Sun. Aug 19th, 2018

Confidence grows for snow Saturday/Sunday – will be updating later – and snowpack!

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - SPECIAL AIR QUALITY STATEMENT IN EFFECT
    Issued: 9:16 PM PDT Saturday 18 August 2018

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Saturday 18 August 2018 - Saturday night: Clear. Local smoke. Low 11. Sunday: Sunny. Local smoke. High 33. Humidex 36. UV index 7 or high. Sunday night: Clear. Local smoke. Low 12. Monday: Sunny. High 34. Monday night: Clear. Low 12. Tuesday: Sunny. High 34. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 13. Wednesday: Sunny. High 24. Wednesday night: Cloudy periods. Low 14. Thursday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 21. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low 13. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    19.4° C
    -0.9 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.9 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    66 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    19.4° C
    Heat Index
    19.4° C
    Dewpoint
    12.9° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 22:55:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    05:39
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (59% full)
    Civil Set
    21:05
    Day Length
    13:22:59
    Day High
    29.8° C @ 15:23 Tdy.
    Day Low
    11.7° C @ 06:30 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.42 kPa @ 07:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.79 kPa @ 19:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    11.7° C @ 06:30 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    29.8° C @ 15:23 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 16.3km/h @ 16:05 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    1220W/m2 @ 13:26 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    7.8 @ 13:25 Tdy.

We are going to get a bit of a break from the wet snowy weather today and Friday but the weekend is still a big question mark.

The GFS out of The University of Washington has been going strongly in favour of heavy snow late Saturday and into Sunday. None of the other models, the Canadian, the NAM or others have shown this, which is why up until today you did not see anything in the official forecast.

The UWGFS has now carried this prediction from its long range into its short range (less than three days) forecast. This gives it a lot more weight.

I’m going to post an image from a new source this morning. This image is still from UW, but it is generated from an Ensemble. That means multiple models from UW, the GFS, Canadian, Japanese, UK and others are all run at once and averaged to come up with a best estimate from all, called ‘centroid’.

They are not as fine grained and detailed as the UW GFS by itself, but they give a good idea of the overall grasp the various computer models have.

Here is the precipitation and temperature map for Saturday from the centroid.

20140220-071001.jpg

20140220-071120.jpg

Blue means at or very near freezing and the precipitation map is self explanatory. As you can see, the conditions are ripe for snow.

I will not be posting the normal UW snow map until the new run this morning. This will be a crucial run as it will be the second of the short range runs and we will get to see just how confident all of the models are.

Take this as a heads up that significant snow could still be in the forecast for the east coast of the island especially late Saturday and into Sunday.

I will update this post later this morning ones the runs are complete.

And oh ya, GO CANADA!

I almost forgot! I wanted to include the latest snowpack graph! It is looking much much healthier. I’m hoping we can breath a bit easier now.

20140220-072953.jpg

As you can see it has jumped up considerably thanks to the past few days. It’s still nowhere near normal, but it’s not historically low either. We will be going into another extended dry stretch after this weekend, but it should not diminish too much. As long as we don’t get any early warm rain systems, we are now at least somewhat protected from disaster in the summer. And Mt. Washington is happy too.