Tue. Mar 26th, 2019

Inversion, fog… Then snow?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Tuesday 26 March 2019 - Tuesday night: Mainly cloudy. 30 percent chance of showers early this evening with risk of a thunderstorm. Fog patches developing late this evening. Low plus 2. Wednesday: Clearing late in the morning. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 16. UV index 3 or moderate. Wednesday night: A few clouds. Fog patches developing overnight. Low plus 2. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 18. Thursday night: Clear. Low plus 2. Friday: Sunny. High 18. Friday night: Clear. Low plus 3. Saturday: Sunny. High 18. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low plus 5. Sunday: Cloudy. High 13. Sunday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 6. Monday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 12.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    11.4° C
    0.4 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.71 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    SSW 9.7 km/h
    gusting 16.1 km/h
    Humidity
    67 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    11.4° C
    Heat Index
    11.4° C
    Dewpoint
    5.5° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    50 W/m2
    Last Updated: 18:00:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    3.8 mm
    Day ET
    0.2 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    06:36
    Moon Phase
    Waning gibbous (61% full)
    Civil Set
    20:14
    Day Length
    13:24:52
    Day High
    11.9° C @ 17:16 Tdy.
    Day Low
    5.9° C @ 07:59 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    8.4mm/hr @ 05:35 Tdy.
    Day High Barometer
    101.79 kPa @ 13:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.29 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    3.9° C @ 00:16 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    11.9° C @ 17:16 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 14.5km/h @ 12:55 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    1046W/m2 @ 13:05 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    3.3 @ 13:04 Tdy.

The next couple days, until the weekend, are going to look and feel like our weather back in November and early December. Foggy. Chilly. And pretty hohum.

But then.

20120111-071707.jpg

Ok. just kidding!

That picture is from Cordova, Alaska, a place very much like ours. A little more used to rain than, 10 meters of snow, in a week!!. Thats where all the snow has gone this winter apparently. They are getting walloped in Western Alaska. Interestingly, they are breaking records set in 1996, the year Victoria got buried and had to call in the Army.

All that said, we do have snow in the forecast, but don’t get your hopes up yet. Its looking more like the same sort of meek centimeter or 2 rather than any serious accumulations.

We seem to have two recipes for snow on the Island:
– For East coast Nanaimo/Oceanside snow – A low dropping slowly south off the island then heading inland over Washington pulling cold air across the strait.
– For big Port Alberni snow – we need lots of deep cold air followed by a big shot of moisture off the Pacific

The longer range forecast is a little more interesting, showing the cold get a little stronger with a shot off the Pacific a day or two later, but it has not been stable or consistent so we will just have to wait until it can get within the 5 day window to be more sure.

At this point, Look for flurries starting Saturday night or Sunday and possibly a little more Monday night. After that, we will see.

2 thoughts on “Inversion, fog… Then snow?

  1. Hard to say isn’t it?  EC has increased the probability of snow for Sat-Mon, but the GFS is calling for only trace amounts until Wed-Thurs next week, when they predict a slight warm-up and over 150 mm at this point.

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