Wed. Apr 24th, 2019

First Fall Storm Wednesday… Roke coming next week

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Wednesday 24 April 2019 - Wednesday night: Clear. Low plus 2. Thursday: Sunny. Increasing cloudiness late in the morning. High 16. UV index 5 or moderate. Thursday night: Mainly cloudy. Clearing near midnight. Low plus 3. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 18. Friday night: Clear. Low plus 3. Saturday: Sunny. High 14. Saturday night: Clear. Low zero. Sunday: Sunny. High 17. Sunday night: Clear. Low plus 3. Monday: Sunny. High 15. Monday night: Clear. Low plus 4. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 16.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    14.3° C
    -1.0 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.55 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    NE 9.7 km/h
    gusting 20.9 km/h
    Humidity
    46 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    14.3° C
    Heat Index
    14.3° C
    Dewpoint
    2.8° C
    UV
    0.5
    Solar
    71 W/m2
    Last Updated: 19:05:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    05:34
    Moon Phase
    Waning gibbous (68% full)
    Civil Set
    21:01
    Day Length
    13:17:21
    Day High
    17.4° C @ 15:39 Tdy.
    Day Low
    6.7° C @ 05:52 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.8 kPa @ 08:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.46 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    6.7° C @ 05:52 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    17.4° C @ 15:39 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 12.9km/h @ 16:40 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    939W/m2 @ 13:49 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    5.0 @ 13:04 Tdy.

If you noticed the gathering clouds this afternoon then you’ve seen the first signs that our first major rainfall of the season is on it’s way.

Fall doesn’t officially begin until early on the 23rd, but this will definitely feel like a fall event.

The first pulse will come on Wednesday afternoon. The second, stronger one from the same system will come on Thursday and Friday. It is noteworthy that this will deliver a major punch to the North and Central coasts of BC that got whacked with major flooding a couple weeks back.

For us, EC is predicting 30-40mm on Wednesday. The GFS model is predicting a little less than that. Thursday/Friday will be the same or greater and will last 24hrs rather than the 12 or so for Wednesdays event.

We should get a decent break for the weekend. After that though, we should expect to see the remnants of Typhoon Roke which is impacting central Japan today. As you can see from the image below, it will be curling up into the Gulf of Alaska and should send some serious rain our way for Monday and Tuesday… In the 40mm range.

20110920-174842.jpg

The image isn’t great but you can see the white track line of Roke ending up in the Gulf of Alaska much like the storm that is affecting us wed/thurs/fri.

It isn’t unusual for west pacific typhoons to end up in our area much like it’s not unusual for atlantic hurricanes to end up in the British Isles they both get carried by the jetstream once they move north of tropical waters.

I should end with a mention that over 1 million people are under evacuation orders in Japan today. Roke will be packing 150kph winds when it hits. Thankfully it will not be anywhere near that next week when it gets to us.

Batten down them hatches all the same… Time to bring in the lawn chairs. 🙂

4 thoughts on “First Fall Storm Wednesday… Roke coming next week

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