Possible snow tonight… next week is interesting

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ENDED, Port Alberni
    Issued: 04:51 AM PDT Wednesday 20 June 2018

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Wednesday 20 June 2018 - Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. 30 percent chance of showers late this afternoon with risk of thunderstorms. High 31. Humidex 34. UV index 8 or very high. Wednesday night: Partly cloudy. 30 percent chance of showers this evening with risk of thunderstorms. Low 12. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 27. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low 13. Friday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 23. Friday night: Clear. Low 11. Saturday: Sunny. High 27. Saturday night: Clear. Low 11. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud with 30 percent chance of showers. High 23. Sunday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Monday night: Cloudy periods. Low 10. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    14.8° C
    -0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.52 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    92 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    14.8° C
    Heat Index
    14.8° C
    Dewpoint
    13.5° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    27 W/m2
    Last Updated: 6:10:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    04:28
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (51% full)
    Civil Set
    22:12
    Day Length
    13:20:51
    Day High
    17.4° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    14.8° C @ 05:28 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.55 kPa @ 03:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.51 kPa @ 05:13 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    14.8° C @ 05:28 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    17.4° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0.3km/h @ 00:30 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    30W/m2 @ 06:09 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

We could have a small accumulation of snow tonight if the fogs sticks around and the temperature stays about where it is now. I wouldn’t expect any serious accumulation in town, but on Sutton Pass and other high areas there should be a significant amount that will fall before turning to mostly rain.

That said the forecast models, GFS, CMC and Euro really has us on the brink of snow with temperatures only barely above freezing all weekend… but I think we’ll probably still break out above the snow line and get a bunch of rain this weekend.

Next week it starts to get more interesting. We will have some persistently cold air, no major Arctic air, but definitely below freezing, and it is not slated to really warm up next weekend when a low splits off from Alaska and slides down the coast… it is those lows that seem to draw air in from the Interior and give lake effect snow to Parksville and Nanaimo, and sometimes us (but generally not nearly as much). Here is the GFS model…

This is precipitation for next Sunday (the 20th) night… notice the low right off of the West Coast that is tracking in a southerly direction.

And here is temperature for the same period… very obviously, cold enough for snow.

So keep your eyes open for that late next week.

We will be getting lots of rain between now and Tuesday.

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