Rain First, then an Arctic warning from EC

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Saturday 21 April 2018 - Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. 30 percent chance of showers this afternoon. High 12. UV index 4 or moderate. Saturday night: Mainly cloudy. Low plus 2. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 15. Sunday night: Clear. Low plus 1. Monday: Sunny. High 19. Monday night: Clear. Low plus 3. Tuesday: Sunny. High 20. Tuesday night: Clear. Low plus 5. Wednesday: Sunny. High 20. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 6. Thursday: Sunny. High 21. Thursday night: Clear. Low 7. Friday: Sunny. High 19.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    8.3° C
    1.2 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.55 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    S 8.8 km/h
    gusting 22.5 km/h
    Humidity
    73 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    6.7° C
    Heat Index
    8.3° C
    Dewpoint
    3.7° C
    UV
    0.9
    Solar
    292 W/m2
    Last Updated: 8:30:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    1.8 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    05:40
    Moon Phase
    Waxing crescent (36% full)
    Civil Set
    20:56
    Day Length
    13:17:51
    Day High
    8.3° C @ 08:25 Tdy.
    Day Low
    5.9° C @ 03:15 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    3.3mm/hr @ 00:20 Tdy.
    Day High Barometer
    102.55 kPa @ 08:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.62 kPa @ 00:15 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    3.7° C @ 05:55 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    8.3° C @ 08:25 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 20.9km/h @ 05:55 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    299W/m2 @ 08:29 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.9 @ 08:20 Tdy.

Expect showers throughout the day today. Nothing serious, but you will have a chance of getting wet all day.

On Saturday things get more serious. The rain will begin Friday night and go into the morning Saturday. We should get some breaks in the day on Saturday but a second, stronger wave will come through Saturday night and Sunday morning. The map below shows we can expect up to 30mm of rain (blue) in our Valley between 4AM Saturday and Sunday.

20131128-065700.jpg

The rain will bring warm winds possibly into the double digits.
20131128-070430.jpg

But don’t expect that warmth to stick around. The winds are going to shift through Sunday bringing in Arctic air and cold and possibly snow.

Sunday evening we should be back near zero.
20131128-071258.jpg

And as those temperatures fall, there will still be some precipitation around so there is a possibility for some snowflakes to fly, especially at higher elevations.
20131128-071647.jpg

But Monday will be the most interesting. As the deep freeze and Arctic outflow sets in, there will be strong Easterly winds hitting the East Coast. This might lead to some Strait effect snow in the Oceanside, Nanaimo and Gulf Island areas perhaps spilling over to us. The models are really not good at picking up this kind of activity, but you can see the winds and the little patch of snow forecast for Monday morning around Nanaimo.
20131128-072159.jpg
That will be something to watch and Environment Canada is issuing Special Weather statements about it that I will continue to post on the Facebook page and twitter account. If any warnings are posted, I will of course update this page but I wouldn’t expect those unto Saturday night at the earliest. Stay tuned.

Here is the latest statement:

Special weather statement continued for:
East Vancouver Island, B.C. (081300)
West Vancouver Island, B.C. (081400)
Inland Vancouver Island, B.C. (081500)

Colder conditions with some snow is expected to develop Monday.

A major change in the weather pattern is expected to occur Monday. A frontal system developing over the North Coast on Saturday will push southwards and cross the South Coast during the day Monday.

Outflow conditions will set up in the wake of the front with cold air from the B.C. Interior pushing out onto the BC coast. This modified Arctic air will interact with the milder marine air and snow is likely to develop in some coastal locations. The location and amount of snowfall are still quite uncertain at this time. The public is advised to closely monitor forecasts as we get closer to this event and confidence in the details of the pattern emerge.

Cold and generally dry conditions are expected to prevail along the coast behind the Arctic front from Tuesday through the work week.

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.