September 23, 2020

No end in sight to dry weather

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH , Port Alberni
    Issued: 4:43 PM PDT Wednesday 23 September 2020

    Forecast Issued 4:38 PM PDT Wednesday 23 September 2020 - Wednesday night: Showers at times heavy with risk of a thunderstorm. Amount 10 to 15 mm except 30 mm near thunderstorms. Windy this evening. Low 12. Thursday: Showers with risk of a thunderstorm. Amount 10 to 15 mm. High 16. UV index 1 or low. Thursday night: Cloudy. 60 percent chance of showers early in the evening. Rain beginning in the evening. Amount 15 to 25 mm. Low 11. Friday: Showers. Windy. High 18. Friday night: Rain. Low 10. Saturday: Periods of rain. High 20. Saturday night: Rain. Low 11. Sunday: Rain. High 17. Sunday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 12. Monday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 18. Monday night: Cloudy periods. Low 11. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 21.

I just pulled up the GFS forecast again and the end to the dry weather that I mentioned was possible a couple days ago has now disappeared completely from the long range. Of course long range forecasts are the least certain.

Surely though, this is unusual for a forecast reaching to Oct 14:

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Notice the temperatures steadily declining. We should see frost soon if the clear nights continue.

October is normally our 4th driest month of the year (November is #1).

We usually get 65mm of rain in September and 42mm in August. We usually get 194mm of rain in October.

Since August 1st we have only measured 8.4mm of rain at Alberniweather. We might get a few sprinkles on Friday but certainly nothing that will approach the 100mm of rain we should have gotten in the past two months. If we are still in this position on October 14, as the forecast currently says, then it will be hard to call this anything other than a drought.

Agriculture Canada provides some numbers to determine ‘drought’ conditions for farmers in Canada.

You can check out their website here:

Here is the latest 60 day rolling data:

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As you can see the grey area in our area amounts to more than 100mm below average precipitation.

The El Niño based forecasts and other long range stuff has been released from EC and Accuweather. All point to a weak El Niño. This would not provide the big precipitation nor the big warmth we often get with a strong El Niño and the monthly forecasts are running with that.

2 thoughts on “No end in sight to dry weather

  1. I was looking through those Ag Canada charts the other day. As I recall, I had to look back to December ’11 to bring the accumulated precip up to normal. The GFS this morning is saying 4.4 mm for Friday, but I’ll bet it’s not even going to be that. Having said that, I just spent a ton of money on winter cycling gear, just in case!

  2. Ya I will be surprised if we actually get 4mm tomorrow. That said, it hardly matters. September is a right off now. It looks like we will have to hope the end of October comes on strong.

    At the very least, it’d be nice to get a bit of a change in weather if only for a little interest! 🙂

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