Sun. Aug 18th, 2019

Relief coming but no saviour?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Sunday 18 August 2019 - Sunday night: Mainly cloudy. Low 13. Monday: Clearing in the morning. High 24. Humidex 26. UV index 7 or high. Monday night: Partly cloudy. Becoming cloudy after midnight. Low 14. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 22. Tuesday night: Rain. Low 15. Wednesday: Showers. High 24. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 10. Thursday: Sunny. High 25. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low 11. Friday: Cloudy. High 21. Friday night: Cloudy. Low 13. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 22.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    19.7° C
    -1.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.03 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    S 8 km/h
    gusting 19 km/h
    Humidity
    66 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    19.7° C
    Heat Index
    19.7° C
    Dewpoint
    13.2° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    40 W/m2
    Last Updated: 18:55:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    No Qualifying Rainfall mm
    Civil Rise
    05:39
    Moon Phase
    Waning gibbous (89% full)
    Civil Set
    21:05
    Day Length
    13:23:02
    Day High
    22.3° C @ 16:12 Tdy.
    Day Low
    16.3° C @ 04:33 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.25 kPa @ 00:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.02 kPa @ 17:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    16.3° C @ 04:33 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    22.3° C @ 16:12 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 23km/h @ 14:05 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    1127W/m2 @ 12:33 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    7.3 @ 13:07 Tdy.

For the first time in a month there is a real chance that our pattern is going to change.

Not in the short term… It’s still bone dry.

But the long term has more consistent precipitation than I’ve seen since the spring.

20121004-070816.jpg

We were starting to see hints of this last week when precipitation popped up around the 10th, and then shifted back and forth as the week went on.

Now… Caveats: This remains a long term, high variability, forecast. No rain has appeared on the short, 7 day forecast. Also, the initial indications last week had pegged the first system at 60mm in a couple days. Now we are down to 33mm over 7 days and long term forecasts and the GFS in general, often overestimates the precipitation we get.

So there you have it. There might be a bit of relief coming for our drought… But at this point I think it’s going to be more like those few drops of water shared around from one small flask in the desert. It will keep us going, but we may just be looking at a mirage and must still wait for our oasis to appear.

One final kicker… From the research I’ve done, we need at least 140mm of rain in October to avoid setting an all time, 114 year record for dryness since July. if you click on the 1896 record in the last post you’ll see how much rain we need to catch up.

I give us a 30% chance of avoiding it.