Wed. Oct 17th, 2018

First Fall Storm Wednesday… Roke coming next week

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Wednesday 17 October 2018 - Wednesday: Sunny. Fog patches early this morning. High 18. UV index 3 or moderate. Wednesday night: A few clouds. Fog patches developing after midnight. Low plus 4. Thursday: Mainly sunny. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 17. UV index 3 or moderate. Thursday night: Fog. Low plus 4. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 17. Friday night: Fog. Low plus 5. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Saturday night: Fog. Low plus 4. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Sunday night: Fog. Low 6. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 15. Monday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 9. Tuesday: Rain. High 14.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    5.6° C
    0.6 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.34 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    98 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    5.6° C
    Heat Index
    5.6° C
    Dewpoint
    5.3° C
    UV
    0.2
    Solar
    75 W/m2
    Last Updated: 9:10:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:10
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (59% full)
    Civil Set
    18:57
    Day Length
    13:04:30
    Day High
    7.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    4.5° C @ 05:19 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.4 kPa @ 00:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.33 kPa @ 07:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    4.5° C @ 05:19 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    7.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0.0km/h @ 00:05 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    86W/m2 @ 09:09 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.5 @ 09:08 Tdy.

If you noticed the gathering clouds this afternoon then you’ve seen the first signs that our first major rainfall of the season is on it’s way.

Fall doesn’t officially begin until early on the 23rd, but this will definitely feel like a fall event.

The first pulse will come on Wednesday afternoon. The second, stronger one from the same system will come on Thursday and Friday. It is noteworthy that this will deliver a major punch to the North and Central coasts of BC that got whacked with major flooding a couple weeks back.

For us, EC is predicting 30-40mm on Wednesday. The GFS model is predicting a little less than that. Thursday/Friday will be the same or greater and will last 24hrs rather than the 12 or so for Wednesdays event.

We should get a decent break for the weekend. After that though, we should expect to see the remnants of Typhoon Roke which is impacting central Japan today. As you can see from the image below, it will be curling up into the Gulf of Alaska and should send some serious rain our way for Monday and Tuesday… In the 40mm range.

20110920-174842.jpg

The image isn’t great but you can see the white track line of Roke ending up in the Gulf of Alaska much like the storm that is affecting us wed/thurs/fri.

It isn’t unusual for west pacific typhoons to end up in our area much like it’s not unusual for atlantic hurricanes to end up in the British Isles they both get carried by the jetstream once they move north of tropical waters.

I should end with a mention that over 1 million people are under evacuation orders in Japan today. Roke will be packing 150kph winds when it hits. Thankfully it will not be anywhere near that next week when it gets to us.

Batten down them hatches all the same… Time to bring in the lawn chairs. 🙂

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