Tue. Jul 16th, 2019

Has the Snow shoe finally dropped?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Monday 15 July 2019 - Monday night: Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers early this evening with risk of thunderstorms. Low 15. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. 30 percent chance of showers in the morning. High 25. Humidex 27. UV index 8 or very high. Tuesday night: Cloudy. Rain beginning in the evening. Low 14. Wednesday: Periods of rain. High 21. Wednesday night: Cloudy periods with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 9. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 21. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 11. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 21. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 22.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    15.8° C
    0.2 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.65 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    Humidity
    90 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    15.8° C
    Heat Index
    15.8° C
    Dewpoint
    14.1° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 4:00:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    1.5 mm since
    July 15, 2019 00:07
    Civil Rise
    04:49
    Moon Phase
    Full (100% full)
    Civil Set
    22:00
    Day Length
    13:25:19
    Day High
    16.7° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    15.5° C @ 02:27 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.7 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.64 kPa @ 03:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    15.5° C @ 02:27 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    16.7° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0km/h @ 01:20 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

Over the past couple days anyone paying attention to a number of weather forecasts would have noticed some inconsistencies with this weeks forecast, especially later in the week.

Environment Canada had originally been calling for no chance of snow at all, while other models have consistently suggested some sort of late week cold that could bring us snow.

Well, with the frost yesterday and the even colder temperatures this morning… the shoe has dropped and so has the forecast. Expect a chance of flurries tonight and tomorrow morning. Nothing serious, no major accumulations, but there could be snow on the Hump and Sutton Pass.

But that’s not all. The GFS models especially and other forecasting sources at Accuweather here and here are calling for a possible repeat this Thursday of the northerly storm we got last Friday followed by a shot of quite cold weather.

The best illustration so far is the GFS Model:

Here is the short term week. (click for larger) The precipitation (not shown) is not huge, just flurries. With the exception of the very last day of the forecast, Monday, which has a major shot coming but with temperatures in the 3-4C range, so a possibility of snow changing to rain on Monday.

But the really impressive one is the long range. Which show consistent cold *plus* significant significant precipitation. This is potentially a real snow maker!
Here’s the Temperatures (top, horiz line is 0C) and pressures.

Here is the Precipitation over that period. All I can say is… Uhoh! 🙂

4 thoughts on “Has the Snow shoe finally dropped?

  1. Pingback: vermont snow shoe

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