Mon. Dec 9th, 2019

Getting back to Winter-ish

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Monday 09 December 2019 - Monday night: Mainly cloudy. Fog patches developing late this evening. Low plus 2. Tuesday: Periods of rain ending in the afternoon then cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High plus 5. Tuesday night: Mainly cloudy. Temperature steady near plus 4. Wednesday: Periods of rain. High 6. Wednesday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 4. Thursday: Rain. High 7. Thursday night: Showers. Low plus 3. Friday: Showers. High plus 5. Friday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low plus 2. Saturday: Cloudy. High 7. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low zero. Sunday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High plus 5.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    6.3° C
    -0.3 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.24 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    Humidity
    91 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    6.3° C
    Heat Index
    6.3° C
    Dewpoint
    5.0° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 18:55:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    No Qualifying Rainfall mm
    Civil Rise
    07:23
    Moon Phase
    Full (95% full)
    Civil Set
    16:59
    Day Length
    12:11:33
    Day High
    7.3° C @ 14:01 Tdy.
    Day Low
    4.6° C @ 07:46 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.54 kPa @ 10:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.23 kPa @ 17:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    4.6° C @ 07:46 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    7.3° C @ 14:01 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 2km/h @ 12:20 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    195W/m2 @ 12:02 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.8 @ 11:29 Tdy.

The final weekend of the Olympic games likely won’t be as wet as the first weekend. (It was wet I know!) But it will still be wet. For the next week we have a pretty respectable 110mm of rain in the forecast.

Doesn’t look like any major events will hit us. Just some days or evenings of good steady rain.

I did also want to mention a report that was released a few days ago. For the past few years, a common refrain from some corners of the climate community has been that there could be more or stronger hurricanes in a warmed world. Scientists acknowledged a possibility, but there was no hard evidence, or at least any hard research to back that up.

Well, now there is, and the verdict is a bit of both.

The research is published here, in Nature Geoscience, and it says:

it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes. However, future projections based on theory and high-resolution dynamical models consistently indicate that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. Existing modelling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6–34%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modelling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre.

Now of course we don’t get tropical storms here directly. But we do certainly have periods, especially in the October/November/December timeframe when former tropical storms “curl” back towards us from Japan and the West Pacific and give a little extra punch to our storms.

2% isnt much in terms of wind … but a 20% increase in precipitation certainly would not be very welcome down on 3rd ave.

2 thoughts on “Getting back to Winter-ish

  1. Well, I bit the bullet and ordered the upgrade from the wxtoimg software I have been trying.. inital results look good, especially with the proper antenna in the air. I’m just waiting for the next few passes to go by, and it will start generating multi-pass composite images now too. I feel like a kid in a candy store.

  2. Now Nick just needs the actual weather receiver, and he’ll be all set. Images look good now, so imagine what a true receiver would produce….

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