Rain First, then an Arctic warning from EC

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 08:15 AM PDT Friday 20 July 2018 - Friday: Mainly sunny. Increasing cloudiness early this afternoon then 30 percent chance of showers this afternoon. High 21. UV index 7 or high. Friday night: Clearing. Low 11. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 27. UV index 8 or very high. Saturday night: Clear. Low 11. Sunday: Sunny. High 33. Sunday night: Clear. Low 13. Monday: Sunny. High 35. Monday night: Clear. Low 14. Tuesday: Sunny. High 28. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 14. Wednesday: Sunny. High 27. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 14. Thursday: Sunny. High 27.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    17.5° C
    2.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.09 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    SSW 0.7 km/h
    gusting 6.4 km/h
    Humidity
    70 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    17.5° C
    Heat Index
    17.5° C
    Dewpoint
    12.0° C
    UV
    2.3
    Solar
    461 W/m2
    Last Updated: 9:30:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    04:54
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (59% full)
    Civil Set
    21:55
    Day Length
    13:25:36
    Day High
    17.5° C @ 09:29 Tdy.
    Day Low
    12.7° C @ 06:23 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.13 kPa @ 08:28 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.99 kPa @ 01:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    12.7° C @ 06:23 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    17.5° C @ 09:29 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 6.4km/h @ 08:25 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    499W/m2 @ 09:11 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    2.3 @ 09:26 Tdy.

Expect showers throughout the day today. Nothing serious, but you will have a chance of getting wet all day.

On Saturday things get more serious. The rain will begin Friday night and go into the morning Saturday. We should get some breaks in the day on Saturday but a second, stronger wave will come through Saturday night and Sunday morning. The map below shows we can expect up to 30mm of rain (blue) in our Valley between 4AM Saturday and Sunday.

20131128-065700.jpg

The rain will bring warm winds possibly into the double digits.
20131128-070430.jpg

But don’t expect that warmth to stick around. The winds are going to shift through Sunday bringing in Arctic air and cold and possibly snow.

Sunday evening we should be back near zero.
20131128-071258.jpg

And as those temperatures fall, there will still be some precipitation around so there is a possibility for some snowflakes to fly, especially at higher elevations.
20131128-071647.jpg

But Monday will be the most interesting. As the deep freeze and Arctic outflow sets in, there will be strong Easterly winds hitting the East Coast. This might lead to some Strait effect snow in the Oceanside, Nanaimo and Gulf Island areas perhaps spilling over to us. The models are really not good at picking up this kind of activity, but you can see the winds and the little patch of snow forecast for Monday morning around Nanaimo.
20131128-072159.jpg
That will be something to watch and Environment Canada is issuing Special Weather statements about it that I will continue to post on the Facebook page and twitter account. If any warnings are posted, I will of course update this page but I wouldn’t expect those unto Saturday night at the earliest. Stay tuned.

Here is the latest statement:

Special weather statement continued for:
East Vancouver Island, B.C. (081300)
West Vancouver Island, B.C. (081400)
Inland Vancouver Island, B.C. (081500)

Colder conditions with some snow is expected to develop Monday.

A major change in the weather pattern is expected to occur Monday. A frontal system developing over the North Coast on Saturday will push southwards and cross the South Coast during the day Monday.

Outflow conditions will set up in the wake of the front with cold air from the B.C. Interior pushing out onto the BC coast. This modified Arctic air will interact with the milder marine air and snow is likely to develop in some coastal locations. The location and amount of snowfall are still quite uncertain at this time. The public is advised to closely monitor forecasts as we get closer to this event and confidence in the details of the pattern emerge.

Cold and generally dry conditions are expected to prevail along the coast behind the Arctic front from Tuesday through the work week.

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.