Tue. Aug 21st, 2018

Relief coming but no saviour?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - SPECIAL AIR QUALITY STATEMENT IN EFFECT
    Issued: 9:22 PM PDT Monday 20 August 2018

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Monday 20 August 2018 - Monday night: Overcast. Widespread smoke. Low 11. Tuesday: Overcast. Widespread smoke. High 26. Humidex 31. UV index 3 or moderate. Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Widespread smoke. Low 11. Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 27. Wednesday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Thursday: Sunny. High 23. Thursday night: Clear. Low 11. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 24. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low 13. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 21.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    14.2° C
    -0.9 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.8 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    69 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    14.2° C
    Heat Index
    14.2° C
    Dewpoint
    8.6° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 2:50:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    05:44
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (79% full)
    Civil Set
    20:59
    Day Length
    13:22:16
    Day High
    17.2° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    14.2° C @ 02:48 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.8 kPa @ 02:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.75 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    14.2° C @ 02:48 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    17.2° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0.0km/h @ 00:05 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

For the first time in a month there is a real chance that our pattern is going to change.

Not in the short term… It’s still bone dry.

But the long term has more consistent precipitation than I’ve seen since the spring.

20121004-070816.jpg

We were starting to see hints of this last week when precipitation popped up around the 10th, and then shifted back and forth as the week went on.

Now… Caveats: This remains a long term, high variability, forecast. No rain has appeared on the short, 7 day forecast. Also, the initial indications last week had pegged the first system at 60mm in a couple days. Now we are down to 33mm over 7 days and long term forecasts and the GFS in general, often overestimates the precipitation we get.

So there you have it. There might be a bit of relief coming for our drought… But at this point I think it’s going to be more like those few drops of water shared around from one small flask in the desert. It will keep us going, but we may just be looking at a mirage and must still wait for our oasis to appear.

One final kicker… From the research I’ve done, we need at least 140mm of rain in October to avoid setting an all time, 114 year record for dryness since July. if you click on the 1896 record in the last post you’ll see how much rain we need to catch up.

I give us a 30% chance of avoiding it.