Has the Snow shoe finally dropped?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Thursday 19 July 2018 - Thursday night: Partly cloudy. Windy early this evening. Low 11. Friday: Mainly cloudy. 30 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. High 21. UV index 5 or moderate. Friday night: Partly cloudy. Low 11. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 27. Saturday night: Clear. Low 11. Sunday: Sunny. High 33. Sunday night: Clear. Low 13. Monday: Sunny. High 35. Monday night: Clear. Low 14. Tuesday: Sunny. High 28. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 14. Wednesday: Sunny. High 27.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    14.6° C
    -0.2 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.01 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    SSW 5.1 km/h
    gusting 9.7 km/h
    Humidity
    81 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    14.6° C
    Heat Index
    14.6° C
    Dewpoint
    11.4° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 1:25:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    04:54
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (56% full)
    Civil Set
    21:55
    Day Length
    13:25:36
    Day High
    14.9° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    14.6° C @ 01:18 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.02 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102 kPa @ 00:43 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    14.6° C @ 01:18 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    14.9° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 5.1km/h @ 01:25 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

Over the past couple days anyone paying attention to a number of weather forecasts would have noticed some inconsistencies with this weeks forecast, especially later in the week.

Environment Canada had originally been calling for no chance of snow at all, while other models have consistently suggested some sort of late week cold that could bring us snow.

Well, with the frost yesterday and the even colder temperatures this morning… the shoe has dropped and so has the forecast. Expect a chance of flurries tonight and tomorrow morning. Nothing serious, no major accumulations, but there could be snow on the Hump and Sutton Pass.

But that’s not all. The GFS models especially and other forecasting sources at Accuweather here and here are calling for a possible repeat this Thursday of the northerly storm we got last Friday followed by a shot of quite cold weather.

The best illustration so far is the GFS Model:

Here is the short term week. (click for larger) The precipitation (not shown) is not huge, just flurries. With the exception of the very last day of the forecast, Monday, which has a major shot coming but with temperatures in the 3-4C range, so a possibility of snow changing to rain on Monday.

But the really impressive one is the long range. Which show consistent cold *plus* significant significant precipitation. This is potentially a real snow maker!
Here’s the Temperatures (top, horiz line is 0C) and pressures.

Here is the Precipitation over that period. All I can say is… Uhoh! ๐Ÿ™‚

4 Replies to “Has the Snow shoe finally dropped?”

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