December 5, 2020

No end in sight to dry weather

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Friday 04 December 2020 - Friday night: Cloudy. Fog patches developing near midnight. Low minus 1. Saturday: Cloudy. Becoming a mix of sun and cloud in the afternoon. Fog patches dissipating early in the afternoon. High 7. UV index 1 or low. Saturday night: Becoming cloudy in the evening then rain. Temperature steady near plus 4. Sunday: Rain. High 6. Sunday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 5. Monday: Rain. High 7. Monday night: Rain. Low plus 5. Tuesday: Periods of rain. High 8. Tuesday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 4. Wednesday: Cloudy. High 8. Wednesday night: Cloudy. Low plus 2. Thursday: Cloudy. High 7.

I just pulled up the GFS forecast again and the end to the dry weather that I mentioned was possible a couple days ago has now disappeared completely from the long range. Of course long range forecasts are the least certain.

Surely though, this is unusual for a forecast reaching to Oct 14:

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Notice the temperatures steadily declining. We should see frost soon if the clear nights continue.

October is normally our 4th driest month of the year (November is #1).

We usually get 65mm of rain in September and 42mm in August. We usually get 194mm of rain in October.

Since August 1st we have only measured 8.4mm of rain at Alberniweather. We might get a few sprinkles on Friday but certainly nothing that will approach the 100mm of rain we should have gotten in the past two months. If we are still in this position on October 14, as the forecast currently says, then it will be hard to call this anything other than a drought.

Agriculture Canada provides some numbers to determine ‘drought’ conditions for farmers in Canada.

You can check out their website here:

Here is the latest 60 day rolling data:

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As you can see the grey area in our area amounts to more than 100mm below average precipitation.

The El Niño based forecasts and other long range stuff has been released from EC and Accuweather. All point to a weak El Niño. This would not provide the big precipitation nor the big warmth we often get with a strong El Niño and the monthly forecasts are running with that.

2 thoughts on “No end in sight to dry weather

  1. I was looking through those Ag Canada charts the other day. As I recall, I had to look back to December ’11 to bring the accumulated precip up to normal. The GFS this morning is saying 4.4 mm for Friday, but I’ll bet it’s not even going to be that. Having said that, I just spent a ton of money on winter cycling gear, just in case!

  2. Ya I will be surprised if we actually get 4mm tomorrow. That said, it hardly matters. September is a right off now. It looks like we will have to hope the end of October comes on strong.

    At the very least, it’d be nice to get a bit of a change in weather if only for a little interest! 🙂

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