January 17, 2021

Forecast holds. Showers Thursday. Rain early Friday morning.

The models have settled down and now all seem to be agreeing that we will receive some moisture starting Thursday.  It is an odd couple of disturbances that will affect the region.  The first will centre most of its moisture on the South Island, especially Victoria and the Gulf Islands.  The second will centre its activity on the North Island from Courtenay and up.  In both cases, there is a chance we will be left out completely, but Friday especially looks strong and widespread enough for us to get some.

The chance of rain will start in the afternoon Thursday.  There is a good chance judging by the chart below that we will only see very light showers if anything.

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The chart above shows Friday at 2AM a stronger push from the north which should definitely deliver us moisture and hopefully take the fire risk down to High from Extreme.

It looks like it will clear up Friday and get warm again for the weekend before another weak system comes through Monday evening and overnight, but with the way things have been with the models this week we should wait to see.

Have a great Hump Day!