Tue. Oct 15th, 2019

Potential Storm Clouds today. Hot Fall Fair!

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Tuesday 15 October 2019 - Tuesday night: Periods of rain. Amount 10 mm. Windy early this evening. Temperature steady near 11. Wednesday: Periods of rain ending late in the afternoon then cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Amount 10 to 20 mm. High 14. UV index 1 or low. Wednesday night: Cloudy. 60 percent chance of showers in the evening. Rain beginning near midnight. Amount 10 mm. Low 10. Thursday: Showers. High 13. Thursday night: Showers. Low 8. Friday: Rain. High 11. Friday night: Rain. Low 7. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud with 60 percent chance of showers. High 15. Saturday night: Cloudy periods with 30 percent chance of showers. Low plus 5. Sunday: Cloudy with 70 percent chance of showers. High 12. Sunday night: Periods of rain. Low 8. Monday: Rain. High 12.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    9.7° C
    -0.2 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    100.9 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    Humidity
    98 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    9.7° C
    Heat Index
    9.7° C
    Dewpoint
    9.4° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 21:25:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    No Qualifying Rainfall mm
    Civil Rise
    07:06
    Moon Phase
    Waning gibbous (95% full)
    Civil Set
    19:02
    Day Length
    13:04:57
    Day High
    10.5° C @ 12:48 Tdy.
    Day Low
    9.2° C @ 07:39 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.61 kPa @ 00:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    100.9 kPa @ 20:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    8.1° C @ 20:45 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    10.5° C @ 12:48 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 5km/h @ 20:55 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    142W/m2 @ 12:31 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    1.1 @ 12:30 Tdy.

The fall fair starts tonight at 5! Compared to earlier this week, the forecast has flip flopped for the better! We’ve gone from potential rain and clouds all week to sun and heat!

Thursday – Thunder threat.

There has been a lot of thunderstorm activity in our region over the past few weeks (at least relatively for our region) and this evening looks like a bit more might come around.

There is severe weather slated for the Interior of BC and Washington and that unstable air will leak North into our region.

Here is the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) forecast for this evening.. We will be just on the edges. Vancouver and Victoria and the East Island are the most likely places to see lightning starting around 2PM. This image is for 8PM when the potential is closest to the Alberni Valley.

20130905-090419.jpg

There will be potential for flooding in the Interior and Southern Alberta from the low that is creating this unstable weather. You can see the upper level (jetstream) low in the image below. It has been cutoff from the main jet further north.

20130905-070316.jpg

It will be lingering well into the weekend. So you might see that in your news casts.

Friday, Saturday, Sunday, sun after fog.

There is very little chance of showers after Friday. The most moisture we can expect to get will be from the fog and low cloud in the mornings, but things should clear up each day and give us perfect weather for the Fall Fair. I will be at the Transition Town booth in the big barn closest to Glenwood on Friday night and Saturday afternoon, so feel free to come over and say hi.

Next week dry?

The jetstream is quite strong right now, but it is to the North of us, allowing warmth and clearer skies to dominate.

The forecast has that remaining the case until Wednesday or Thursday when the jet slips south.

20130905-070717.jpg

But there is no forecast for a system to sweep in, so we shall see. As we saw with this week, forecasts change, sometimes a lot.

Welcome to Fall. 🙂