Fri. Sep 20th, 2019

Possible snow tonight… next week is interesting

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Friday 20 September 2019 - Friday night: Partly cloudy. Fog patches developing before morning. Low 12. Saturday: Becoming cloudy in the morning. Rain beginning in the afternoon. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 19. UV index 2 or low. Saturday night: Rain. Amount 15 to 25 mm. Low 13. Sunday: Rain. High 18. Sunday night: Cloudy periods. Low 7. Monday: Periods of rain. High 14. Monday night: Periods of rain. Low 11. Tuesday: Periods of rain. High 21. Tuesday night: Cloudy periods. Low 10. Wednesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 16. Wednesday night: Cloudy periods. Low 9. Thursday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 16.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    16.0° C
    -1.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.91 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    Humidity
    85 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    16.0° C
    Heat Index
    16.0° C
    Dewpoint
    13.5° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 21:30:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    No Qualifying Rainfall mm
    Civil Rise
    06:29
    Moon Phase
    Last quarter (60% full)
    Civil Set
    19:54
    Day Length
    13:12:35
    Day High
    22.9° C @ 14:01 Tdy.
    Day Low
    13.7° C @ 07:43 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.91 kPa @ 21:28 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.71 kPa @ 02:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    13.7° C @ 07:43 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    22.9° C @ 14:01 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 13km/h @ 17:30 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    861W/m2 @ 11:26 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    4.7 @ 12:41 Tdy.

We could have a small accumulation of snow tonight if the fogs sticks around and the temperature stays about where it is now. I wouldn’t expect any serious accumulation in town, but on Sutton Pass and other high areas there should be a significant amount that will fall before turning to mostly rain.

That said the forecast models, GFS, CMC and Euro really has us on the brink of snow with temperatures only barely above freezing all weekend… but I think we’ll probably still break out above the snow line and get a bunch of rain this weekend.

Next week it starts to get more interesting. We will have some persistently cold air, no major Arctic air, but definitely below freezing, and it is not slated to really warm up next weekend when a low splits off from Alaska and slides down the coast… it is those lows that seem to draw air in from the Interior and give lake effect snow to Parksville and Nanaimo, and sometimes us (but generally not nearly as much). Here is the GFS model…

This is precipitation for next Sunday (the 20th) night… notice the low right off of the West Coast that is tracking in a southerly direction.

And here is temperature for the same period… very obviously, cold enough for snow.

So keep your eyes open for that late next week.

We will be getting lots of rain between now and Tuesday.

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