Fri. Jul 19th, 2019

First Fall Storm Wednesday… Roke coming next week

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Friday 19 July 2019 - Friday night: Partly cloudy. Clearing this evening. Low 10. Saturday: Sunny. High 27. UV index 7 or high. Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Low 8. Sunday: Sunny. High 29. Sunday night: Clear. Low 11. Monday: Sunny. High 26. Monday night: Clear. Low 14. Tuesday: Sunny. High 25. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 13. Wednesday: Sunny. High 22. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 12. Thursday: Sunny. High 23.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    22.2° C
    -1.2 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.9 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    SSW 8 km/h
    gusting 19 km/h
    Humidity
    51 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    22.2° C
    Heat Index
    22.2° C
    Dewpoint
    11.6° C
    UV
    1.3
    Solar
    343 W/m2
    Last Updated: 18:10:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.3 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    7.6 mm since
    July 18, 2019 00:07
    Civil Rise
    04:53
    Moon Phase
    Waning gibbous (91% full)
    Civil Set
    21:57
    Day Length
    13:25:32
    Day High
    24.2° C @ 15:42 Tdy.
    Day Low
    10.8° C @ 02:50 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.02 kPa @ 08:59 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.77 kPa @ 00:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    10.8° C @ 02:50 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    24.2° C @ 15:42 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 10km/h @ 17:55 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    969W/m2 @ 14:31 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    5.8 @ 12:42 Tdy.

If you noticed the gathering clouds this afternoon then you’ve seen the first signs that our first major rainfall of the season is on it’s way.

Fall doesn’t officially begin until early on the 23rd, but this will definitely feel like a fall event.

The first pulse will come on Wednesday afternoon. The second, stronger one from the same system will come on Thursday and Friday. It is noteworthy that this will deliver a major punch to the North and Central coasts of BC that got whacked with major flooding a couple weeks back.

For us, EC is predicting 30-40mm on Wednesday. The GFS model is predicting a little less than that. Thursday/Friday will be the same or greater and will last 24hrs rather than the 12 or so for Wednesdays event.

We should get a decent break for the weekend. After that though, we should expect to see the remnants of Typhoon Roke which is impacting central Japan today. As you can see from the image below, it will be curling up into the Gulf of Alaska and should send some serious rain our way for Monday and Tuesday… In the 40mm range.

20110920-174842.jpg

The image isn’t great but you can see the white track line of Roke ending up in the Gulf of Alaska much like the storm that is affecting us wed/thurs/fri.

It isn’t unusual for west pacific typhoons to end up in our area much like it’s not unusual for atlantic hurricanes to end up in the British Isles they both get carried by the jetstream once they move north of tropical waters.

I should end with a mention that over 1 million people are under evacuation orders in Japan today. Roke will be packing 150kph winds when it hits. Thankfully it will not be anywhere near that next week when it gets to us.

Batten down them hatches all the same… Time to bring in the lawn chairs. 🙂

4 thoughts on “First Fall Storm Wednesday… Roke coming next week

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