September 25, 2020

Models flippy/floppy will it be dry cold or white cold?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Thursday 24 September 2020 - Thursday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers this evening. Rain at times heavy beginning late this evening. Risk of a thunderstorm early this evening. Amount 20 to 30 mm. Wind becoming southwest 40 to 60 km/h before morning. Low 13. Friday: Rain ending in the morning then mainly cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Wind southwest 40 to 60 km/h diminishing to 30 in the morning. High 18. UV index 3 or moderate. Friday night: Mainly cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Low 10. Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 17. Saturday night: Showers. Low 11. Sunday: Periods of rain. High 15. Sunday night: Periods of rain. Low 11. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 23. Monday night: Clear. Low 10. Tuesday: Sunny. High 23. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 10. Wednesday: Sunny. High 22.

So right off the top, gotta say that the weather models have been all over the place the past few days.

Yesterday they said the week would be completely dry (as did the EC forecast), today, they’re telling us there could be some sort of precipitation almost all week.

So really, any forecast more than 24 hours out is probably not worth much right now… at least until things settle down.

So… all that aside, here’s the deal. There was a skiff of whitestuff on the ground today, we can see the front sliding down over us right now on the Satellite. This should give us a chance of snow tonight. There doesn’t look to be much moisture in it, but hopefully we get a little.

Both the GFS and Canadian CMC has some instability on Tuesday and Wednesday that might bring us something too. What you can count on though is that it’s going to be pretty chilly. It will be well below normal (7-8C) for this time of year and it’s going to stay that way well into next weekend.

4 thoughts on “Models flippy/floppy will it be dry cold or white cold?

  1. I told my wife to expect some scattered light flurries beginning about 3 or 4 this afternoon, but looking ahead to the first week in March is when the next real moisture is expected. It’ll be interesting if the cold stays around that long.

  2. Looks to me like a nearly perfect set up for some pretty heavy Strait effect snow on Wednesday and Wednesday night for parts of east Vancouver island. Strong arctic outflow winds and a low just off the southern tip of the island, could lead to 10-20cm for parts of the east coast my bet would be southern sections, Nanaimo usually gets a good shot of snow with this set up. I’m sure Port Alberni will get a good coasting as well but not as much. Lets see how long E.C. takes to show this in their forecast cause I think it will end up happening.

  3. It is snowing right now from Nanaimo to the Coombs cutoff. The highway is also closed from Highway 19 to highway 4A. So if you are travelling from Nanaimo, turn off at Parksville to get to Port

  4. monty: I think you’re bang on. Wednesday could definitely be a fun ride.

    There is potential even tonight for them to get some Strait effect snow as the NW winds start to pick up but Wednesday will be the big one with the arctic front moving through.

    Whether we get anything is hard to say.. we’re often bone dry. Not unlike take.. it started snowing hard when I got to the Hwy 4 exit on my way home around 4:35… then I came upon a pretty bad accident. Didn’t look good at all… I was lucky enough to get through before everything got closed. THen it kept snowing until Cathedral Grove and up the East side of the hump…. got to the top and the sun came out! Couldn’t believe it. It was beautiful in town.

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