Thu. Sep 20th, 2018

Difficult week to predict

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT
    Issued: 05:42 AM PDT Thursday 20 September 2018

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Thursday 20 September 2018 - Thursday: Cloudy. Rain beginning this morning. Amount 10 to 15 mm. High 14. UV index 1 or low. Thursday night: Rain. Amount 20 to 30 mm. Temperature steady near 12. Friday: Showers at times heavy. Risk of a thunderstorm late in the morning and early afternoon. Amount 25 mm. High 16. UV index 2 or low. Friday night: Showers. Low 11. Saturday: Rain. High 16. Saturday night: Showers. Low 11. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Sunday night: Clear. Low 8. Monday: Sunny. High 21. Monday night: Clear. Low 7. Tuesday: Sunny. High 20. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 8. Wednesday: Sunny. High 20.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    13.2° C
    0.5 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.93 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    SSE 0.0 km/h
    gusting 1.6 km/h
    Humidity
    89 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    13.2° C
    Heat Index
    13.2° C
    Dewpoint
    11.4° C
    UV
    0.9
    Solar
    119 W/m2
    Last Updated: 10:55:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    06:30
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (83% full)
    Civil Set
    19:53
    Day Length
    13:12:31
    Day High
    13.2° C @ 10:27 Tdy.
    Day Low
    11.7° C @ 07:28 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.98 kPa @ 08:43 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.87 kPa @ 01:28 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    11.7° C @ 07:28 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    13.2° C @ 10:27 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 1.6km/h @ 05:10 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    178W/m2 @ 10:44 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    1.2 @ 10:42 Tdy.

You may notice this post is tagged, cold, wet, wind, and storm. We could get it all.

First, Monday: Today will stay cold and dry. The latest NAM and GFS model runs agree that there is more chance for snow on the East coast, (coming off the Strait) than there is for Port Alberni. But there is still likely to be snow for both. Expect no more than 2cm this afternoon and through the evening in either place. Also expect it to get down to -5C or colder tonight as it did last night.

Tuesday: Cold no Snow

Wednesday/Thursday: Difficult to say could be nothing, could be dangerous. The models have been flip flopping about the events of Wednesday and Thursday and it has me, and every weather person I follow confused.

Scenarios, in order of likeliness based on what I’ve seen from the models and heard elsewhere.

#1: if the storm heads well south of us through Washington, then we will remain dry, and quite cold and there won’t be much to say.

#2: if the storm is not too far south, say it passes over the Olympics or through Puget Sound, then we could have huge snow storm potential.

#3: If the storm is anywhere north of the border, then we can expect possibly a big dump, followed by a quick change to rain with possibly some wind.

The models seem to be taking the storm south more often than, not, so I’m betting most on the first two options.

Here is what the GFS has for now: this will likely change.

The precipitation:

20120116-073255.jpg

The temperature:

20120116-073331.jpg

What is without doubt is that Friday the coast will have a major low push through down to 970mb. This will produce strong winds. It should all be rain by then, but if we end up still in the deep freeze on Wednesday and Thursday then Friday could be really really ugly.

Here’s the model for pressure… Look at that dip on Friday! (Saturday ain’t shabby either)

20120116-073437.jpg

It looks like we won’t know all this for sure until we get within 24hrs of each event… Stayed tuned.

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