Fri. Nov 16th, 2018

Maybe not snow for Christmas… but is this weekend close enough?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PST Friday 16 November 2018 - Friday: Mainly cloudy. High 10. UV index 1 or low. Friday night: Mainly cloudy. Low plus 4. Saturday: Clearing in the morning. High 8. UV index 1 or low. Saturday night: Clear. Low minus 1. Sunday: Sunny. High 7. Sunday night: Clear. Low minus 2. Monday: Sunny. High 7. Monday night: Clear. Low plus 1. Tuesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 8. Tuesday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low plus 5. Wednesday: Periods of rain. High 10. Wednesday night: Rain. Low 6. Thursday: Rain. High 10.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    11.1° C
    0.9 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.51 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    NE 7.3 km/h
    gusting 16.1 km/h
    Humidity
    78 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    11.1° C
    Heat Index
    11.1° C
    Dewpoint
    7.4° C
    UV
    0.7
    Solar
    257 W/m2
    Last Updated: 9:40:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    06:55
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (61% full)
    Civil Set
    17:12
    Day Length
    12:04:02
    Day High
    11.1° C @ 02:44 Tdy.
    Day Low
    9.8° C @ 06:45 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.51 kPa @ 09:28 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.21 kPa @ 00:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    8.4° C @ 07:01 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    11.1° C @ 02:44 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 10.6km/h @ 09:25 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    264W/m2 @ 09:35 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.7 @ 09:28 Tdy.

So it’s increasingly looking like there is not much chance for a White Christmas Morning. More on that in a bit…

However, there is at least a chance that we could have flakes in the air over the weekend and even into next week.

There is some arctic high pressure just now pressing into the southern Interior. Nothing like what we had in mid-November, but it will still be there.

The GFS has us in the Valley getting just below freezing over the weekend with little bits of precipitation filtering in thanks to a low that is going to generate just off the coast of Washington and then wobble around off the West Coast without really going anywhere. By Monday or Tuesday it is slated to finally make landfall around NW Washington state, which very often brings that lake effect snow across Georgia Strait and onto the East Coast.

Here’s the model output:

Precip Dec 16 GFS text
Precip Dec 16 GFS text

Dec 16 GFS Temp text
Dec 16 GFS Temp text

Dec 16 GFS Time text
Dec 16 GFS Time text

So that all adds up to some possibility for flakes in the air and snow on the ground, especially at modestly high elevations (like the lake, hump, sutton pass especially) over the next few days.

As you can see… the middle of the week, right around Christmas Eve, is when it starts to get really interesting. And probably really wet.

Here’s the rest of the long range precipitation forecast through Christmas and Boxing Day and onto New Years:

Dec 16 GFS Time text
Dec 16 GFS Time text

Dec 16 GFS Time text
Dec 16 GFS Time text

But that doesn’t really do it justice. Check out the model.

Blue is rain, pink is snow.

Morning of December 23rd:

December 23rd Morning precip
December 23rd Morning precip

Morning of December 24th:

December 24th Morning precip
December 24th Morning precip

Morning of December 25th:

December 25th Morning precip
December 25th Morning precip

Morning of December 26th:

December 26th Morning precip
December 26th Morning precip

So, sorry folks, but……

“It’s Startin’ to Look a Lot Like, a Wet, West Coast, Christmas”

🙂

12 thoughts on “Maybe not snow for Christmas… but is this weekend close enough?

  1. Very Awesome indeed! I was so excited this morning knowing you were going to post a new blog, an knowing it would run into christmas!!Although its not totally what i was hoping for, at least now, i can wish even harder for snow! Thanks Chris

  2. Thanks gals 🙂 I like to think that the beauty of a forecast coming from someone like me, who actually doesn’t know anything officially, is that you can always take the positive spin out of it no matter what I ‘forecast’.

    So really, we might still get 2ft of snow for Christmas! Who knows!? 😀

  3. I’m still holding out for the chance, perhaps naively, that the cold air next week will stick around long enough to bring snow on Christmas.

  4. Chris, to answer your question about my cam, it’s a dlink DCS-900 internet cam in a sewer Tee on the roof. My server grabs an image from it every 5 minutes to put on the webpages. Then every 15 minutes makes a movie out of the last 36 (or 72) images. I am planning on making a second webcam page for all the area cams in the new year once the new highway 4 cams come online.

  5. Cool thanks Mike! That’s a nice camera! It’s in a Sewer Tee? lol. Awesome. 😀

    Right price too. Maybe that will be my next purchase…. would really like a camera pointed towards Mt. Arrowsmith.

    What do you use to make the movies?

  6. Chris,
    My server (running Fedora Core 9) has a little commandline program called ImageMagick. That’s what I use to imprint the date/time on the pictures, and to combine the pictures into the 3 movies (2 short, 1 long). It looks more like a slideshow than a movie, per se. I’m just waiting for the new cams to come online then I’ll make up a new page with links for all the cams out here.

  7. Something else with my cam, I run power to it via a PoE setup. That limits the network speed to 10mbps, but for the pics, that’s plenty fast. And it means I only had to run an ethernet cable up to the cam. There’s a breakout box in the Tee with the cam that splits the power and data back to their proper plugs.

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