June 5, 2020

Hot and Dry in September breaking records.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PDT Friday 05 June 2020 - Friday: Mainly cloudy. 30 percent chance of showers late this afternoon. High 21. UV index 6 or high. Friday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 9. Saturday: Mainly cloudy with 70 percent chance of showers. High 15. UV index 5 or moderate. Saturday night: Cloudy periods with 40 percent chance of showers. Low 6. Sunday: Sunny. High 21. Sunday night: Clear. Low 10. Monday: Sunny. High 16. Monday night: Rain. Low 9. Tuesday: Rain. High 17. Tuesday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 11. Wednesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 18. Wednesday night: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Low 12. Thursday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 20.

Our wonderful stretch of dry and warm weather this September still does not have an end in sight. There is a break predicted on the long range forecast for the end of the month. (Sept 29) but I’m going to go out on a limb and say that there is some doubt there since forecasts 5 days or more out are generally ‘climatology’ based.

In other words, the long term forecasts from the GFS and Canadian models are often based largely on ‘what happened before’ around this time of year…. So if the pattern is exceptional–and surely we are approaching that now–then the long term forecasts likely won’t have more than a random chance of being correct. I may have to dig into the EC archives and see just how unusual this stretch has been.

In the meantime, keep the sunscreen handy and the fans on because we will be hitting record territory at 30C today and will be in the upper teens through the week.

Sunday Sept 16: 28.8C broke the record of 28.3C in 2008
Monday: Forecast of 30C would break 25.5C set in 1999

Basically if we hit 29C or higher at any point this week we will quite likely break a record and they all were set in either 1999 or 1995.

The normal temperature for this time of year is 21C.

Enjoy!