Fri. Nov 15th, 2019

Rainy weekend – Authoritative post on Winter

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PST Friday 15 November 2019 - Friday: Rain ending this morning then cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Windy early this morning. High 12. UV index 1 or low. Friday night: Cloudy. Rain beginning late this evening. Amount 5 mm. Low 7. Saturday: Rain. Amount 20 mm. High 11. Saturday night: Rain. Low 11. Sunday: Showers. High 15. Sunday night: Cloudy periods with 30 percent chance of showers. Low plus 5. Monday: Cloudy. High 9. Monday night: Cloudy. Low plus 2. Tuesday: Sunny. High 8. Tuesday night: Clear. Low plus 1. Wednesday: Sunny. High 9. Wednesday night: Clear. Low plus 1. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 9.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    8.6° C
    0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.11 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    Humidity
    99 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    8.6° C
    Heat Index
    8.6° C
    Dewpoint
    8.4° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 5:45:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    No Qualifying Rainfall mm
    Civil Rise
    06:53
    Moon Phase
    Waning gibbous (91% full)
    Civil Set
    17:13
    Day Length
    12:03:47
    Day High
    8.6° C @ 05:24 Tdy.
    Day Low
    8.1° C @ 00:02 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.24 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.03 kPa @ 04:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    8.1° C @ 00:02 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    8.6° C @ 05:24 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0km/h @ 00:05 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

Friday shouldn’t be too bad. Most of the rain that started last night should be done now but it will start up again over night and last through the weekend with a few rests here and there.

Sunday, Monday and Tuesday morning look like our coldest yet with a possibility of hitting the freezing mark. Just a heads up, Halloween is looking increasingly wet. It will still be a few days before we can be very sure but right now we have what looks like a strong bout of rain coming on the last days of October, ending Halloween night.

…….

Getting back to what seems to be a North Amearican fascination with the 2011 weather forecast,the NOAA has released their forecast calling for a cold and snowy winter in the Pacific Northwest.

Dr. Jeff Masters has a very in depth analysis of that forecast and the issue in a wider context. It is an extremely informative read… In short though, a growing amount of research (including this research just released yesterday) is showing that other atmospheric processes in the North Atlantic are having a significant effect on North American weather, and that record low summer and fall sea ice in the Arctic as well as the record low sunspot activity are likely influencing those North Atlantic patterns. Sunspot activity has increased after the low of the last 11 year Sunspot cycle but sea ice has not so the north atlantic atmospheric pattern will likely still heavily influence North American weather. So, the old rules of thumb around what happens during a La Nina and El Niño event may be less relevant.

Check out the blog post here. It’s very interesting reading.

2 thoughts on “Rainy weekend – Authoritative post on Winter

  1. Interesting article.  Fascinating to learn just how complicated forecasting can be.  There now seems to be consistency on a colder than normal winter here, but the precipitation is still a question mark depending on the source.  I see we might hit 0 this week though!

  2. As I was making the weather web page rounds this morning…the Weather Network is showing flakes for Wed….

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