Thu. Nov 14th, 2019

Inversion Time – Flurries then Snow then Rain

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Thursday 14 November 2019 - Thursday night: Rain. Becoming windy overnight. Low 8. Friday: Rain ending in the morning then cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Windy early in the morning. High 11. Friday night: Cloudy. Rain beginning late in the evening. Low 6. Saturday: Rain. High 11. Saturday night: Rain. Low 9. Sunday: Showers. High 15. Sunday night: Cloudy. Low plus 5. Monday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 9. Monday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low plus 5. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 9. Tuesday night: Clear. Low plus 2. Wednesday: Sunny. High 9.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    8.3° C
    -0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.35 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    Humidity
    98 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    8.3° C
    Heat Index
    8.3° C
    Dewpoint
    8.0° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 18:00:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    No Qualifying Rainfall mm
    Civil Rise
    06:52
    Moon Phase
    Waning gibbous (93% full)
    Civil Set
    17:14
    Day Length
    12:03:37
    Day High
    9.2° C @ 13:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    5.9° C @ 07:42 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.74 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.35 kPa @ 17:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    5.2° C @ 04:04 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    9.2° C @ 13:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 3km/h @ 13:25 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    176W/m2 @ 11:56 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    1.0 @ 11:54 Tdy.

Buckle your seat belts we might be in for an eventful week.

All of the forecasts say we can expect spotty precipitation the first half of the week, followed by a strong pacific front Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Today and Tuesday there will be a chance for flurries or drizzle. Stay safe on the roads as there will likely be ice as the roads thaw and freeze and thaw and freeze.

Like last week, today and Tuesday will see most of the action concentrated on the North, Southeast and West coasts of the Island as you can see in the map here:

wa_pcp24.36.0000

The Alberni Valley should only see hints of this moisture until the winds shift to the South on Thursday.

All of the forecasts say we are now into an inversion situation (warm air aloft, cold air sticking to the ground, especially in Valleys like ours). That means all precipitation will be starting as rain in the warm air above and then potentially freezing as it comes down either as snow, or snow pellets or freezing rain.

All of the forecasts say the transition from our cold snap temperatures well below zero, to temperatures far enough above zero to make rain will be potentially messy.

Case in Point, the Canadian “GEM” model forecast for the week. Notice the temperatures stay below zero until Thursday when there is a triple threat of 30cm of snow, some freezing rain, followed by good old fashioned rain:

SpotX TempSpotx Precip

So if you are driving today, be aware of changing conditions on the roads especially on the passes.

And be aware that by Wednesday/Thursday things are going to get messy, here is the precipitation chart for 4AM Thursday to 4AM Friday. It shows 16mm of precipitation. That could be 16mm of rain, 15cm of snow, or most likely some mix of snow, freezing rain and rain.

Whatever happens, it looks like the party starts Thursday morning between 7 and 10AM.

wa_pcp3.90.0000