August 5, 2020

Inversion Time – Flurries then Snow then Rain

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Wednesday 05 August 2020 - Wednesday: Sunny. Increasing cloudiness this afternoon then showers. Fog patches dissipating this morning. High 26. Humidex 29. UV index 8 or very high. Wednesday night: Rain. Low 15. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud with 40 percent chance of showers. High 21. UV index 6 or high. Thursday night: Cloudy periods with 40 percent chance of showers. Low 11. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud with 40 percent chance of showers. High 19. Friday night: Cloudy. Low 11. Saturday: Clearing. High 24. Saturday night: Clear. Low 11. Sunday: Sunny. High 28. Sunday night: Cloudy periods. Low 13. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 22. Monday night: Cloudy periods. Low 13. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 21.

Buckle your seat belts we might be in for an eventful week.

All of the forecasts say we can expect spotty precipitation the first half of the week, followed by a strong pacific front Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Today and Tuesday there will be a chance for flurries or drizzle. Stay safe on the roads as there will likely be ice as the roads thaw and freeze and thaw and freeze.

Like last week, today and Tuesday will see most of the action concentrated on the North, Southeast and West coasts of the Island as you can see in the map here:

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The Alberni Valley should only see hints of this moisture until the winds shift to the South on Thursday.

All of the forecasts say we are now into an inversion situation (warm air aloft, cold air sticking to the ground, especially in Valleys like ours). That means all precipitation will be starting as rain in the warm air above and then potentially freezing as it comes down either as snow, or snow pellets or freezing rain.

All of the forecasts say the transition from our cold snap temperatures well below zero, to temperatures far enough above zero to make rain will be potentially messy.

Case in Point, the Canadian “GEM” model forecast for the week. Notice the temperatures stay below zero until Thursday when there is a triple threat of 30cm of snow, some freezing rain, followed by good old fashioned rain:

SpotX TempSpotx Precip

So if you are driving today, be aware of changing conditions on the roads especially on the passes.

And be aware that by Wednesday/Thursday things are going to get messy, here is the precipitation chart for 4AM Thursday to 4AM Friday. It shows 16mm of precipitation. That could be 16mm of rain, 15cm of snow, or most likely some mix of snow, freezing rain and rain.

Whatever happens, it looks like the party starts Thursday morning between 7 and 10AM.

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