Neutral Pacific and the “S” word

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Sunday 22 July 2018 - Sunday night: Clear. Low 13. Monday: Sunny. High 32. Humidex 33. UV index 8 or very high. Monday night: Clear. Low 13. Tuesday: Sunny. High 34. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 13. Wednesday: Sunny. High 35. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 13. Thursday: Sunny. High 34. Thursday night: Clear. Low 14. Friday: Sunny. High 29. Friday night: Clear. Low 15. Saturday: Sunny. High 29.

  • Current Conditions
    15.7° C
    -0.8 ° C/hr
    101.97 kPa
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    79 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    15.7° C
    Heat Index
    15.7° C
    12.0° C
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 4:10:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (84% full)
    Civil Set
    Day Length
    Day High
    20.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    15.7° C @ 04:07 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    Day High Barometer
    101.97 kPa @ 02:59 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.96 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    15.7° C @ 04:07 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    20.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0.0km/h @ 00:05 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

First an update on El Niño, or the lack thereof. The latest EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) report is out from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Their observation:

During November 2012, the Pacific Ocean reflected ENSO-neutral conditions.
…it is considered unlikely that a fully coupled El Niño will develop during the next several months. ENSO-neutral is now favored through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13 and into spring 2013.

Since El Niño and its counter La Niña have a strong effect on our local climate and weather patterns, especially in winter, the lack of either of these ‘modes’ means it is much harder to predict overall weather patterns further out than the standard 5-7 day forecast.

So we are on our own this winter. Just gonna have to roll with the punches. 🙂

Focusing more on the immediate future. That ‘snow’ word has magically appeared in the forecast! You might have already noticed some sleet mixed in when it has been raining hard as the temperatures have cooled and the heavy rains pull more heat out of the air and bring the freezing level down.

This mornings images (just updated in the last couple minutes) shows the winds still blowing from the South and West around most of VI.


Yesterdays forecast run showed by Friday morning, the winds will turn around and start to blow from the Northwest, bringing more pronounced cold to all areas of the Island. White areas are freezing or below.


On Saturday evening Sunday morning things get interesting as a weak wet front pushes down against the cold… Top image below show rain showers pushing down, bottom image is temperatures.


This should set us up for some mixed rain and snow on Sunday morning.

2 Replies to “Neutral Pacific and the “S” word”

  1. It’ll be interesting to see what happens – EC is calling for simply, “snow or rain” in Sunday’s forecast, but the GFS is predicting very little in the way of precipitation for Saturday/Sunday.

  2. Ya I saw that too Bill. We will have to see just how much precipitation we actually get. The heavier it is, the greater the chance for heavy sleet. The lighter is though, it might keep us colder and have flakes in the air. Will be interesting.

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