Tue. Jul 16th, 2019

EC issues Weather Statement on possible snow – Here is a worst case scenario.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Monday 15 July 2019 - Monday night: Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers early this evening with risk of thunderstorms. Low 15. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. 30 percent chance of showers in the morning. High 25. Humidex 27. UV index 8 or very high. Tuesday night: Cloudy. Rain beginning in the evening. Low 14. Wednesday: Periods of rain. High 21. Wednesday night: Cloudy periods with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 9. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 21. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 11. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 21. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 22.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    15.7° C
    0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.65 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    Humidity
    91 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    15.7° C
    Heat Index
    15.7° C
    Dewpoint
    14.2° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 3:15:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    1.5 mm since
    July 15, 2019 00:07
    Civil Rise
    04:49
    Moon Phase
    Full (100% full)
    Civil Set
    22:00
    Day Length
    13:25:19
    Day High
    16.7° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    15.5° C @ 02:27 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.7 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.65 kPa @ 03:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    15.5° C @ 02:27 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    16.7° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0km/h @ 01:20 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

Environment Canada has issued the following special weather statement about the weekend possibilities.

3:07 PM PST Thursday 20 February 2014
Special weather statement for
Inland Vancouver Island issued

Complex weather pattern this weekend.

Environment Canada is monitoring a weather system that is forecast to reach the South Coast this weekend. Similar to recent storms that have affected the Lower Mainland, it has the potential to generate snow near sea level for portions of the South Coast. While it is possible that precipitation will fall in the form of snow, it is still highly uncertain whether surface temperatures will be sufficiently cold for snow to accumulate.

Current indications are that precipitation from this system will begin sometime Saturday and continue Sunday. Forecast certainty with regards to the location, amount, and timing of snow will increase as the weekend nears.

As of this afternoons 4PM update, they are calling for snow or rain on Saturday and rain or snow on Sunday. (whichever they mention first is most probable).

The cause of their concern is that even though most others are predicting some rain or snow mix, one normally reliable model in particular has predicted, for the past two days and four runs in a row, up to a foot of snow on the East Coast of the Island between Saturday and Sunday morning.

20140220-155751.jpg
You can see all the forecasts for that same time to see how they’ve changed by going here.

The following is a worst case scenario.

This might not happen at all, it might all fall as rain. But with the model being so persistent and the start being less than 48hrs away, it’s worth giving this rundown.

Here is the higher resolution, zoomed in version for the same 4AM Saturday to 4AM Sunday period.

20140220-160214.jpg

Again, take this as a worst case scenario, not as a perfect prediction. Duncan, Nanaimo and Courtenay are each in the red hues indicating up to a foot of snow but the entire Island is blanketed.

It will be moving over the Island from North to South.
As you can see here, this model has it starting in Courtenay by 9AM Saturday.

20140220-160815.jpg
Reaching mid island by 11AM

20140220-160938.jpg

And the Island fully involved and accumulating at 2cm (1″) per hour by 4PM.

20140220-161343.jpg

This is a worst case scenario but plan your travel carefully.

Next update from me will be late tonight or early tomorrow.