Wed. Aug 22nd, 2018

Possible snow tonight… next week is interesting

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - SPECIAL AIR QUALITY STATEMENT IN EFFECT
    Issued: 6:04 PM PDT Tuesday 21 August 2018

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Tuesday 21 August 2018 - Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Widespread smoke. Low 12. Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. Widespread smoke becoming local smoke near noon. High 31. Humidex 34. UV index 7 or high. Wednesday night: Partly cloudy. Local smoke. Low 12. Thursday: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High 23. Thursday night: Cloudy periods with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 12. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 22. Friday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 12. Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 20. Saturday night: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 13. Sunday: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High 18. Sunday night: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 11. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    30.8° C
    -1.7 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.4 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    SSE 5.8 km/h
    gusting 17.7 km/h
    Humidity
    27 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    30.8° C
    Heat Index
    30.8° C
    Dewpoint
    9.6° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    118 W/m2
    Last Updated: 18:25:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    05:44
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (83% full)
    Civil Set
    20:59
    Day Length
    13:22:16
    Day High
    33.3° C @ 16:03 Tdy.
    Day Low
    11.6° C @ 06:16 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.91 kPa @ 08:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.39 kPa @ 17:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    11.6° C @ 06:16 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    33.3° C @ 16:03 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 13.2km/h @ 17:00 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    705W/m2 @ 14:18 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    2.7 @ 13:01 Tdy.

We could have a small accumulation of snow tonight if the fogs sticks around and the temperature stays about where it is now. I wouldn’t expect any serious accumulation in town, but on Sutton Pass and other high areas there should be a significant amount that will fall before turning to mostly rain.

That said the forecast models, GFS, CMC and Euro really has us on the brink of snow with temperatures only barely above freezing all weekend… but I think we’ll probably still break out above the snow line and get a bunch of rain this weekend.

Next week it starts to get more interesting. We will have some persistently cold air, no major Arctic air, but definitely below freezing, and it is not slated to really warm up next weekend when a low splits off from Alaska and slides down the coast… it is those lows that seem to draw air in from the Interior and give lake effect snow to Parksville and Nanaimo, and sometimes us (but generally not nearly as much). Here is the GFS model…

This is precipitation for next Sunday (the 20th) night… notice the low right off of the West Coast that is tracking in a southerly direction.

And here is temperature for the same period… very obviously, cold enough for snow.

So keep your eyes open for that late next week.

We will be getting lots of rain between now and Tuesday.

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