EC issues Weather Statement on possible snow – Here is a worst case scenario.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PDT Friday 20 April 2018 - Friday: Periods of rain. High 10. Friday night: Rain ending before morning then clearing. Becoming windy after midnight. Low plus 3. Saturday: Sunny early in the morning then a mix of sun and cloud with 30 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Windy in the morning. High 12. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low plus 2. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 15. Sunday night: Clear. Low plus 1. Monday: Sunny. High 19. Monday night: Clear. Low plus 3. Tuesday: Sunny. High 20. Tuesday night: Clear. Low plus 5. Wednesday: Sunny. High 19. Wednesday night: Clear. Low 6. Thursday: Sunny. High 18.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    13.4° C
    1.0 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.11 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    S 19.0 km/h
    gusting 35.4 km/h
    Humidity
    51 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    13.4° C
    Heat Index
    13.4° C
    Dewpoint
    3.5° C
    UV
    3.1
    Solar
    440 W/m2
    Last Updated: 13:25:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    05:42
    Moon Phase
    Waxing crescent (27% full)
    Civil Set
    20:54
    Day Length
    13:18:03
    Day High
    13.6° C @ 13:13 Tdy.
    Day Low
    6.8° C @ 06:28 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.51 kPa @ 01:13 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.11 kPa @ 13:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    6.5° C @ 08:31 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    13.6° C @ 13:13 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 19.0km/h @ 13:25 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    784W/m2 @ 11:12 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    4.4 @ 13:06 Tdy.

Environment Canada has issued the following special weather statement about the weekend possibilities.

3:07 PM PST Thursday 20 February 2014
Special weather statement for
Inland Vancouver Island issued

Complex weather pattern this weekend.

Environment Canada is monitoring a weather system that is forecast to reach the South Coast this weekend. Similar to recent storms that have affected the Lower Mainland, it has the potential to generate snow near sea level for portions of the South Coast. While it is possible that precipitation will fall in the form of snow, it is still highly uncertain whether surface temperatures will be sufficiently cold for snow to accumulate.

Current indications are that precipitation from this system will begin sometime Saturday and continue Sunday. Forecast certainty with regards to the location, amount, and timing of snow will increase as the weekend nears.

As of this afternoons 4PM update, they are calling for snow or rain on Saturday and rain or snow on Sunday. (whichever they mention first is most probable).

The cause of their concern is that even though most others are predicting some rain or snow mix, one normally reliable model in particular has predicted, for the past two days and four runs in a row, up to a foot of snow on the East Coast of the Island between Saturday and Sunday morning.

20140220-155751.jpg
You can see all the forecasts for that same time to see how they’ve changed by going here.

The following is a worst case scenario.

This might not happen at all, it might all fall as rain. But with the model being so persistent and the start being less than 48hrs away, it’s worth giving this rundown.

Here is the higher resolution, zoomed in version for the same 4AM Saturday to 4AM Sunday period.

20140220-160214.jpg

Again, take this as a worst case scenario, not as a perfect prediction. Duncan, Nanaimo and Courtenay are each in the red hues indicating up to a foot of snow but the entire Island is blanketed.

It will be moving over the Island from North to South.
As you can see here, this model has it starting in Courtenay by 9AM Saturday.

20140220-160815.jpg
Reaching mid island by 11AM

20140220-160938.jpg

And the Island fully involved and accumulating at 2cm (1″) per hour by 4PM.

20140220-161343.jpg

This is a worst case scenario but plan your travel carefully.

Next update from me will be late tonight or early tomorrow.