Tue. Jul 23rd, 2019

Rainy weekend – Authoritative post on Winter

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Monday 22 July 2019 - Monday night: A few clouds. Low 12. Tuesday: Sunny. Becoming a mix of sun and cloud late in the morning. High 25. Humidex 26. UV index 7 or high. Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. 30 percent chance of showers in the evening and after midnight. Low 13. Wednesday: Sunny. High 23. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 11. Thursday: Sunny. High 26. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low 13. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 23. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 14. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 22. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low 13. Sunday: Sunny. High 23.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    15.0° C
    -0.3 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.8 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    Humidity
    91 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    15.0° C
    Heat Index
    15.0° C
    Dewpoint
    13.5° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 3:05:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    No Qualifying Rainfall mm
    Civil Rise
    04:58
    Moon Phase
    Last quarter (66% full)
    Civil Set
    21:51
    Day Length
    13:25:43
    Day High
    16.7° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    14.9° C @ 02:48 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.81 kPa @ 00:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.76 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    14.9° C @ 02:48 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    16.7° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0km/h @ 00:40 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

Friday shouldn’t be too bad. Most of the rain that started last night should be done now but it will start up again over night and last through the weekend with a few rests here and there.

Sunday, Monday and Tuesday morning look like our coldest yet with a possibility of hitting the freezing mark. Just a heads up, Halloween is looking increasingly wet. It will still be a few days before we can be very sure but right now we have what looks like a strong bout of rain coming on the last days of October, ending Halloween night.

…….

Getting back to what seems to be a North Amearican fascination with the 2011 weather forecast,the NOAA has released their forecast calling for a cold and snowy winter in the Pacific Northwest.

Dr. Jeff Masters has a very in depth analysis of that forecast and the issue in a wider context. It is an extremely informative read… In short though, a growing amount of research (including this research just released yesterday) is showing that other atmospheric processes in the North Atlantic are having a significant effect on North American weather, and that record low summer and fall sea ice in the Arctic as well as the record low sunspot activity are likely influencing those North Atlantic patterns. Sunspot activity has increased after the low of the last 11 year Sunspot cycle but sea ice has not so the north atlantic atmospheric pattern will likely still heavily influence North American weather. So, the old rules of thumb around what happens during a La Nina and El Niño event may be less relevant.

Check out the blog post here. It’s very interesting reading.

2 thoughts on “Rainy weekend – Authoritative post on Winter

  1. Interesting article.  Fascinating to learn just how complicated forecasting can be.  There now seems to be consistency on a colder than normal winter here, but the precipitation is still a question mark depending on the source.  I see we might hit 0 this week though!

  2. As I was making the weather web page rounds this morning…the Weather Network is showing flakes for Wed….

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