Dry? Wet? Warm? Cold? Roll the dice, it ain’t December anymore.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT
    Issued: 11:09 AM PST Thursday 22 February 2018

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PST Thursday 22 February 2018 - Thursday: Sunny. High plus 5. Thursday night: Increasing cloudiness. Low minus 5. Friday: Cloudy. Snow beginning early in the morning. Snow mixed with rain late in the afternoon. Snowfall amount 5 to 10 cm. High plus 2. Friday night: Periods of snow. Low minus 3. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 8. Saturday night: Periods of rain or snow. Low zero. Sunday: Showers. High plus 5. Sunday night: Cloudy periods with 40 percent chance of flurries. Low minus 2. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 8. Monday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. Low plus 1. Tuesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 7. Tuesday night: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. Low plus 1. Wednesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 7.

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It has been a rough week for forecasters and the models they rely on. After the UW GFS got its big win on Saturday when the snow appeared as it had predicted, it then completely failed to capture the severity of the snow on Sunday and especially Monday.

This week looks like it’s going to be another difficult one. We should stay dry. Though at least for the next day or so there will be a threat that a system may come ashore.

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You can see the rain lingering off the coast. The models and forecasts have it staying out there, pushed away by high pressure building over BC.

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If the high is not as strong as predicted, it may sneak through. So keep an eye on that. If there is still cold air trapped around the region, it could mean more snow, or freezing rain, for areas already buried by white stuff like Nanaimo.

Speaking of Nanaimo, it looks like there was as much as 30cm that fell at sea level in Nanoose and over 60cm at higher elevations in neighbourhoods around VIU. This is a snow event we usually associate with the Christmas and New Years season, like 1996 and 2010 when Nanaimo got 90 cm and 60 cm respectively.

Having this at the end of February is unusual. The record for snow at Vancouver Airport for February 24th was 0.4cm. They beat that. Today, they are reporting ice fog. Ice fog?

Roads aren’t great either. Highway 4 wasn’t bad but there are a number of cars in the ditch on Highway 19. Please drive carefully if you are on the East side of the Island.

If the high holds on Wednesday and Thursday we are supposed to warm up to around 10°C.

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But at this point that warmth looks to be short lived as we are slated for more freezing temperatures by the weekend.

Looking a little further, the jetstream is predicted to be mostly under us, which should mean cold air can come down from the North, though really it’s just a big mess.

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Here’s the cold air predicted for the weekend.

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But don’t put too much faith in that weekend forecast. The way the pattern has gone this past little while, it could be the exact opposite. One thing is for sure, we are in a completely different regime now than we were from October through January where the atmosphere was basically stuck in one configuration and one only. Now, we are left to roll the dice.