I’m going to use the precipitation maps because the models aren’t going to be able capture the differences between snow and rain.
I was out in our backyard in the sun this afternoon and the ground was frozen solid. That’s going to mean until we get some real warm wind and air temperatures, any snow that falls will stick immediately, and any rain that falls will freeze.
The first chance for snow will be Sunday afternoon on the South Island.
Only lightly precipitation expected up to 4PM Sunday and not any in the Valley
From 4PM to 4AM Monday things pick up, especially on the West Coast. In our area, we are looking at around 8mm.
So I’m thinking much of it will fall as snow, maybe 5-8cm but it won’t last. The temperature is set to be near 7C by mid Monday morning and that can only mean rain.
Here’s hoping no one needs to be on the road early Monday morning. I would expect freezing rain and snow especially on the passes and in shady spots.
Please drive carefully. Let’s hope the snow hangs on a little through Monday, but at this point it looks like it will be all wet by then. And there is more wet, and possibly wind, coming soon after.