Thu. Mar 21st, 2019

First loooong look at Christmas and Wet Sunday

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Thursday 21 March 2019 - Thursday night: Increasing cloudiness early this evening. Low 6. Friday: Cloudy. Rain beginning late in the afternoon. High 13. UV index 2 or low. Friday night: Showers. Low plus 5. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud with 60 percent chance of showers. High 14. Saturday night: Clear. Low plus 2. Sunday: Sunny. High 15. Sunday night: Clear. Low plus 2. Monday: Increasing cloudiness. High 13. Monday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low plus 5. Tuesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 12. Tuesday night: Cloudy periods. Low plus 4. Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 13.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    16.4° C
    -0.8 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.54 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    S 14.5 km/h
    gusting 27.4 km/h
    Humidity
    55 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    16.4° C
    Heat Index
    16.4° C
    Dewpoint
    7.4° C
    UV
    1.2
    Solar
    460 W/m2
    Last Updated: 17:00:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.4 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    06:47
    Moon Phase
    Full (99% full)
    Civil Set
    20:06
    Day Length
    13:26:22
    Day High
    17.4° C @ 16:02 Tdy.
    Day Low
    2.1° C @ 07:32 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.79 kPa @ 08:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.35 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    2.1° C @ 07:32 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    17.4° C @ 16:02 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 16.4km/h @ 16:25 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    768W/m2 @ 14:58 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    3.3 @ 13:05 Tdy.

A couple have asked, so here’s the first look, at the very edges of the forecasts… for the Christmas period.

This is the upperlevel temperature (to see if the air up high could support snow) and surface pressures for 4PM Christmas Eve Day (the furthest the models go):

Far Out Christmas Eve Pressure and highalt temp
Far Out Christmas Eve Pressure and highalt temp

What that tells me is that around Christmas Eve we may very well be in a period of cool temperatures as there looks to be a high pressure area up in Northern BC pushing down towards us and the upper level air will be around -10 which would support snow. However, there is what looks like a big storm up in the Gulf of Alaska sending a pretty strong front our way that looks like it will hit us around Christmas Day. You can see from the black 5C line that it is warm too so at this point I would say we are in for a Green Christmas.

HOWEVER 🙂

This is, as I said way out at the edges of the forecast model and is very likely to completely change. So could it take it as, good chance the current pattern will continue or good chance the pattern will switch back to cold.

Just remember that we *do* live on the Wet Coast, so really the best chance for a white Christmas remains in the mountains. 🙂

As for the more immediate future. We have the makings of a very wet Saturday night and Sunday.

Here is the NOGAPS model for Sunday morning the 12th (Purple is 50mm in 12hrs):

NoGaps precip forecast Dec 11 4PM
NoGaps precip forecast Dec 11 4PM

The GFS model on the other hand has the brunt of that storm hitting Washington and Oregon and saving the heavy rain for us for Monday morning. Here is Monday morning:

GFS Model Monday 13th precip
GFS Model Monday 13th precip

2 thoughts on “First loooong look at Christmas and Wet Sunday

  1. I’m going out on a limb and say Saturdays/Sundays rain is going to mostly slide to the south of us into Washington

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