Wed. Dec 12th, 2018

Rainy weekend – Authoritative post on Winter

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Tuesday 11 December 2018 - Tuesday night: Rain ending early this evening then cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Becoming partly cloudy this evening. Fog patches developing after midnight. Low plus 1. Wednesday: Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers in the morning. Rain beginning in the morning. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. Amount 10 to 15 mm. High 6. Wednesday night: Periods of rain. Amount 15 to 25 mm. Temperature steady near 6. Thursday: Periods of rain. High 6. Thursday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 5. Friday: Rain. High 8. Friday night: Rain. Low 6. Saturday: Rain. High 8. Saturday night: Rain. Low 7. Sunday: Rain. High 9. Sunday night: Rain. Low 7. Monday: Rain. High 9.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    -0.4° C
    -0.5 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.83 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    99 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    -0.4° C
    Heat Index
    -0.4° C
    Dewpoint
    -0.5° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 4:55:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:26
    Moon Phase
    Waxing crescent (24% full)
    Civil Set
    16:59
    Day Length
    12:13:03
    Day High
    2.6° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    -0.4° C @ 04:53 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.83 kPa @ 04:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.14 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    -2.1° C @ 04:08 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    2.6° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 4.8km/h @ 00:10 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

Friday shouldn’t be too bad. Most of the rain that started last night should be done now but it will start up again over night and last through the weekend with a few rests here and there.

Sunday, Monday and Tuesday morning look like our coldest yet with a possibility of hitting the freezing mark. Just a heads up, Halloween is looking increasingly wet. It will still be a few days before we can be very sure but right now we have what looks like a strong bout of rain coming on the last days of October, ending Halloween night.

…….

Getting back to what seems to be a North Amearican fascination with the 2011 weather forecast,the NOAA has released their forecast calling for a cold and snowy winter in the Pacific Northwest.

Dr. Jeff Masters has a very in depth analysis of that forecast and the issue in a wider context. It is an extremely informative read… In short though, a growing amount of research (including this research just released yesterday) is showing that other atmospheric processes in the North Atlantic are having a significant effect on North American weather, and that record low summer and fall sea ice in the Arctic as well as the record low sunspot activity are likely influencing those North Atlantic patterns. Sunspot activity has increased after the low of the last 11 year Sunspot cycle but sea ice has not so the north atlantic atmospheric pattern will likely still heavily influence North American weather. So, the old rules of thumb around what happens during a La Nina and El Niño event may be less relevant.

Check out the blog post here. It’s very interesting reading.

2 thoughts on “Rainy weekend – Authoritative post on Winter

  1. Interesting article.  Fascinating to learn just how complicated forecasting can be.  There now seems to be consistency on a colder than normal winter here, but the precipitation is still a question mark depending on the source.  I see we might hit 0 this week though!

  2. As I was making the weather web page rounds this morning…the Weather Network is showing flakes for Wed….

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