Sat. Aug 17th, 2019

May 2013 recap: Warm and Wet – Warm and dry summer predicted

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Friday 16 August 2019 - Friday night: Partly cloudy. Low 15. Saturday: Mainly cloudy. High 24. Humidex 27. UV index 6 or high. Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Becoming cloudy overnight with 30 percent chance of drizzle before morning. Low 15. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud with 40 percent chance of drizzle. High 23. Sunday night: Clear. Low 13. Monday: Sunny. High 24. Monday night: Cloudy periods. Low 14. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 22. Tuesday night: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Low 14. Wednesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 20. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 12. Thursday: Sunny. High 22.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    17.0° C
    -0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.52 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    Humidity
    85 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    17.0° C
    Heat Index
    17.0° C
    Dewpoint
    14.5° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 4:15:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    No Qualifying Rainfall mm
    Civil Rise
    05:37
    Moon Phase
    Waning gibbous (96% full)
    Civil Set
    21:07
    Day Length
    13:23:16
    Day High
    17.5° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    17.0° C @ 03:38 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.62 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.52 kPa @ 03:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    17.0° C @ 03:38 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    17.5° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 3km/h @ 00:20 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

It was a warmer and wetter than normal May. The average temperature in May was 13.2C and we received 85mm of rain. This is 2.0C above normal for temperature and 10mm above normal for rainfall compared to the 1970-2000 normal daily averages for May at Environment Canada .

I am going to omit my station and some values from the EC station this month because of the work I did relocating my station and a few days of missing data from EC which I believe may skew the averages significantly. Otherwise, these will be a city wide average of the three Islandweather stations in the City and the Airport EC station where applicable. This month hopefully we can include all 5 local stations. Details are below.

Average Daily Temperature difference: +2.1C
Alberniweather:13.5C (not included due to relocation)
Environment Canada Airport: 12.9C (not included due to missing values)
Alberni Elementary:13.4C
Maquinna: 13.0C
Neptune Canada: 13.5C
Overall Average: 13.2C
Environment Canada Normal: 12.7C

Average Minimum Daily Temperature difference: +2.6C
Alberniweather: 8.9C (not inc)
EC: 6.9C
AES: 8.6C
MAQ: 8.6C
NEP: 8.8C
Overall Average: 8.2C
Environment Canada Normal: 5.6C

Average Maximum Daily Temperature difference: +0.9C
Alberniweather: 19.0C(not inc)
EC: 18.8C
AES: 18.6C
MAQ: 18.3C
NEP: 18.7C
Overall Average: 18.6C
Environment Canada Normal: 17.7C

Average Rainfall difference: +10mm
Alberniweather: 46.5mm(not inc: it missed rain days)
EC: 64.4mm (not inc: it missed rain days)
AES: 85.2mm
MAQ: 84.8C
NEP: NA (not measured)
Overall Average: 85.0mm
Environment Canada Normal: 75mm

Meteorologically Speaking… Summer is here!
(Meteorological Seasons are: June-Aug, Sept-Nov, Dec-Feb, Mar-May)

It looks like we have reached the end of the rainy season and we will now turn drier.
The Peak reported this morning that The Weather Network expects a warmer than normal and dry summer. The latest forecast out this morning from Accuweather (which uses the European global weather model, considered the best in the world for medium to long term forecasting) is that June is going to be notably drier and warmer than we have seen in the past few ‘June-uary’ years.

Here is next week:
20130605-085755.jpg

So it looks like the warmth is going to stick around for a while, but not the wet. Our normal rainfall for June is 49.4mm.

We should come to expect warmer than normal summers as the data from Environment Canada shows temperatures have risen 1.4C since 1949 and continue to do so and we match that trend. Nationally though they are getting slightly wetter, perhaps due to more storm activity in Central, Eastern and Atlantic Canada, but I think in our local climate, they are actually getting drier. That is still something I need to research but have been unable to lately due to my main computer being in the shop the last month.