Rainy weekend – Authoritative post on Winter

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PDT Saturday 21 July 2018 - Saturday: Mainly sunny. High 27. UV index 8 or very high. Saturday night: Clear. Low 11. Sunday: Sunny. High 32. Humidex 34. UV index 8 or very high. Sunday night: Clear. Low 13. Monday: Sunny. High 34. Monday night: Clear. Low 14. Tuesday: Sunny. High 33. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 14. Wednesday: Sunny. High 32. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 14. Thursday: Sunny. High 28. Thursday night: Clear. Low 14. Friday: Sunny. High 27.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    23.1° C
    1.4 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.07 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    SW 0.1 km/h
    gusting 6.4 km/h
    Humidity
    47 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    23.1° C
    Heat Index
    23.1° C
    Dewpoint
    11.1° C
    UV
    6.0
    Solar
    860 W/m2
    Last Updated: 12:15:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    04:56
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (70% full)
    Civil Set
    21:54
    Day Length
    13:25:39
    Day High
    23.1° C @ 12:14 Tdy.
    Day Low
    12.3° C @ 06:21 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.13 kPa @ 08:59 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.95 kPa @ 03:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    12.3° C @ 06:21 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    23.1° C @ 12:14 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 5.2km/h @ 10:15 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    868W/m2 @ 12:14 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    6.0 @ 12:09 Tdy.

Friday shouldn’t be too bad. Most of the rain that started last night should be done now but it will start up again over night and last through the weekend with a few rests here and there.

Sunday, Monday and Tuesday morning look like our coldest yet with a possibility of hitting the freezing mark. Just a heads up, Halloween is looking increasingly wet. It will still be a few days before we can be very sure but right now we have what looks like a strong bout of rain coming on the last days of October, ending Halloween night.

…….

Getting back to what seems to be a North Amearican fascination with the 2011 weather forecast,the NOAA has released their forecast calling for a cold and snowy winter in the Pacific Northwest.

Dr. Jeff Masters has a very in depth analysis of that forecast and the issue in a wider context. It is an extremely informative read… In short though, a growing amount of research (including this research just released yesterday) is showing that other atmospheric processes in the North Atlantic are having a significant effect on North American weather, and that record low summer and fall sea ice in the Arctic as well as the record low sunspot activity are likely influencing those North Atlantic patterns. Sunspot activity has increased after the low of the last 11 year Sunspot cycle but sea ice has not so the north atlantic atmospheric pattern will likely still heavily influence North American weather. So, the old rules of thumb around what happens during a La Nina and El Niño event may be less relevant.

Check out the blog post here. It’s very interesting reading.

2 Replies to “Rainy weekend – Authoritative post on Winter”

  1. Interesting article.  Fascinating to learn just how complicated forecasting can be.  There now seems to be consistency on a colder than normal winter here, but the precipitation is still a question mark depending on the source.  I see we might hit 0 this week though!

  2. As I was making the weather web page rounds this morning…the Weather Network is showing flakes for Wed….

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