Updated 7:30AM Sat: Extreme Heat – Campfire Bans – Possible Dry Lightning

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Friday 23 February 2018 - Friday night: A few flurries and rain showers ending near midnight then clearing. Low minus 3. Saturday: Sunny. Increasing cloudiness in the afternoon then 60 percent chance of showers late in the afternoon. High 7. Saturday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. Low zero. Sunday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. High 7. Sunday night: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. Low minus 2. Monday: Cloudy. High 8. Monday night: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Low plus 1. Tuesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 8. Tuesday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 2. Wednesday: Rain. High 7. Wednesday night: Rain or snow. Low plus 1. Thursday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 7.

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UPDATE 7:30AM Saturday

The models are backing off a bit this morning.  EC has dropped the high one degree from 36 to 35.  Maybe it won’t be quite so unbearable.  Here is one of te high resolution short term models.imageThere is also a chance for dry lightning later in the day.

image

Stay cool out there everyone!

_______________End Update_____

Yesterday the ball got rolling for this weekend’s heat wave as Environment Canada issued a Special Weather Statement. The most important statements are these:

Major heat wave over Southern British Columbia this weekend.

High temperatures will increase the risk of heat-related illnesses.

Heat is dangerous.  Try to stay out of the direct sun in the hottest part of the day.  Stay hydrated with juice and water, not pop or alcohol.  And wear a hat.  I had heat stroke once when I was a child and it was a terrible experience.  Children and the Elderly are especially susceptible.

Campfire Ban Saturday Noon

The BC Wildfire branch also announced a campfire ban for our area and all of Vancouver Island except the north end and fog zone.  The fire danger rating is currently Extreme in the Alberni Valley and it will stay there for the forseeable future.  A spokesperson for the service said yesterday that we need 3 days of significant rainfall to really make a dent in the situation.

So how hot? Might also “feel” hotter.

We start the heat today.  Projected highs: 32°C by EC and up to 29° C (84° F) by UWash (below)

imageSaturday will be the hottest day of the year.  36°C expected by EC,  but only 31° C by UW

imageLets hope UW is right. But no matter what, it will be smokin’ hot.  The later we get into the weekend the more there seems to be some humidity creeping in so it might end up feeling hotter than it is, which is not something we get very often.

Sunday uncertainty, possible lighting/fire risk?

Sunday is a bit of a mystery at this point.  The models have been very consistent at some sort of active weather, be it just rain or some thundershowers might occur on that day.

Here is early Sunday afternoon showing bands of precipitation sweeping through.

image

 

The vertical velocity map for the same period shows moderate downward flows (red) corrsponding to that line of precipitation but not too much upward flows.  Without that contrast, we should only have very weak thunderstorms, if any, but any lightning at all will pose a major fire risk.

image

 

Notice the deep blues and reds directly beside each other in the Southern Interior/Kelowna area? Looks like major thunderstorms likely over there.

That is all I have for now.  If anything major changes, I will update it over the weekend.  Stay cool. Have fun. And stay safe out in the wilderness.

Have a great weekend.