Fri. Oct 19th, 2018

EC issues Weather Statement on possible snow – Here is a worst case scenario.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Friday 19 October 2018 - Friday: Fog dissipating this morning then a mix of sun and cloud. High 16. UV index 2 or low. Friday night: Partly cloudy. Fog developing this evening. Low 6. Saturday: Fog dissipating in the morning then a mix of sun and cloud. High 20. UV index 2 or low. Saturday night: Fog. Low plus 4. Sunday: Fog. High 20. Sunday night: Fog. Low 6. Monday: Fog. High 15. Monday night: Cloudy. Low 9. Tuesday: Periods of rain. High 14. Tuesday night: Rain. Low 9. Wednesday: Periods of rain. High 13. Wednesday night: Rain. Low 8. Thursday: Rain. High 12.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    7.4° C
    -0.4 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.56 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    E 0.1 km/h
    gusting 4.8 km/h
    Humidity
    98 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    7.4° C
    Heat Index
    7.4° C
    Dewpoint
    7.1° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    11 W/m2
    Last Updated: 8:20:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:13
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (76% full)
    Civil Set
    18:54
    Day Length
    13:04:07
    Day High
    8.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    7.4° C @ 01:41 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.56 kPa @ 08:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.36 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    6.0° C @ 08:01 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    8.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 1.7km/h @ 07:55 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    12W/m2 @ 08:19 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

Environment Canada has issued the following special weather statement about the weekend possibilities.

3:07 PM PST Thursday 20 February 2014
Special weather statement for
Inland Vancouver Island issued

Complex weather pattern this weekend.

Environment Canada is monitoring a weather system that is forecast to reach the South Coast this weekend. Similar to recent storms that have affected the Lower Mainland, it has the potential to generate snow near sea level for portions of the South Coast. While it is possible that precipitation will fall in the form of snow, it is still highly uncertain whether surface temperatures will be sufficiently cold for snow to accumulate.

Current indications are that precipitation from this system will begin sometime Saturday and continue Sunday. Forecast certainty with regards to the location, amount, and timing of snow will increase as the weekend nears.

As of this afternoons 4PM update, they are calling for snow or rain on Saturday and rain or snow on Sunday. (whichever they mention first is most probable).

The cause of their concern is that even though most others are predicting some rain or snow mix, one normally reliable model in particular has predicted, for the past two days and four runs in a row, up to a foot of snow on the East Coast of the Island between Saturday and Sunday morning.

20140220-155751.jpg
You can see all the forecasts for that same time to see how they’ve changed by going here.

The following is a worst case scenario.

This might not happen at all, it might all fall as rain. But with the model being so persistent and the start being less than 48hrs away, it’s worth giving this rundown.

Here is the higher resolution, zoomed in version for the same 4AM Saturday to 4AM Sunday period.

20140220-160214.jpg

Again, take this as a worst case scenario, not as a perfect prediction. Duncan, Nanaimo and Courtenay are each in the red hues indicating up to a foot of snow but the entire Island is blanketed.

It will be moving over the Island from North to South.
As you can see here, this model has it starting in Courtenay by 9AM Saturday.

20140220-160815.jpg
Reaching mid island by 11AM

20140220-160938.jpg

And the Island fully involved and accumulating at 2cm (1″) per hour by 4PM.

20140220-161343.jpg

This is a worst case scenario but plan your travel carefully.

Next update from me will be late tonight or early tomorrow.