Tue. Nov 20th, 2018

Definite change coming

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Tuesday 20 November 2018 - Tuesday night: Cloudy. Rain beginning after midnight. Amount 10 mm. Low plus 3. Wednesday: Rain. Amount 15 to 25 mm. High 8. Wednesday night: Showers. Amount 5 mm. Low plus 5. Thursday: Rain. High 9. Thursday night: Rain. Low plus 4. Friday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 8. Friday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low plus 4. Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 8. Saturday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low plus 5. Sunday: Periods of rain. High 9. Sunday night: Periods of rain. Low 6. Monday: Rain. High 10.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    4.6° C
    -0.2 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.11 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    98 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    4.6° C
    Heat Index
    4.6° C
    Dewpoint
    4.3° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 17:20:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:00
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (94% full)
    Civil Set
    17:08
    Day Length
    12:04:54
    Day High
    4.9° C @ 14:50 Tdy.
    Day Low
    1.8° C @ 01:44 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.83 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.11 kPa @ 17:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    -0.4° C @ 00:12 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    4.9° C @ 14:50 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 3.5km/h @ 00:10 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    139W/m2 @ 12:06 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.8 @ 12:07 Tdy.

We’re going to get another bout of heavy rain tomorrow…. but I’m looking beyond that now because if the models are accurate (and they’ve been consistent on this for almost a week now) we look to be setting up for another bout of cold and potentially snowy, weather.

Here are todays results from the Global Forecast System.

First the short range forecast including the rain tomorrow.
Feb 13

The bars are precipitation… notice the main shot on Monday through Tuesday morning.

What’s interesting is the break about 1/3 the way through…. if you look at the other graphs you’ll see that break marks a change. Particularly the 850MB chart shows the air aloft will turn cold and stay that way. That likely means some arctic air will be making its way here and any precipitation that falls after Tuesday could fall as snow.

Here’s the following week up until March.

Feb 13

If that model pans out… everything between Tuesday and March 1 could be snow!

Whatever happens…it’s setting us up to be below freezing for a couple weeks.

14 thoughts on “Definite change coming

    1. checked it out………..lol………so cool to us weather fanatics! Showed it to son and husband 🙁 ….What do they know? Watching golf would be the only excitement around here, if I wasn’t around. They all think I am messed up. I got all excited seeing it again! Ready for the next bit of fun!!!!!!

  1. The Barometer is already lower than it was on Saturday, so the potential for strong wind is certainly there. It all depends on if it comes roaring up the Inlet or gets stopped by a mountain or two.

    1. It’s been blowing in Ukee pretty good all morning. Raining too. We were gonna head for Toquart Bay for a campfire, but I kaibashed that idea due to the rainfall. Might go look at Long Beach This afternoon.

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