Mon. Oct 22nd, 2018

Possible snow tonight… next week is interesting

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Monday 22 October 2018 - Monday: Cloudy. Becoming a mix of sun and cloud near noon. Fog dissipating near noon. High 16. UV index 2 or low. Monday night: Clear. Fog patches developing near midnight. Low plus 4. Tuesday: Sunny. Increasing cloudiness in the afternoon then showers. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 14. UV index 2 or low. Tuesday night: Showers. Low 8. Wednesday: Showers. High 12. Wednesday night: Periods of rain. Low 9. Thursday: Showers. High 11. Thursday night: Rain. Low 7. Friday: Showers. High 14. Friday night: Periods of rain. Low 7. Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 13. Saturday night: Periods of rain. Low 8. Sunday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 13.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    7.2° C
    0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.61 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    99 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    7.2° C
    Heat Index
    7.2° C
    Dewpoint
    7.0° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    25 W/m2
    Last Updated: 8:55:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.3 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:17
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (95% full)
    Civil Set
    18:48
    Day Length
    13:03:38
    Day High
    7.4° C @ 01:51 Tdy.
    Day Low
    6.1° C @ 05:15 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.62 kPa @ 02:28 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.56 kPa @ 04:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    6.1° C @ 05:15 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    7.4° C @ 01:51 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0.0km/h @ 00:05 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    26W/m2 @ 08:48 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

We could have a small accumulation of snow tonight if the fogs sticks around and the temperature stays about where it is now. I wouldn’t expect any serious accumulation in town, but on Sutton Pass and other high areas there should be a significant amount that will fall before turning to mostly rain.

That said the forecast models, GFS, CMC and Euro really has us on the brink of snow with temperatures only barely above freezing all weekend… but I think we’ll probably still break out above the snow line and get a bunch of rain this weekend.

Next week it starts to get more interesting. We will have some persistently cold air, no major Arctic air, but definitely below freezing, and it is not slated to really warm up next weekend when a low splits off from Alaska and slides down the coast… it is those lows that seem to draw air in from the Interior and give lake effect snow to Parksville and Nanaimo, and sometimes us (but generally not nearly as much). Here is the GFS model…

This is precipitation for next Sunday (the 20th) night… notice the low right off of the West Coast that is tracking in a southerly direction.

And here is temperature for the same period… very obviously, cold enough for snow.

So keep your eyes open for that late next week.

We will be getting lots of rain between now and Tuesday.

4 thoughts on “Possible snow tonight… next week is interesting

Comments are closed.