Wed. Aug 22nd, 2018

Rainy week, warmer late, bent jet.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - SPECIAL AIR QUALITY STATEMENT IN EFFECT
    Issued: 6:04 PM PDT Tuesday 21 August 2018

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Tuesday 21 August 2018 - Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Widespread smoke. Low 12. Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. Widespread smoke becoming local smoke near noon. High 31. Humidex 34. UV index 7 or high. Wednesday night: Partly cloudy. Local smoke. Low 12. Thursday: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High 23. Thursday night: Cloudy periods with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 12. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 22. Friday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 12. Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 20. Saturday night: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 13. Sunday: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High 18. Sunday night: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 11. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    30.8° C
    -1.7 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.4 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    SSE 5.8 km/h
    gusting 17.7 km/h
    Humidity
    27 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    30.8° C
    Heat Index
    30.8° C
    Dewpoint
    9.6° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    118 W/m2
    Last Updated: 18:25:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    05:44
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (83% full)
    Civil Set
    20:59
    Day Length
    13:22:16
    Day High
    33.3° C @ 16:03 Tdy.
    Day Low
    11.6° C @ 06:16 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.91 kPa @ 08:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.39 kPa @ 17:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    11.6° C @ 06:16 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    33.3° C @ 16:03 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 13.2km/h @ 17:00 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    705W/m2 @ 14:18 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    2.7 @ 13:01 Tdy.

Expect the rain to continue for a bit this morning before tapering off. It will return overnight and tomorrow morning and continue through most of the day tomorrow (Wednesday). Here is Wednesday at 10AM. Still plenty of moisture around.

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I know Alberni Elementary has a date set for Rathtrevor tomorrow. Here’s hoping Parksville is a little drier, as it shows to be on the map above, Im sure the kids will have fun no matter what.

After Wedsnesday we should start drying out. There is still a chance of some showers Thursday morning, but much less so. And by Friday and Saturday it is looking dry.

The cause of our icky weather is a weak, but broad and stationary low centered over the Pacific. Here it is, on Wednesday.
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It is positioned under an upper low that is contorting the Jetstream.
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This bent jet is slow to move away.

It remains severely bent as far out as the forecast can see to July 2nd. In fact it becomes even more contorted and meandering, which allows the low off our coast to linger for nearly the same amount of time.
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This lingering, meandering, contorted behaviour of the jetstream is what caused the extreme heat in Alaska and the Alberta floods, and the floods a week earlier in Europe..

Here is a Jetstream map from the 16th, a couple days before the flooding rains hit Alberta. This was the set up. I’ve added some notation to point out the key areas. Notice that on the opposite side of the hemisphere there was almost a mirror image over Europe, which was the aftermath of record heat in Northern Europe and 400 year floods in Germany.

We do not live in isolation.

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