September 20, 2020

Getting back to Winter-ish

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:20 PM PDT Sunday 20 September 2020 - Sunday night: Mainly cloudy. 30 percent chance of showers over northern sections. Low 12. Monday: Mainly cloudy. 30 percent chance of showers in the morning. Showers beginning in the morning. High 19. UV index 2 or low. Monday night: Showers ending before morning then partly cloudy. Low 12. Tuesday: Showers. High 18. Tuesday night: Rain. Low 12. Wednesday: Rain. High 18. Wednesday night: Showers. Low 12. Thursday: Showers. High 15. Thursday night: Rain. Low 10. Friday: Rain. High 15. Friday night: Periods of rain. Low 11. Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 15.

The final weekend of the Olympic games likely won’t be as wet as the first weekend. (It was wet I know!) But it will still be wet. For the next week we have a pretty respectable 110mm of rain in the forecast.

Doesn’t look like any major events will hit us. Just some days or evenings of good steady rain.

I did also want to mention a report that was released a few days ago. For the past few years, a common refrain from some corners of the climate community has been that there could be more or stronger hurricanes in a warmed world. Scientists acknowledged a possibility, but there was no hard evidence, or at least any hard research to back that up.

Well, now there is, and the verdict is a bit of both.

The research is published here, in Nature Geoscience, and it says:

it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes. However, future projections based on theory and high-resolution dynamical models consistently indicate that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2–11% by 2100. Existing modelling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6–34%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modelling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre.

Now of course we don’t get tropical storms here directly. But we do certainly have periods, especially in the October/November/December timeframe when former tropical storms “curl” back towards us from Japan and the West Pacific and give a little extra punch to our storms.

2% isnt much in terms of wind … but a 20% increase in precipitation certainly would not be very welcome down on 3rd ave.

2 thoughts on “Getting back to Winter-ish

  1. Well, I bit the bullet and ordered the upgrade from the wxtoimg software I have been trying.. inital results look good, especially with the proper antenna in the air. I’m just waiting for the next few passes to go by, and it will start generating multi-pass composite images now too. I feel like a kid in a candy store.

  2. Now Nick just needs the actual weather receiver, and he’ll be all set. Images look good now, so imagine what a true receiver would produce….

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