Fri. Feb 22nd, 2019

First Fall Storm Wednesday… Roke coming next week

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Thursday 21 February 2019 - Thursday night: Cloudy. Periods of snow beginning late this evening. Amount 2 to 4 cm. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 1. Wind chill minus 3 in the evening. Friday: Periods of snow ending near noon then cloudy with 40 percent chance of rain showers. Snowfall amount 2 to 4 cm. High 6. UV index 1 or low. Friday night: Cloudy. Flurries beginning late in the evening. Amount 2 cm. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 2. Wind chill near minus 4. Saturday: Flurries or rain showers. High plus 4. Saturday night: Clear. Low minus 4. Sunday: Sunny. High plus 5. Sunday night: Clear. Low minus 5. Monday: Sunny. High 7. Monday night: Clear. Low minus 5. Tuesday: Sunny. High 6. Tuesday night: Clear. Low minus 5. Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High plus 5.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    3.8° C
    0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.64 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    S 6.4 km/h
    gusting 11.3 km/h
    Humidity
    73 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    2.2° C
    Heat Index
    3.8° C
    Dewpoint
    -0.6° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 0:20:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    06:42
    Moon Phase
    Waning gibbous (89% full)
    Civil Set
    18:24
    Day Length
    12:32:40
    Day High
    3.8° C @ 00:17 Tdy.
    Day Low
    3.6° C @ 00:04 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.64 kPa @ 00:13 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.63 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    0.9° C @ 00:14 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    3.8° C @ 00:17 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 6.4km/h @ 00:20 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

If you noticed the gathering clouds this afternoon then you’ve seen the first signs that our first major rainfall of the season is on it’s way.

Fall doesn’t officially begin until early on the 23rd, but this will definitely feel like a fall event.

The first pulse will come on Wednesday afternoon. The second, stronger one from the same system will come on Thursday and Friday. It is noteworthy that this will deliver a major punch to the North and Central coasts of BC that got whacked with major flooding a couple weeks back.

For us, EC is predicting 30-40mm on Wednesday. The GFS model is predicting a little less than that. Thursday/Friday will be the same or greater and will last 24hrs rather than the 12 or so for Wednesdays event.

We should get a decent break for the weekend. After that though, we should expect to see the remnants of Typhoon Roke which is impacting central Japan today. As you can see from the image below, it will be curling up into the Gulf of Alaska and should send some serious rain our way for Monday and Tuesday… In the 40mm range.

20110920-174842.jpg

The image isn’t great but you can see the white track line of Roke ending up in the Gulf of Alaska much like the storm that is affecting us wed/thurs/fri.

It isn’t unusual for west pacific typhoons to end up in our area much like it’s not unusual for atlantic hurricanes to end up in the British Isles they both get carried by the jetstream once they move north of tropical waters.

I should end with a mention that over 1 million people are under evacuation orders in Japan today. Roke will be packing 150kph winds when it hits. Thankfully it will not be anywhere near that next week when it gets to us.

Batten down them hatches all the same… Time to bring in the lawn chairs. 🙂

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