Fri. Oct 19th, 2018

Rainy weekend – Authoritative post on Winter

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Friday 19 October 2018 - Friday: Fog dissipating this morning then a mix of sun and cloud. High 16. UV index 2 or low. Friday night: Partly cloudy. Fog developing this evening. Low 6. Saturday: Fog dissipating in the morning then a mix of sun and cloud. High 20. UV index 2 or low. Saturday night: Fog. Low plus 4. Sunday: Fog. High 20. Sunday night: Fog. Low 6. Monday: Fog. High 15. Monday night: Cloudy. Low 9. Tuesday: Periods of rain. High 14. Tuesday night: Rain. Low 9. Wednesday: Periods of rain. High 13. Wednesday night: Rain. Low 8. Thursday: Rain. High 12.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    7.5° C
    0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.6 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    NE 0.2 km/h
    gusting 4.8 km/h
    Humidity
    98 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    7.5° C
    Heat Index
    7.5° C
    Dewpoint
    7.2° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    33 W/m2
    Last Updated: 9:20:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:13
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (76% full)
    Civil Set
    18:54
    Day Length
    13:04:07
    Day High
    8.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    7.3° C @ 08:36 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.6 kPa @ 09:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.36 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    6.0° C @ 08:01 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    8.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 1.7km/h @ 07:55 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    33W/m2 @ 09:14 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

Friday shouldn’t be too bad. Most of the rain that started last night should be done now but it will start up again over night and last through the weekend with a few rests here and there.

Sunday, Monday and Tuesday morning look like our coldest yet with a possibility of hitting the freezing mark. Just a heads up, Halloween is looking increasingly wet. It will still be a few days before we can be very sure but right now we have what looks like a strong bout of rain coming on the last days of October, ending Halloween night.

…….

Getting back to what seems to be a North Amearican fascination with the 2011 weather forecast,the NOAA has released their forecast calling for a cold and snowy winter in the Pacific Northwest.

Dr. Jeff Masters has a very in depth analysis of that forecast and the issue in a wider context. It is an extremely informative read… In short though, a growing amount of research (including this research just released yesterday) is showing that other atmospheric processes in the North Atlantic are having a significant effect on North American weather, and that record low summer and fall sea ice in the Arctic as well as the record low sunspot activity are likely influencing those North Atlantic patterns. Sunspot activity has increased after the low of the last 11 year Sunspot cycle but sea ice has not so the north atlantic atmospheric pattern will likely still heavily influence North American weather. So, the old rules of thumb around what happens during a La Nina and El Niño event may be less relevant.

Check out the blog post here. It’s very interesting reading.

2 thoughts on “Rainy weekend – Authoritative post on Winter

  1. Interesting article.  Fascinating to learn just how complicated forecasting can be.  There now seems to be consistency on a colder than normal winter here, but the precipitation is still a question mark depending on the source.  I see we might hit 0 this week though!

  2. As I was making the weather web page rounds this morning…the Weather Network is showing flakes for Wed….

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