Wed. Nov 13th, 2019

Inversion, fog… Then snow?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 9:23 PM PST Tuesday 12 November 2019 - Tuesday night: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of drizzle. Fog patches. Low 8. Wednesday: Mainly cloudy. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 11. UV index 1 or low. Wednesday night: Mainly cloudy. Low 6. Thursday: Periods of rain. High 11. Thursday night: Rain. Low 8. Friday: Showers. High 12. Friday night: Periods of rain. Low 6. Saturday: Rain. High 12. Saturday night: Rain. Low 9. Sunday: Showers. High 13. Sunday night: Cloudy periods. Low 6. Monday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 10.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    9.4° C
    -0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.22 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    Humidity
    94 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    9.4° C
    Heat Index
    9.4° C
    Dewpoint
    8.5° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 2:30:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    No Qualifying Rainfall mm
    Civil Rise
    06:50
    Moon Phase
    Waning gibbous (99% full)
    Civil Set
    17:15
    Day Length
    12:03:28
    Day High
    9.7° C @ 00:57 Tdy.
    Day Low
    9.4° C @ 02:19 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.22 kPa @ 02:28 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.18 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    9.4° C @ 02:19 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    9.7° C @ 00:57 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0km/h @ 00:05 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

The next couple days, until the weekend, are going to look and feel like our weather back in November and early December. Foggy. Chilly. And pretty hohum.

But then.

20120111-071707.jpg

Ok. just kidding!

That picture is from Cordova, Alaska, a place very much like ours. A little more used to rain than, 10 meters of snow, in a week!!. Thats where all the snow has gone this winter apparently. They are getting walloped in Western Alaska. Interestingly, they are breaking records set in 1996, the year Victoria got buried and had to call in the Army.

All that said, we do have snow in the forecast, but don’t get your hopes up yet. Its looking more like the same sort of meek centimeter or 2 rather than any serious accumulations.

We seem to have two recipes for snow on the Island:
– For East coast Nanaimo/Oceanside snow – A low dropping slowly south off the island then heading inland over Washington pulling cold air across the strait.
– For big Port Alberni snow – we need lots of deep cold air followed by a big shot of moisture off the Pacific

The longer range forecast is a little more interesting, showing the cold get a little stronger with a shot off the Pacific a day or two later, but it has not been stable or consistent so we will just have to wait until it can get within the 5 day window to be more sure.

At this point, Look for flurries starting Saturday night or Sunday and possibly a little more Monday night. After that, we will see.

2 thoughts on “Inversion, fog… Then snow?

  1. Hard to say isn’t it?  EC has increased the probability of snow for Sat-Mon, but the GFS is calling for only trace amounts until Wed-Thurs next week, when they predict a slight warm-up and over 150 mm at this point.

Comments are closed.