June 6, 2020

Dry? Wet? Warm? Cold? Roll the dice, it ain’t December anymore.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Saturday 06 June 2020 - Saturday: Mainly cloudy. 60 percent chance of showers late this morning and this afternoon. Risk of a thunderstorm this afternoon. High 15. UV index 5 or moderate. Saturday night: Partly cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers this evening. Fog patches developing after midnight. Low 6. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. 40 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 20. UV index 7 or high. Sunday night: Cloudy periods. Low 10. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 15. Monday night: Rain. Low 8. Tuesday: Rain. High 18. Tuesday night: Rain. Low 11. Wednesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 17. Wednesday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 11. Thursday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 18. Thursday night: Cloudy. Low 11. Friday: Cloudy. High 18.

It has been a rough week for forecasters and the models they rely on. After the UW GFS got its big win on Saturday when the snow appeared as it had predicted, it then completely failed to capture the severity of the snow on Sunday and especially Monday.

This week looks like it’s going to be another difficult one. We should stay dry. Though at least for the next day or so there will be a threat that a system may come ashore.

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You can see the rain lingering off the coast. The models and forecasts have it staying out there, pushed away by high pressure building over BC.

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If the high is not as strong as predicted, it may sneak through. So keep an eye on that. If there is still cold air trapped around the region, it could mean more snow, or freezing rain, for areas already buried by white stuff like Nanaimo.

Speaking of Nanaimo, it looks like there was as much as 30cm that fell at sea level in Nanoose and over 60cm at higher elevations in neighbourhoods around VIU. This is a snow event we usually associate with the Christmas and New Years season, like 1996 and 2010 when Nanaimo got 90 cm and 60 cm respectively.

Having this at the end of February is unusual. The record for snow at Vancouver Airport for February 24th was 0.4cm. They beat that. Today, they are reporting ice fog. Ice fog?

Roads aren’t great either. Highway 4 wasn’t bad but there are a number of cars in the ditch on Highway 19. Please drive carefully if you are on the East side of the Island.

If the high holds on Wednesday and Thursday we are supposed to warm up to around 10°C.

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But at this point that warmth looks to be short lived as we are slated for more freezing temperatures by the weekend.

Looking a little further, the jetstream is predicted to be mostly under us, which should mean cold air can come down from the North, though really it’s just a big mess.

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Here’s the cold air predicted for the weekend.

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But don’t put too much faith in that weekend forecast. The way the pattern has gone this past little while, it could be the exact opposite. One thing is for sure, we are in a completely different regime now than we were from October through January where the atmosphere was basically stuck in one configuration and one only. Now, we are left to roll the dice.