Sun. Nov 18th, 2018

Difficult week to predict

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PST Sunday 18 November 2018 - Sunday: Sunny. Fog patches dissipating this morning. High 9. UV index 1 or low. Sunday night: Clear. Fog patches developing overnight. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 1. Wind chill minus 3 overnight. Monday: Sunny. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 9. UV index 1 or low. Monday night: Cloudy periods. Low zero. Tuesday: Cloudy. High 8. Tuesday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 4. Wednesday: Rain. High 8. Wednesday night: Showers. Low plus 5. Thursday: Rain. High 9. Thursday night: Rain. Low plus 4. Friday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 8. Friday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low plus 4. Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 8.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    2.1° C
    0.2 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.42 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    E 0.7 km/h
    gusting 4.8 km/h
    Humidity
    99 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    2.1° C
    Heat Index
    2.1° C
    Dewpoint
    1.9° C
    UV
    0.5
    Solar
    63 W/m2
    Last Updated: 10:05:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    06:58
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (79% full)
    Civil Set
    17:10
    Day Length
    12:04:26
    Day High
    2.1° C @ 09:40 Tdy.
    Day Low
    0.5° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.56 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.42 kPa @ 09:59 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    -1.4° C @ 07:48 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    2.1° C @ 09:40 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 4.3km/h @ 05:15 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    67W/m2 @ 09:53 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.5 @ 09:51 Tdy.

You may notice this post is tagged, cold, wet, wind, and storm. We could get it all.

First, Monday: Today will stay cold and dry. The latest NAM and GFS model runs agree that there is more chance for snow on the East coast, (coming off the Strait) than there is for Port Alberni. But there is still likely to be snow for both. Expect no more than 2cm this afternoon and through the evening in either place. Also expect it to get down to -5C or colder tonight as it did last night.

Tuesday: Cold no Snow

Wednesday/Thursday: Difficult to say could be nothing, could be dangerous. The models have been flip flopping about the events of Wednesday and Thursday and it has me, and every weather person I follow confused.

Scenarios, in order of likeliness based on what I’ve seen from the models and heard elsewhere.

#1: if the storm heads well south of us through Washington, then we will remain dry, and quite cold and there won’t be much to say.

#2: if the storm is not too far south, say it passes over the Olympics or through Puget Sound, then we could have huge snow storm potential.

#3: If the storm is anywhere north of the border, then we can expect possibly a big dump, followed by a quick change to rain with possibly some wind.

The models seem to be taking the storm south more often than, not, so I’m betting most on the first two options.

Here is what the GFS has for now: this will likely change.

The precipitation:

20120116-073255.jpg

The temperature:

20120116-073331.jpg

What is without doubt is that Friday the coast will have a major low push through down to 970mb. This will produce strong winds. It should all be rain by then, but if we end up still in the deep freeze on Wednesday and Thursday then Friday could be really really ugly.

Here’s the model for pressure… Look at that dip on Friday! (Saturday ain’t shabby either)

20120116-073437.jpg

It looks like we won’t know all this for sure until we get within 24hrs of each event… Stayed tuned.

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