Thu. Sep 20th, 2018

Has the Snow shoe finally dropped?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT
    Issued: 11:31 AM PDT Thursday 20 September 2018

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PDT Thursday 20 September 2018 - Thursday: Rain. Amount 10 mm. Temperature steady near 12. UV index 1 or low. Thursday night: Rain at times heavy. Amount 15 to 25 mm. Temperature steady near 11. Friday: Periods of rain. Risk of a thunderstorm in the afternoon. Amount 10 to 15 mm. High 15. UV index 1 or low. Friday night: Periods of rain. Low 11. Saturday: Rain. High 16. Saturday night: Showers. Low 11. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Sunday night: Clear. Low 8. Monday: Sunny. High 21. Monday night: Clear. Low 7. Tuesday: Sunny. High 20. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 8. Wednesday: Sunny. High 20.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    13.1° C
    0.0 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.96 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    90 %
    Rain Rate
    2.3 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    13.1° C
    Heat Index
    13.1° C
    Dewpoint
    11.5° C
    UV
    1.0
    Solar
    104 W/m2
    Last Updated: 12:10:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    1.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    06:30
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (83% full)
    Civil Set
    19:53
    Day Length
    13:12:31
    Day High
    13.3° C @ 11:32 Tdy.
    Day Low
    11.7° C @ 07:28 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    3.8mm/hr @ 12:03 Tdy.
    Day High Barometer
    101.98 kPa @ 08:43 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.87 kPa @ 01:28 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    11.7° C @ 07:28 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    13.3° C @ 11:32 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 1.6km/h @ 05:10 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    178W/m2 @ 10:44 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    1.3 @ 11:17 Tdy.

Over the past couple days anyone paying attention to a number of weather forecasts would have noticed some inconsistencies with this weeks forecast, especially later in the week.

Environment Canada had originally been calling for no chance of snow at all, while other models have consistently suggested some sort of late week cold that could bring us snow.

Well, with the frost yesterday and the even colder temperatures this morning… the shoe has dropped and so has the forecast. Expect a chance of flurries tonight and tomorrow morning. Nothing serious, no major accumulations, but there could be snow on the Hump and Sutton Pass.

But that’s not all. The GFS models especially and other forecasting sources at Accuweather here and here are calling for a possible repeat this Thursday of the northerly storm we got last Friday followed by a shot of quite cold weather.

The best illustration so far is the GFS Model:

Here is the short term week. (click for larger) The precipitation (not shown) is not huge, just flurries. With the exception of the very last day of the forecast, Monday, which has a major shot coming but with temperatures in the 3-4C range, so a possibility of snow changing to rain on Monday.

But the really impressive one is the long range. Which show consistent cold *plus* significant significant precipitation. This is potentially a real snow maker!
Here’s the Temperatures (top, horiz line is 0C) and pressures.

Here is the Precipitation over that period. All I can say is… Uhoh! 🙂

4 thoughts on “Has the Snow shoe finally dropped?

  1. Pingback: vermont snow shoe

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