Tue. Oct 15th, 2019

Freezing temps to end Friday – Headlines – and Comets

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Tuesday 15 October 2019 - Tuesday night: Periods of rain. Amount 10 mm. Windy early this evening. Temperature steady near 11. Wednesday: Periods of rain ending late in the afternoon then cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Amount 10 to 20 mm. High 14. UV index 1 or low. Wednesday night: Cloudy. 60 percent chance of showers in the evening. Rain beginning near midnight. Amount 10 mm. Low 10. Thursday: Showers. High 13. Thursday night: Showers. Low 8. Friday: Rain. High 11. Friday night: Rain. Low 7. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud with 60 percent chance of showers. High 15. Saturday night: Cloudy periods with 30 percent chance of showers. Low plus 5. Sunday: Cloudy with 70 percent chance of showers. High 12. Sunday night: Periods of rain. Low 8. Monday: Rain. High 12.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    9.9° C
    0.0 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    100.94 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    Humidity
    97 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    9.9° C
    Heat Index
    9.9° C
    Dewpoint
    9.5° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 18:30:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    No Qualifying Rainfall mm
    Civil Rise
    07:06
    Moon Phase
    Waning gibbous (95% full)
    Civil Set
    19:02
    Day Length
    13:04:57
    Day High
    10.5° C @ 12:48 Tdy.
    Day Low
    9.2° C @ 07:39 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.61 kPa @ 00:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    100.93 kPa @ 18:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    8.9° C @ 10:44 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    10.5° C @ 12:48 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 2km/h @ 10:45 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    142W/m2 @ 12:31 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    1.1 @ 12:30 Tdy.

This should be our last super cold morning. Beautiful isn’t it? (Click for full size)
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Officially at the Airport we got down to -7.8° C on Wednesday morning and so far we are down to -6.9° C this morning. In town here at Alberniweaher we hit a slightly milder -5.3° C yesterday and -4.8° C so far this morning. We set short term records for cold since 1995 at the Airport Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesdays -7.8° C was the coldest official temperature for November 20 since 1977, but it wasn’t anywhere near the November record of -16° C set in 1985. I remember that day! I’m pretty sure David Gibson wore shorts to school at Alberni Elementary and we were jumping on the puddles trying to make them break! 🙂
20131121-070651.jpg

As you can see above, the freezing temperatures should break on Friday as the cold shifts to the East (it’s gonna be -28°C in Regina for the Grey Cup apparently!!). That will allow warmer ocean air to creep back in to the picture.

Contrary to what was printed on the frontpage of the AV Times yesterday, I don’t think we are ‘set to break records’ on the weekend. I actually told them only that we might get warm temperatures for this time of year that could get us into record territory. That would be quite the flip flop from our chilly record cold nights we’ve had the past couple nights. No worries though, that’s just the weather for you, tricky thing weather, and the rest of the article was great! If you are looking for the Climate Change in Port Alberni blog post it mentions, just click the red link at the top left of this page.

That said, the American GFS models have been consistent that there will be a brief push of warm air coming up along the West Coast on the weekend. The image below shows it should peak Sunday evening. You can see the 12°C line just over the south west portion of the Island. 12 would be enough for us to break a record.

20131121-070656.jpg
But we will see, Environment Canada certainly doesn’t seem to be going along with that plan. The next days worth of forecasts should come into some sort of agreement.

And finally, Comets!

20131121-071556.jpg

Here is a beautiful picture of Comet ISON which has gotten a ton of press over the past few days as it approaches the sun. It’s been of such great interest because scientists believe it is a comet that has never entered the solar system before, and may never again. It is currently only visible with a clear view of the low southeast sky at dawn. Something we unfortunately do not have. So we will only be able to enjoy it through pictures or by travelling to other parts of the Island with a less mountainous view.

The comet is supposed to reach its closest point to the sun (perihelion) by this time next week. There is uncertainty whether it will survive that journey, or be destroyed. If it is not destroyed, it should swing back around and will hopefully be a rising point in our sky right through Christmas.

For updates and some more great images of comet ISON, check out www.spaceweather.com.

3 thoughts on “Freezing temps to end Friday – Headlines – and Comets

  1. The 12C line is at 925mb (2500ft or 800m) not at the surface. So what may happen is we get a strong inversion with fog. In order to get to 12 or above, the outflow from the high would have to very strong but the wind barbs and gradient just don’t support that. In fact we may not even get as warm as the forecast 6C.

    paqqj

    1. Just added a surface profile to todays post. You’re right, we could be stuck in an inversion. But the models have been very consistent on this warm air knocking on our door, including at the surface. We’ll see. 🙂

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