Fri. Sep 21st, 2018

OK, Here’s the Good News

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT
    Issued: 4:25 PM PDT Thursday 20 September 2018

    Forecast Issued 7:22 PM PDT Thursday 20 September 2018 - Thursday night: Rain at times heavy. Amount 15 to 25 mm except 60 mm over northern sections. Temperature steady near 12. Friday: Periods of rain. Risk of a thunderstorm in the afternoon. Amount 10 to 20 mm. High 15. UV index 1 or low. Friday night: Periods of rain. Amount 10 to 20 mm. Low 12. Saturday: Rain. High 16. Saturday night: Showers. Low 11. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Sunday night: Clear. Low 8. Monday: Sunny. High 21. Monday night: Clear. Low 7. Tuesday: Sunny. High 20. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 8. Wednesday: Sunny. High 20.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    12.0° C
    -0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.55 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    98 %
    Rain Rate
    1.8 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    12.0° C
    Heat Index
    12.0° C
    Dewpoint
    11.7° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 22:50:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    13.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    06:30
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (86% full)
    Civil Set
    19:53
    Day Length
    13:12:31
    Day High
    13.7° C @ 15:31 Tdy.
    Day Low
    11.7° C @ 07:28 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    10.7mm/hr @ 21:10 Tdy.
    Day High Barometer
    101.98 kPa @ 08:43 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.55 kPa @ 22:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    11.7° C @ 07:28 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    13.7° C @ 15:31 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 1.6km/h @ 05:10 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    299W/m2 @ 15:23 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    1.8 @ 15:22 Tdy.

It’s not going to be like this Aaaalllll summer, I promise.

The long range forecasts have been pretty consistent over the past week or so that our no-summer should only continue until August. At this point, there looks to be some real hope for August 1 long weekend, but I don’t want to go into specifics simply because it’s so way far out there right now.

There is also hope for an ‘Indian Summer’, meaning a pretty nice September/October/November period.

Brett Anderson has the first crack at that forecast here. The European models that he uses were pretty much bang on with the weather that we got out here for the summer. So it’s worth paying attention to.

I should also let you know that I’ve included a link to the current sea-surface temperature anomaly maps under the Weather Reports–>Marine section in the links here. Here is the map published July 18 (the “Full Global” shows our region best).

Temperature Anomaly Map July 18, 2011

Notice the blue, cooler than normal water off our coast is still holding strong. That is the culprit for our cold weather. Also notice the El Nino waters down of the coast of Equador are showing some blue. THe latest El Nino advisory has this to say:

“tropical Pacific anomalies indicate ENSO-neutral conditions, but the atmospheric circulation continues to be characteristic of La Niña…. Forecasts from a majority of the ENSO models, indicate ENSO-neutral will continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 (three-month average in the Nino-3.4 index between –0.5oC and +0.5oC; Fig. 6). However, over the last couple of weeks, forecasts created by the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) have begun to indicate the re-emergence of La Niña during Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 (Fig. 7).”

So at this point it looks like our weather patterns will continue to be La Nina dominated for the foreseeable future.

2 thoughts on “OK, Here’s the Good News

  1. Thanks for that Chris – I’ve been telling my family it would warm up for August, so it’s good to see some verification.  I’ve also been thinking that solid high pressure over the central US might be blocking the jet stream from its normal summer pattern for us out here on the coast.

  2. Thanks for that Chris – I’ve been telling my family it would warm up for August, so it’s good to see some verification.  I’ve also been thinking that solid high pressure over the central US might be blocking the jet stream from its normal summer pattern for us out here on the coast.

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