September 26, 2020

October looking mighty dry

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PDT Saturday 26 September 2020 - Saturday: Showers ending late this afternoon then mainly cloudy. Risk of a thunderstorm this afternoon. High 16. UV index 2 or low. Saturday night: Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers this evening. Low 8. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 17. UV index 6 or high. Sunday night: Cloudy periods. Low 7. Monday: Sunny. High 22. Monday night: Clear. Low 7. Tuesday: Sunny. High 27. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 9. Wednesday: Sunny. High 27. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 10. Thursday: Sunny. High 23. Thursday night: Clear. Low 10. Friday: Sunny. High 22.

We don’t have any official data from Environment Canada yet as their Airport station is reporting ‘missing’ values for all of October.

However, my station has only recorded 16.5mm of rain for the month so far. Other stations in town have recorded similar amounts. Normal is around 200mm.

It is still early, but the way the forecast models are shaping up, this may be all the precipitation we receive in October.

I’ve scanned through the October rainfall numbers going back to 1894. Currently, if Alberniweather and the Airport have received the same amount of rain (which is unlikely) then we would be tied for 2nd place with 1936 for driest October ever recorded. It is unusual for us to receive less than 100mm of rain (particularly since 1980). It is rare for us to receive less than 50mm of rain.

Since 1894, the Octobers with the least rain, as recorded at the Beaver Creek, Port Alberni City Hall, Robertson Creek, Somass, and Airport station are:
2002 Robertson:18.5mm Airport:14.2mm
1936 Beaver Creek: 32.5mm City Hall: 16.5mm
2013: Alberniweather: 16.5mm Maquinna: 23.8mm
1925 Beaver Creek: 27.7mm City Hall: 18.0mm
1895 Beaver Creek:18.3mm

Top 5 in the past 119 years is significant, especially considering the 66 year gap between 1936 and 2002.

We will see what the official results are at the end of the month. For now… More fog and clear afternoons and evening.