Tue. Jul 16th, 2019

Great White Blob

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Tuesday 16 July 2019 - Tuesday: Becoming a mix of sun and cloud this morning with 30 percent chance of showers this afternoon. Fog patches dissipating this morning. High 25. Humidex 27. UV index 8 or very high. Tuesday night: Cloudy. Rain beginning near midnight. Low 14. Wednesday: Rain ending late in the morning then cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 22. UV index 3 or moderate. Wednesday night: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Low 12. Thursday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 19. Thursday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 8. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 23. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 10. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 25. Saturday night: Clear. Low 12. Sunday: Sunny. High 24. Sunday night: Clear. Low 12. Monday: Sunny. High 24.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    16.0° C
    0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.65 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    Humidity
    89 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    16.0° C
    Heat Index
    16.0° C
    Dewpoint
    14.2° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 5:20:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    1.5 mm since
    July 15, 2019 00:07
    Civil Rise
    04:49
    Moon Phase
    Full (100% full)
    Civil Set
    22:00
    Day Length
    13:25:19
    Day High
    16.7° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    15.5° C @ 02:27 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.7 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.64 kPa @ 03:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    15.5° C @ 02:27 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    16.7° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0km/h @ 01:20 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

That could be a term used to describe most of Canada right now including our fair little town. Or it could also be used to describe the mass of cloud, wind, and rain/snow mustering in the Pacific. Check out the North Pacific pressure/satellite image below and you’ll see what I mean.

Even though EC is saying we’ll only get 5cm of snow tonight and 5 tomorrow morning plus 25mm of rain tomorrow afternoon, I’m going to put my money on the cold air sticking a little closer to home, giving us another relatively big dump.

Shovels READY!

I would highly recommend if you haven’t already to get out sometime today and shovel your walk, try to clear any buildup on your eavestroughs, and if you have a storm drain near you, clear that too… it’ll make a huge difference if we get a big downpour of rain.

12 thoughts on “Great White Blob

  1. Ya My snow blower is just waiting for this next event~~ LOOKS Huge !! Bring it on and Enjoy Happy Shovelin
    We are good for 30 cm ~~~

  2. How weird this weather is this morning/afternoon. I see the smoke/steam flumes from the mill indicating a South wind, but your station as well as mine show a North wind. Its like its twirling around in a circle in the valley. And then out at the airport, it shows East, which is completely opposite of the trend here in town.

  3. Well, I played with WxSim a bit, but unless your a rocket scientist, its nothing but baffling.

    If one knows what they are doing, I’m sure its a powerful program.

  4. wind and rain I DON”T think so
    more lkie more snow and more snow” and more snow said with me people let snow let snow” ok iam over it”

  5. you sure called this one Chris. I am starting (starting?!?) to get the feeling that EnvCan’s forecast models just don’t work in Port Alberni…. 🙁

  6. Does anyone think the kids are going back to school tomorrow? I have no idea if I should chance the roads in the morning. How come the weather network on t.v. is different from the weather network on the computer? Weird eh.

  7. Just wandering Chris if your prediction is for more snow tonight?? You seem to be the only accurate weather man, and have heard that maybe there is a chance?? Need to get out of town tomorrow..cheers!

  8. Kat:

    I think ECs forecast models are fine… what EC lacks is LOCAL interpretation and forecasting.

    There was a time when Port Alberni and many other small cities/communities had their own EC person in town.

    The ability to gather timely, on-the-ground information is key to proper forecasting because computer models and satellite images can only provide you so much.

    Combine that timely information with local knowledge of weather history and local features and you get a much better ability to warn people, or at least adjust.

    I also think the warning limits they’ve set for Inland VI are too low. They are out of date. People really do get bent out of shape over 5-10cm of snow here just as much as they do in Nanaimo, so I don’t know why, from a safety perspective, EC does not make the criteria the same in our region.

    Shan: I’m certainly not any more accurate… but this time I was less wrong than EC. 🙂 Weather forecasting is a science, an art, and a crap shoot. The proportions of which depend on whether you’re right or wrong in the publics’ eyes.

    Don’t beat up on the EC folks too much, they have an incredibly hard job that millions depend on for survival, business, etc. and in the end they are by no means in control of what happens, so really, it’s a losing situation. 🙂

    Tonight looks like it will be pretty quiet. Probably some flurries or drizzle, but nothing like yesterday.

  9. Chris,

    I chuckled when you said that people panic over 5cm of snow. IF you think about it, that really isn’t all that much. Now if that were 50cm of snow in one short dumping, then yes, a panic attack might be warranted. But for 5cm, I don’t think so.

    As for the latest snow dump, we’re just watching the last bits of slush slowly melt away now.

    Cheers!

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