Tue. Jul 16th, 2019

Potential Storm Clouds today. Hot Fall Fair!

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Tuesday 16 July 2019 - Tuesday night: Mainly cloudy. 30 percent chance of showers early this evening. Rain beginning near midnight. Low 14. Wednesday: Rain ending late in the morning then cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Becoming windy near noon. High 22. UV index 3 or moderate. Wednesday night: Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers in the evening. Low 12. Thursday: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. High 19. Thursday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 8. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 23. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 10. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 25. Saturday night: Clear. Low 12. Sunday: Sunny. High 24. Sunday night: Clear. Low 12. Monday: Sunny. High 24.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    23.8° C
    -0.2 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.31 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    S 11 km/h
    gusting 29 km/h
    Humidity
    52 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    23.8° C
    Heat Index
    23.8° C
    Dewpoint
    13.4° C
    UV
    2.1
    Solar
    321 W/m2
    Last Updated: 17:25:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    1.5 mm since
    July 15, 2019 00:07
    Civil Rise
    04:49
    Moon Phase
    Full (100% full)
    Civil Set
    22:00
    Day Length
    13:25:19
    Day High
    24.6° C @ 13:36 Tdy.
    Day Low
    15.5° C @ 02:27 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.7 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.31 kPa @ 17:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    15.5° C @ 02:27 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    24.6° C @ 13:36 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 15km/h @ 15:25 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    1194W/m2 @ 13:30 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    7.5 @ 12:43 Tdy.

The fall fair starts tonight at 5! Compared to earlier this week, the forecast has flip flopped for the better! We’ve gone from potential rain and clouds all week to sun and heat!

Thursday – Thunder threat.

There has been a lot of thunderstorm activity in our region over the past few weeks (at least relatively for our region) and this evening looks like a bit more might come around.

There is severe weather slated for the Interior of BC and Washington and that unstable air will leak North into our region.

Here is the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) forecast for this evening.. We will be just on the edges. Vancouver and Victoria and the East Island are the most likely places to see lightning starting around 2PM. This image is for 8PM when the potential is closest to the Alberni Valley.

20130905-090419.jpg

There will be potential for flooding in the Interior and Southern Alberta from the low that is creating this unstable weather. You can see the upper level (jetstream) low in the image below. It has been cutoff from the main jet further north.

20130905-070316.jpg

It will be lingering well into the weekend. So you might see that in your news casts.

Friday, Saturday, Sunday, sun after fog.

There is very little chance of showers after Friday. The most moisture we can expect to get will be from the fog and low cloud in the mornings, but things should clear up each day and give us perfect weather for the Fall Fair. I will be at the Transition Town booth in the big barn closest to Glenwood on Friday night and Saturday afternoon, so feel free to come over and say hi.

Next week dry?

The jetstream is quite strong right now, but it is to the North of us, allowing warmth and clearer skies to dominate.

The forecast has that remaining the case until Wednesday or Thursday when the jet slips south.

20130905-070717.jpg

But there is no forecast for a system to sweep in, so we shall see. As we saw with this week, forecasts change, sometimes a lot.

Welcome to Fall. 🙂