First loooong look at Christmas and Wet Sunday

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Saturday 21 July 2018 - Saturday night: Clear. Low 11. Sunday: Sunny. High 32. Humidex 34. UV index 8 or very high. Sunday night: Clear. Low 13. Monday: Sunny. High 34. Monday night: Clear. Low 14. Tuesday: Sunny. High 33. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 14. Wednesday: Sunny. High 32. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 14. Thursday: Sunny. High 28. Thursday night: Clear. Low 14. Friday: Sunny. High 27.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    19.8° C
    -2.0 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.2 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    61 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    19.8° C
    Heat Index
    19.8° C
    Dewpoint
    12.1° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 21:50:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    04:56
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (74% full)
    Civil Set
    21:54
    Day Length
    13:25:39
    Day High
    27.3° C @ 15:19 Tdy.
    Day Low
    12.3° C @ 06:21 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.2 kPa @ 21:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.95 kPa @ 03:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    12.3° C @ 06:21 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    27.3° C @ 15:19 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 17.4km/h @ 18:55 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    1062W/m2 @ 13:29 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    7.1 @ 13:26 Tdy.

A couple have asked, so here’s the first look, at the very edges of the forecasts… for the Christmas period.

This is the upperlevel temperature (to see if the air up high could support snow) and surface pressures for 4PM Christmas Eve Day (the furthest the models go):

Far Out Christmas Eve Pressure and highalt temp
Far Out Christmas Eve Pressure and highalt temp

What that tells me is that around Christmas Eve we may very well be in a period of cool temperatures as there looks to be a high pressure area up in Northern BC pushing down towards us and the upper level air will be around -10 which would support snow. However, there is what looks like a big storm up in the Gulf of Alaska sending a pretty strong front our way that looks like it will hit us around Christmas Day. You can see from the black 5C line that it is warm too so at this point I would say we are in for a Green Christmas.

HOWEVER 🙂

This is, as I said way out at the edges of the forecast model and is very likely to completely change. So could it take it as, good chance the current pattern will continue or good chance the pattern will switch back to cold.

Just remember that we *do* live on the Wet Coast, so really the best chance for a white Christmas remains in the mountains. 🙂

As for the more immediate future. We have the makings of a very wet Saturday night and Sunday.

Here is the NOGAPS model for Sunday morning the 12th (Purple is 50mm in 12hrs):

NoGaps precip forecast Dec 11 4PM
NoGaps precip forecast Dec 11 4PM

The GFS model on the other hand has the brunt of that storm hitting Washington and Oregon and saving the heavy rain for us for Monday morning. Here is Monday morning:

GFS Model Monday 13th precip
GFS Model Monday 13th precip

2 Replies to “First loooong look at Christmas and Wet Sunday”

  1. I’m going out on a limb and say Saturdays/Sundays rain is going to mostly slide to the south of us into Washington

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