September 21, 2020

Extreme Fire Danger, Extremely Early

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PDT Monday 21 September 2020 - Monday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 19. UV index 3 or moderate. Monday night: A few showers ending overnight then cloudy. Low 12. Tuesday: Mainly cloudy. Periods of rain beginning in the afternoon. High 18. UV index 4 or moderate. Tuesday night: Rain. Low 12. Wednesday: Rain. High 17. Wednesday night: Showers. Low 11. Thursday: Showers. High 18. Thursday night: Showers. Low 11. Friday: Rain. High 16. Friday night: Rain. Low 12. Saturday: Rain. High 16. Saturday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 12. Sunday: Periods of rain. High 17.

Very good article in the Paper today about the heat, and the fire danger.

We have already had 4 days of Extreme Fire Danger… the most for June in at least the past 14 years.

Please, just because it will be a little cooler, relatively, on Friday and the weekend, be very very careful out in the bush and read the rest of this post.

On Tuesday 32 of the agency’s 39 weather stations went into crossover, a term used to describe temperatures climbing above the relative humidity, indicating hot, dry conditions.

June 2009 Graph

That goes for my station as well. You can see the effect in this graph when the “Heat Index” (red line) is actually below the temperature because it is so dry.

Below is the Humidty today (Blue line)… went down to an incredible 14% at my station. It wouldn’t have been that low in the bush… but likely no more than 3 or 4% more out in the bush.
June 2009 Humidity Graph

“Yesterday [Tuesday] was the biggest span with 30.7 C at 20% relative humidity,” MacPherson said. “That’s a huge span. When you get that kind of crossover our spidey senses start tingling. We’re looking at very easy ignition.”

I’m pretty sure it was worse today.

But this is the really dangerous news:

Long-term forecasts from Environment Canada are for higher-than-normal temperatures for the summer and below normal rainfall. While the Valley can expect a cooling trend towards the weekend, there’s no call for rain. Still, the changing temperatures and weather aren’t good for firefighters.

“We’re hearing the lightning word for Friday or Saturday with no rain attached,” MacPherson said.

Please, if you’re camping or doing *anything* with fire (smoking, or whatever) be SO careful.

The green that is still around can be very deceiving… all it takes is a little bed of pine needles or a scrap of paper.

1 thought on “Extreme Fire Danger, Extremely Early

  1. Yay! Its 5:45 and cool enough outside to turn off the A/C and enjoy the easterly breeze when I open the doors on the house!

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