Tue. Dec 11th, 2018

Inversion, fog… Then snow?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PST Tuesday 11 December 2018 - Tuesday: Rain. Amount 15 to 25 mm. High 7. Tuesday night: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers early this evening then partly cloudy. Fog patches developing after midnight. Low plus 1. Wednesday: Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers in the morning. Rain beginning in the morning. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. Amount 10 to 15 mm. High 6. Wednesday night: Periods of rain. Low 6. Thursday: Periods of rain. High 6. Thursday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 5. Friday: Rain. High 8. Friday night: Rain. Low 6. Saturday: Rain. High 8. Saturday night: Rain. Low 7. Sunday: Rain. High 9. Sunday night: Rain. Low 7. Monday: Rain. High 9.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    3.3° C
    0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    100 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    NW 0.0 km/h
    gusting 4.8 km/h
    Humidity
    100 %
    Rain Rate
    2.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    3.3° C
    Heat Index
    3.3° C
    Dewpoint
    3.3° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    29 W/m2
    Last Updated: 10:50:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    36.6 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:25
    Moon Phase
    Waxing crescent (18% full)
    Civil Set
    16:59
    Day Length
    12:12:35
    Day High
    5.8° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    3.2° C @ 07:47 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    8.9mm/hr @ 07:16 Tdy.
    Day High Barometer
    101.45 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    100 kPa @ 10:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    1.5° C @ 08:47 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    5.8° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 3.8km/h @ 06:20 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    33W/m2 @ 10:49 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

The next couple days, until the weekend, are going to look and feel like our weather back in November and early December. Foggy. Chilly. And pretty hohum.

But then.

20120111-071707.jpg

Ok. just kidding!

That picture is from Cordova, Alaska, a place very much like ours. A little more used to rain than, 10 meters of snow, in a week!!. Thats where all the snow has gone this winter apparently. They are getting walloped in Western Alaska. Interestingly, they are breaking records set in 1996, the year Victoria got buried and had to call in the Army.

All that said, we do have snow in the forecast, but don’t get your hopes up yet. Its looking more like the same sort of meek centimeter or 2 rather than any serious accumulations.

We seem to have two recipes for snow on the Island:
– For East coast Nanaimo/Oceanside snow – A low dropping slowly south off the island then heading inland over Washington pulling cold air across the strait.
– For big Port Alberni snow – we need lots of deep cold air followed by a big shot of moisture off the Pacific

The longer range forecast is a little more interesting, showing the cold get a little stronger with a shot off the Pacific a day or two later, but it has not been stable or consistent so we will just have to wait until it can get within the 5 day window to be more sure.

At this point, Look for flurries starting Saturday night or Sunday and possibly a little more Monday night. After that, we will see.

2 thoughts on “Inversion, fog… Then snow?

  1. Hard to say isn’t it?  EC has increased the probability of snow for Sat-Mon, but the GFS is calling for only trace amounts until Wed-Thurs next week, when they predict a slight warm-up and over 150 mm at this point.

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