Tue. Dec 11th, 2018

Relief coming but no saviour?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PST Tuesday 11 December 2018 - Tuesday: Rain. Amount 15 to 25 mm. High 6. Tuesday night: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers early this evening then partly cloudy. Fog patches developing after midnight. Low plus 1. Wednesday: Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers in the morning. Rain beginning in the morning. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. Amount 10 to 15 mm. High 6. Wednesday night: Periods of rain. Low 6. Thursday: Periods of rain. High 6. Thursday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 5. Friday: Rain. High 8. Friday night: Rain. Low 6. Saturday: Rain. High 8. Saturday night: Rain. Low 7. Sunday: Rain. High 9. Sunday night: Rain. Low 7. Monday: Rain. High 9.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    5.2° C
    -0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    100.01 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 6.4 km/h
    Humidity
    100 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    5.2° C
    Heat Index
    5.2° C
    Dewpoint
    5.2° C
    UV
    0.1
    Solar
    84 W/m2
    Last Updated: 14:45:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    37.6 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:25
    Moon Phase
    Waxing crescent (19% full)
    Civil Set
    16:59
    Day Length
    12:12:35
    Day High
    5.8° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    3.2° C @ 07:47 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    8.9mm/hr @ 07:16 Tdy.
    Day High Barometer
    101.45 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    99.93 kPa @ 10:59 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    1.1° C @ 11:14 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    5.8° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 6.6km/h @ 14:25 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    499W/m2 @ 13:25 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.9 @ 13:21 Tdy.

For the first time in a month there is a real chance that our pattern is going to change.

Not in the short term… It’s still bone dry.

But the long term has more consistent precipitation than I’ve seen since the spring.

20121004-070816.jpg

We were starting to see hints of this last week when precipitation popped up around the 10th, and then shifted back and forth as the week went on.

Now… Caveats: This remains a long term, high variability, forecast. No rain has appeared on the short, 7 day forecast. Also, the initial indications last week had pegged the first system at 60mm in a couple days. Now we are down to 33mm over 7 days and long term forecasts and the GFS in general, often overestimates the precipitation we get.

So there you have it. There might be a bit of relief coming for our drought… But at this point I think it’s going to be more like those few drops of water shared around from one small flask in the desert. It will keep us going, but we may just be looking at a mirage and must still wait for our oasis to appear.

One final kicker… From the research I’ve done, we need at least 140mm of rain in October to avoid setting an all time, 114 year record for dryness since July. if you click on the 1896 record in the last post you’ll see how much rain we need to catch up.

I give us a 30% chance of avoiding it.