November 29, 2020

First Fall Storm Wednesday… Roke coming next week

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PST Sunday 29 November 2020 - Sunday: Becoming cloudy this morning then periods of rain. Fog patches dissipating this morning. Amount 5 mm. High plus 4. Sunday night: Rain at times heavy. Amount 15 to 25 mm. Temperature rising to 7 by morning. Monday: Rain ending in the morning then clearing. Gusty winds. Temperature steady near 7. UV index 1 or low. Monday night: Clear. Low minus 2. Tuesday: Sunny. High plus 5. Tuesday night: Cloudy periods. Low minus 2. Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High plus 3. Wednesday night: Increasing cloudiness. Low zero. Thursday: Cloudy. High plus 5. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low plus 3. Friday: Cloudy. High 10. Friday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low plus 4. Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 10.

If you noticed the gathering clouds this afternoon then you’ve seen the first signs that our first major rainfall of the season is on it’s way.

Fall doesn’t officially begin until early on the 23rd, but this will definitely feel like a fall event.

The first pulse will come on Wednesday afternoon. The second, stronger one from the same system will come on Thursday and Friday. It is noteworthy that this will deliver a major punch to the North and Central coasts of BC that got whacked with major flooding a couple weeks back.

For us, EC is predicting 30-40mm on Wednesday. The GFS model is predicting a little less than that. Thursday/Friday will be the same or greater and will last 24hrs rather than the 12 or so for Wednesdays event.

We should get a decent break for the weekend. After that though, we should expect to see the remnants of Typhoon Roke which is impacting central Japan today. As you can see from the image below, it will be curling up into the Gulf of Alaska and should send some serious rain our way for Monday and Tuesday… In the 40mm range.

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The image isn’t great but you can see the white track line of Roke ending up in the Gulf of Alaska much like the storm that is affecting us wed/thurs/fri.

It isn’t unusual for west pacific typhoons to end up in our area much like it’s not unusual for atlantic hurricanes to end up in the British Isles they both get carried by the jetstream once they move north of tropical waters.

I should end with a mention that over 1 million people are under evacuation orders in Japan today. Roke will be packing 150kph winds when it hits. Thankfully it will not be anywhere near that next week when it gets to us.

Batten down them hatches all the same… Time to bring in the lawn chairs. 🙂

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