Fri. Sep 21st, 2018

First loooong look at Christmas and Wet Sunday

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT
    Issued: 4:25 PM PDT Thursday 20 September 2018

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Thursday 20 September 2018 - Thursday night: Rain at times heavy. Amount 15 to 25 mm. Temperature steady near 12. Friday: Periods of rain. Risk of a thunderstorm in the afternoon. Amount 10 to 20 mm. High 15. UV index 1 or low. Friday night: Periods of rain. Amount 10 to 20 mm. Low 12. Saturday: Rain. High 16. Saturday night: Showers. Low 11. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Sunday night: Clear. Low 8. Monday: Sunny. High 21. Monday night: Clear. Low 7. Tuesday: Sunny. High 20. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 8. Wednesday: Sunny. High 20.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    13.3° C
    -0.2 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.72 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    95 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    13.3° C
    Heat Index
    13.3° C
    Dewpoint
    12.5° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    37 W/m2
    Last Updated: 17:15:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    5.3 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    06:30
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (85% full)
    Civil Set
    19:53
    Day Length
    13:12:31
    Day High
    13.7° C @ 15:31 Tdy.
    Day Low
    11.7° C @ 07:28 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    7.6mm/hr @ 12:58 Tdy.
    Day High Barometer
    101.98 kPa @ 08:43 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.72 kPa @ 17:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    11.7° C @ 07:28 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    13.7° C @ 15:31 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 1.6km/h @ 05:10 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    299W/m2 @ 15:23 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    1.8 @ 15:22 Tdy.

A couple have asked, so here’s the first look, at the very edges of the forecasts… for the Christmas period.

This is the upperlevel temperature (to see if the air up high could support snow) and surface pressures for 4PM Christmas Eve Day (the furthest the models go):

Far Out Christmas Eve Pressure and highalt temp
Far Out Christmas Eve Pressure and highalt temp

What that tells me is that around Christmas Eve we may very well be in a period of cool temperatures as there looks to be a high pressure area up in Northern BC pushing down towards us and the upper level air will be around -10 which would support snow. However, there is what looks like a big storm up in the Gulf of Alaska sending a pretty strong front our way that looks like it will hit us around Christmas Day. You can see from the black 5C line that it is warm too so at this point I would say we are in for a Green Christmas.

HOWEVER 🙂

This is, as I said way out at the edges of the forecast model and is very likely to completely change. So could it take it as, good chance the current pattern will continue or good chance the pattern will switch back to cold.

Just remember that we *do* live on the Wet Coast, so really the best chance for a white Christmas remains in the mountains. 🙂

As for the more immediate future. We have the makings of a very wet Saturday night and Sunday.

Here is the NOGAPS model for Sunday morning the 12th (Purple is 50mm in 12hrs):

NoGaps precip forecast Dec 11 4PM
NoGaps precip forecast Dec 11 4PM

The GFS model on the other hand has the brunt of that storm hitting Washington and Oregon and saving the heavy rain for us for Monday morning. Here is Monday morning:

GFS Model Monday 13th precip
GFS Model Monday 13th precip

2 thoughts on “First loooong look at Christmas and Wet Sunday

  1. I’m going out on a limb and say Saturdays/Sundays rain is going to mostly slide to the south of us into Washington

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