September 25, 2020

First Fall Storm Wednesday… Roke coming next week

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Thursday 24 September 2020 - Thursday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers this evening. Rain at times heavy beginning late this evening. Risk of a thunderstorm early this evening. Amount 20 to 30 mm. Wind becoming southwest 40 to 60 km/h before morning. Low 13. Friday: Rain ending in the morning then mainly cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Wind southwest 40 to 60 km/h diminishing to 30 in the morning. High 18. UV index 3 or moderate. Friday night: Mainly cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Low 10. Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 17. Saturday night: Showers. Low 11. Sunday: Periods of rain. High 15. Sunday night: Periods of rain. Low 11. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 23. Monday night: Clear. Low 10. Tuesday: Sunny. High 23. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 10. Wednesday: Sunny. High 22.

If you noticed the gathering clouds this afternoon then you’ve seen the first signs that our first major rainfall of the season is on it’s way.

Fall doesn’t officially begin until early on the 23rd, but this will definitely feel like a fall event.

The first pulse will come on Wednesday afternoon. The second, stronger one from the same system will come on Thursday and Friday. It is noteworthy that this will deliver a major punch to the North and Central coasts of BC that got whacked with major flooding a couple weeks back.

For us, EC is predicting 30-40mm on Wednesday. The GFS model is predicting a little less than that. Thursday/Friday will be the same or greater and will last 24hrs rather than the 12 or so for Wednesdays event.

We should get a decent break for the weekend. After that though, we should expect to see the remnants of Typhoon Roke which is impacting central Japan today. As you can see from the image below, it will be curling up into the Gulf of Alaska and should send some serious rain our way for Monday and Tuesday… In the 40mm range.

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The image isn’t great but you can see the white track line of Roke ending up in the Gulf of Alaska much like the storm that is affecting us wed/thurs/fri.

It isn’t unusual for west pacific typhoons to end up in our area much like it’s not unusual for atlantic hurricanes to end up in the British Isles they both get carried by the jetstream once they move north of tropical waters.

I should end with a mention that over 1 million people are under evacuation orders in Japan today. Roke will be packing 150kph winds when it hits. Thankfully it will not be anywhere near that next week when it gets to us.

Batten down them hatches all the same… Time to bring in the lawn chairs. 🙂

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