 @ 12:22 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    4.9 @ 13:32 Tdy.

Are you ready for the SHAKEOUT!? .

AT 10:17AM this morning don’t forget to practice your Earthquake response!

DROP , COVER. , and HOLD ON.

You can listen to The Peak which will be participating in the province wide drill and will notify you when the drill starts and stops. Do you have an emergency kit ready for an earthquake or Tsunami? Today is a good day to check your emergency supplies. Remember that in Port Alberni, if a major, Japan 2011 style (9.0+) earthquake strikes off our coast you would have as little as 5-10 minutes before a large Tsunami rumbled up the Inlet. Safe landmarks and gathering places above the maximum 10m Tsunami line around the Valley: McDonalds/CoOp on Johnson, Echo Centre, City Hall, Beaver Creek Market, and the Tseshaht Market.

Weather:
The only sign of active weather in the forecasts is towards the very end of next week when it looks like our ridge starts to break down. However, 3 days ago, that break down was going to happen on Monday. So as with all very long range forecasts, expect this one to change. In the short term, expect the foggy mornings and early afternoons to continue with clear late afternoons and evenings.

Moon:
Check out the moon tonight. It is set to rise at 5:38PM and you should see it a few minutes after that rising directly over Mt. Arrowsmith. Might make for a great picture.

Winter and El Niño:
Finally, yesterday Accuweather put out their winter forecast (December 1 to March 1) for Canada and they have predicted above normal temperatures for our part of the country with average snowfall.

The graphic they produced makes an interesting ‘bubble’ of colder than normal air in the prairies with the rest of the country above normal. They will have more detailed breakdowns soon which I will highlight if they prove interesting for us.

20131017-070222.jpg

Oh, last week I also got the latest report from the NOAA on the status of the El Niño/La Niña cycle (known as ENSO). This report would have informed the Accuweather winter forecast. The models are predicting a continued Neutral environment meaning neither warm El Niño or cooler La Niña conditions in the Equatorial Pacific. Considering El Ninos usually usually give us warmer than average temperatures, it is interesting the Accuweather still expects warmer temperatures without an El Niño present. Many factors can cause this though.