Mon. Nov 12th, 2018

Dry? Wet? Warm? Cold? Roll the dice, it ain’t December anymore.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PST Monday 12 November 2018 - Monday: Clearing. High 10. UV index 1 or low. Monday night: Increasing cloudiness. 40 percent chance of showers before morning. Low plus 3. Tuesday: Periods of rain. High 10. Tuesday night: Rain. Low 7. Wednesday: Periods of rain. High 12. Wednesday night: Showers. Low 7. Thursday: Periods of rain. High 11. Thursday night: Periods of rain. Low 7. Friday: Periods of rain. High 11. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 6. Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 10. Saturday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 6. Sunday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 10.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    3.5° C
    0.2 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    103.07 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    NNW 0.4 km/h
    gusting 3.2 km/h
    Humidity
    98 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    3.5° C
    Heat Index
    3.5° C
    Dewpoint
    3.2° C
    UV
    0.4
    Solar
    57 W/m2
    Last Updated: 10:15:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.3 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    06:49
    Moon Phase
    Waxing crescent (24% full)
    Civil Set
    17:16
    Day Length
    12:03:23
    Day High
    3.6° C @ 09:52 Tdy.
    Day Low
    1.6° C @ 04:08 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    103.23 kPa @ 00:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    103.07 kPa @ 07:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    -0.3° C @ 04:05 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    3.6° C @ 09:52 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 3.7km/h @ 02:05 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    114W/m2 @ 09:49 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.6 @ 09:46 Tdy.

It has been a rough week for forecasters and the models they rely on. After the UW GFS got its big win on Saturday when the snow appeared as it had predicted, it then completely failed to capture the severity of the snow on Sunday and especially Monday.

This week looks like it’s going to be another difficult one. We should stay dry. Though at least for the next day or so there will be a threat that a system may come ashore.

20140225-065939.jpg

You can see the rain lingering off the coast. The models and forecasts have it staying out there, pushed away by high pressure building over BC.

20140225-070159.jpg
If the high is not as strong as predicted, it may sneak through. So keep an eye on that. If there is still cold air trapped around the region, it could mean more snow, or freezing rain, for areas already buried by white stuff like Nanaimo.

Speaking of Nanaimo, it looks like there was as much as 30cm that fell at sea level in Nanoose and over 60cm at higher elevations in neighbourhoods around VIU. This is a snow event we usually associate with the Christmas and New Years season, like 1996 and 2010 when Nanaimo got 90 cm and 60 cm respectively.

Having this at the end of February is unusual. The record for snow at Vancouver Airport for February 24th was 0.4cm. They beat that. Today, they are reporting ice fog. Ice fog?

Roads aren’t great either. Highway 4 wasn’t bad but there are a number of cars in the ditch on Highway 19. Please drive carefully if you are on the East side of the Island.

If the high holds on Wednesday and Thursday we are supposed to warm up to around 10°C.

20140225-070715.jpg

But at this point that warmth looks to be short lived as we are slated for more freezing temperatures by the weekend.

Looking a little further, the jetstream is predicted to be mostly under us, which should mean cold air can come down from the North, though really it’s just a big mess.

20140225-070638.jpg

Here’s the cold air predicted for the weekend.

20140225-070644.jpg

But don’t put too much faith in that weekend forecast. The way the pattern has gone this past little while, it could be the exact opposite. One thing is for sure, we are in a completely different regime now than we were from October through January where the atmosphere was basically stuck in one configuration and one only. Now, we are left to roll the dice.