July 2014 – The heat was on – Drought continues – Threatens water and Fish

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Sunday 20 May 2018 - Sunday night: Partly cloudy. Fog patches developing overnight. Low 9. Monday: Clearing in the morning. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 24. UV index 7 or high. Monday night: Clear. Low 9. Tuesday: Sunny. High 28. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 12. Wednesday: Sunny. High 29. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 11. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 27. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low 11. Friday: Sunny. High 22. Friday night: Clear. Low 11. Saturday: Sunny. High 23.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    17.7° C
    0.9 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.68 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    SSW 8.4 km/h
    gusting 17.7 km/h
    Humidity
    65 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    17.7° C
    Heat Index
    17.7° C
    Dewpoint
    11.0° C
    UV
    1.4
    Solar
    514 W/m2
    Last Updated: 18:10:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    04:49
    Moon Phase
    Waxing crescent (38% full)
    Civil Set
    21:43
    Day Length
    13:15:45
    Day High
    18.6° C @ 15:56 Tdy.
    Day Low
    12.5° C @ 05:28 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.7 kPa @ 13:59 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.43 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    12.5° C @ 05:28 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    18.6° C @ 15:56 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 18.3km/h @ 13:25 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    1283W/m2 @ 15:26 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    7.6 @ 14:05 Tdy.

June dry, now July hot… heat continues through August
(forecast for next week or two included below!)


Temperatures well above normal.  Rainfall normal (which isn’t much, since it’s our driest month of the year historically).

For the month of July we were above normal in the City and Airport for average, minimums and maximum temperatures.

Rainfall was a little below normal in the City but almost exactly normal for the Airport.  July is our driest month though so 30 millimetres of rain doesn’t go very far.


Fire season heats up:

The consistently warm and dry weather led us to experience a pretty early and intense start to the fire season.  Here is an animated map (click for larger/to repeat) of the country showing the ‘fire weather’ since the summer solstice and the fires started all over Western Canada but especially in the Northwest Territories and the northern Interior of BC and Washington State.

Fire Weather and Fire spots Solstice 2014 to August 4 – From Natural Resources Canada’s “Canadian Wildland Fire Information System

Effects of last year’s drought affecting us now.

As was reported on CBC Radio Victoria this morning due the unprecedented dry spell that started last July and really lasted through the historic October-January dry period this fall and winter, the mountain lakes and snowpack were at a great disadvantage to start this summer.

That has led to our first water restriction in a few years in the City of Port Alberni and to a crisis at Cowichan Lake with the River being at unprecedented low levels for this time of year.

Warm weather to continue through August

The long range models still have us dry and warm right through next week and into next week.  The University of Washington models were suggesting possible cooling and some rain by Sunday or Monday but that appears to be diminishing in probability.  That will mean another half month of dry and hot weather.

The longer range Canadian Ensemble Model (not-mobile friendly link) also had some rain and cooler temperatures starting this weekend but it now looks like temperatures are set to build again Sunday through Tuesday with the closest sign of rain way out past the 15th.

August2014CMCTemps August2014RainCMC

 

 

 
Brett Anderson’s analysis of other models indicates that we can expect “very warm” weather at the end of August as well, so I won’t be surprised if we are still talking about drought and concerns about fish returning in a months time.

Stay safe out there!  No Campfires.  Water responsibly. But enjoy this weather as much as you can!

See you at the lake!


 

Average Daily Temperature for June:

Alberniweather: 20.1° C
Alberni Elementary School : 20.1° C
Maquinna Elementary School: 19.7° C
Neptune Canada Station: 22.5° C
Overall City Average: 20.6° C
Environment Canada Airport: 19.6° C

1981-2010 Env Canada Normal (Robertson Creek): 18.3° C
City Stations Diff from normal: +2.3° C
Official (Airport) Difference from normal: +1.3° C


Average Minimum Daily Temperature for June:

Alberniweather: 13.9° C
AES: 14.0° C
MAQ: 13.6° C
NEP: 15.6° C
Overall City Average: 14.3° C
Environment Canada Airport: 11.7° C

1981-2010 Env. Canada Normal (Robertson Creek): 10.9° C
City Stations Difference from normal: +3.4° C
Official (Airport) Difference from normal: +0.8 C


Average Maximum Daily Temperature for June:

Alberniweather: 27.0° C
AES: 26.5° C
MAQ: 26.9° C
NEP: 26.9° C
Overall City Average: 26.8° C
Environment Canada Airport: 27.5° C
1981-2010 Env Canada Normal (Robertson Creek): 25.6° C
City Stations Difference from normal: +1.2° C
Official (Airport) Difference from normal: +1.9° C


Average Precipitation for June:

Alberniweather: 21.8 mm
AES: 25.2 mm
MAQ: 25.2 mm
NEP: NA (not measured)
Overall City Average: 24.1 mm
EC: 30.4 mm

1981-2010 Env Canada Normal (Robertson Creek): 31.0 mm
City Stations Diff. normal: -6.9 mm (78% of normal)
Official (Airport) Diff. from  normal: -0.6 mm (98% of normal)

 


Comparison to recent February’s at Alberniweather (only).

2013:  Temperatures were slightly warmer this July than last.  We actually got far more rain this year than last July’s 2.8mm.  But the drought that began last July seems to still be echoing this July with low water levels.

2012:  July 2012 was much cooler but a little drier.

2011:  July 2011 was much cooler with a little more rain.

2010:  July 2010 was a little cooler but nearly bone dry.

2009:  July 2009 was quite similar to this month but a little drier.

2008:  July 2008 was similar to this year with cooler evenings and a little drier.

One Reply to “July 2014 – The heat was on – Drought continues – Threatens water and Fish”

  1. Thanks for the analysis and numbers Chris! My measure of a nice hot summer day is when we reach or exceed 30C, and using EC numbers from the airport, we’ve done that for the past 9 days straight, and for a total of 13 days in July 2014. In recent years, we have to go back to 2009 to beat that number – that year we had 14 days over 30C in July, and we also reached a high of 40C on July 29th of that year.

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