October 21, 2020

Has the Snow shoe finally dropped?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Wednesday 21 October 2020 - Wednesday night: A few clouds. Fog patches developing late this evening. Low zero. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 9. UV index 2 or low. Thursday night: Cloudy. Rain beginning near midnight. Low plus 3. Friday: Rain. Windy. High 6. Friday night: Clear. Low minus 2. Saturday: Sunny. High plus 4. Saturday night: Clear. Low minus 3. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 9. Sunday night: Cloudy periods. Low plus 1. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 9. Monday night: Cloudy periods. Low plus 4. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 10.

Over the past couple days anyone paying attention to a number of weather forecasts would have noticed some inconsistencies with this weeks forecast, especially later in the week.

Environment Canada had originally been calling for no chance of snow at all, while other models have consistently suggested some sort of late week cold that could bring us snow.

Well, with the frost yesterday and the even colder temperatures this morning… the shoe has dropped and so has the forecast. Expect a chance of flurries tonight and tomorrow morning. Nothing serious, no major accumulations, but there could be snow on the Hump and Sutton Pass.

But that’s not all. The GFS models especially and other forecasting sources at Accuweather here and here are calling for a possible repeat this Thursday of the northerly storm we got last Friday followed by a shot of quite cold weather.

The best illustration so far is the GFS Model:

Here is the short term week. (click for larger) The precipitation (not shown) is not huge, just flurries. With the exception of the very last day of the forecast, Monday, which has a major shot coming but with temperatures in the 3-4C range, so a possibility of snow changing to rain on Monday.

But the really impressive one is the long range. Which show consistent cold *plus* significant significant precipitation. This is potentially a real snow maker!
Here’s the Temperatures (top, horiz line is 0C) and pressures.

Here is the Precipitation over that period. All I can say is… Uhoh! 🙂

4 thoughts on “Has the Snow shoe finally dropped?

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