Cold and Wet June finally ending

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PST Saturday 24 February 2018 - Saturday: Mainly sunny. Increasing cloudiness this afternoon then 40 percent chance of rain late this afternoon except wet snow over higher terrain. High 6. Saturday night: Rain ending after midnight then cloudy. Wet snow over higher terrain. Becoming windy late this evening. Low plus 2. Sunday: Rain showers or wet flurries. High 6. Sunday night: Rain showers or flurries. Low minus 2. Monday: Cloudy. High 8. Monday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 1. Tuesday: Cloudy. High 7. Tuesday night: Clear. Low minus 2. Wednesday: Rain or snow. High plus 4. Wednesday night: Rain. Low plus 1. Thursday: Periods of rain. High 7. Thursday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 1. Friday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 7.

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It hasn’t been a nice month. Juneuary, Junevember, no doubt there are other, less diplomatic terms. 🙂

Here are the stats over the past few years just to prove the point. I will update this post on Sunday with the final values but unless we get an unexpected heat wave tomorrow the message is not going to change.

————–Average————————–
Year—High–Low—Mean—-Rain—-Wind
2006: 25.6C 11.1C 17.7C 28.7mm 6.5kph
2007: 21.8C 10.1C 14.9C 69.7mm 7.0kph
2008: 22.3C 9.6C 14.9C 27.7mm 8.2kph
2009: 25.2C 11.6C 17.8C 18.3mm 7.7kph
2010: 19.1C 10.0C 14.1C 26.4mm 8.1kph
2011: 18.9C 10.8C 14.5C 17.8mm 7.2kph
2012: 17.3C 9.7C 13.3C 61.0mm 6.8kph
——30yr Normals from EnvCan at Harbour (A)——
71-’00: 20.5C 8.6C 14.5C 75mm 9.4kph
61-90: 20.5C 8.4C 14.5C 47.3mm —
——30yr Normals from EnvCan at Robertson Crk—–
71-’00: 21.4C 8.5C 15C 59.6mm —–
61-90: 21.9C 8.4C 15.2C 49.3mm —

I’ve highlighted the low and wet extremes in blue and the high and dry extremes in red.

As you can see, compared to the last few years, 2012 is very much a low point. Even in terms of wind and rain we are running a pretty close 2nd. Its almost laughable to think that we are a full 8C cooler than the average high of just three years ago. It’s no wonder people are complaining

In terms of comparisons with long term climate normals averages from Environment Canada which again we would definitely be on the low swing of the graph. My station would be most analogous to the Harbour station in the climate records. I do find it very interesting that our average daily lows are nearly a degree above normal. This likely has to do with increased cloud cover keeping the temperatures from swinging overnight.

I’ve included the trend over the last 60 years to show the normals have not budged much in terms of temperature with slightly lower highs in June at Robertson Creek (inland) but no change at the Harbour while daytime lows have increased in both those cases.

What really sticks out to me is the rain totals. Notice that the top two years of the past six for rain have been 2007 and 2012. These two years were almost completely opposite in terms of terms of temperature.

Long term it seems to indicate while we havent seen any warming at all for the month of June over the past sixty years, we do seem to be seeing a strong trend upward in the amount of June rain… June 2012 is below normal for rain for the Harbour compared to the 71-2000 normals, but above the previous 61-90 normal.

I’m looking forward to Environment Canada releasing the next decade update showing the Normals from 1980-2010. When that comes out is anyone’s guess, especially considering the cutbacks they are suffering.

So when will summer finally come? Well… What if I told you that I think it might not really come, much like last year. It seems our only hope is a big kick from El Niño, but he’s looking pretty weak for the next few months at least.

There does appear to be a dry spell coming after Tuesday though, with the possibility of our first 30C day around the 10th… so that’s nice. Remember the heat contest? Ha! 🙂

One Reply to “Cold and Wet June finally ending”

  1. I’m so excited to see this! YAY! I do feel sorry for all the people who really wait for summer and are missing out of super fun events due to the rain and cold. But, you just make new events! And you dress for the weather and force yourself to find ways to love it! Positive points…. 1) most campsites will be emptier – you can have the place to yourself!  2)you don’t have to water all the gardens and your grass will stay green! 3) low forest fire risk and the bushes will stay open. 4) LOTS of mud to play in if you are into outdoor sports (I like atv’ing) 5) You can go fishing and hiking and have the beauty all to yourself. 6) we can all sleep without sweating to death, or listening to the AC blasting! The weather is mild enough to be comfortable all day and night.
    So put on your slickers and puddle jumpers, and get out there and have fun! Embrace what we have been given – may not be what you wanted, but it could be fun if you let it!
     Find a dot you haven’t been to on the map of the island, and go find it! Make sure to get OUT of your vehicle and explore the place!!! My crappy day saying has always been *(%$ IT – I’M GOING TO HAVE FUN! You may have the best time EVER!

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