Tue. Dec 11th, 2018

Has the Snow shoe finally dropped?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PST Tuesday 11 December 2018 - Tuesday: Rain. Amount 15 to 25 mm. High 7. Tuesday night: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers early this evening then partly cloudy. Fog patches developing after midnight. Low plus 1. Wednesday: Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers in the morning. Rain beginning in the morning. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. Amount 10 to 15 mm. High 6. Wednesday night: Periods of rain. Low 6. Thursday: Periods of rain. High 6. Thursday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 5. Friday: Rain. High 8. Friday night: Rain. Low 6. Saturday: Rain. High 8. Saturday night: Rain. Low 7. Sunday: Rain. High 9. Sunday night: Rain. Low 7. Monday: Rain. High 9.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    3.4° C
    0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    100 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 1.6 km/h
    Humidity
    100 %
    Rain Rate
    2.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    3.4° C
    Heat Index
    3.4° C
    Dewpoint
    3.4° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    34 W/m2
    Last Updated: 10:55:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    36.6 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:25
    Moon Phase
    Waxing crescent (18% full)
    Civil Set
    16:59
    Day Length
    12:12:35
    Day High
    5.8° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    3.2° C @ 07:47 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    8.9mm/hr @ 07:16 Tdy.
    Day High Barometer
    101.45 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    100 kPa @ 10:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    1.5° C @ 08:47 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    5.8° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 3.8km/h @ 06:20 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    39W/m2 @ 10:54 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

Over the past couple days anyone paying attention to a number of weather forecasts would have noticed some inconsistencies with this weeks forecast, especially later in the week.

Environment Canada had originally been calling for no chance of snow at all, while other models have consistently suggested some sort of late week cold that could bring us snow.

Well, with the frost yesterday and the even colder temperatures this morning… the shoe has dropped and so has the forecast. Expect a chance of flurries tonight and tomorrow morning. Nothing serious, no major accumulations, but there could be snow on the Hump and Sutton Pass.

But that’s not all. The GFS models especially and other forecasting sources at Accuweather here and here are calling for a possible repeat this Thursday of the northerly storm we got last Friday followed by a shot of quite cold weather.

The best illustration so far is the GFS Model:

Here is the short term week. (click for larger) The precipitation (not shown) is not huge, just flurries. With the exception of the very last day of the forecast, Monday, which has a major shot coming but with temperatures in the 3-4C range, so a possibility of snow changing to rain on Monday.

But the really impressive one is the long range. Which show consistent cold *plus* significant significant precipitation. This is potentially a real snow maker!
Here’s the Temperatures (top, horiz line is 0C) and pressures.

Here is the Precipitation over that period. All I can say is… Uhoh! 🙂

4 thoughts on “Has the Snow shoe finally dropped?

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