Mon. Jul 15th, 2019

Cold and Wet June finally ending

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Monday 15 July 2019 - Monday night: Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers early this evening with risk of thunderstorms. Low 15. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. 30 percent chance of showers in the morning. High 25. Humidex 27. UV index 8 or very high. Tuesday night: Cloudy. Rain beginning in the evening. Low 14. Wednesday: Periods of rain. High 21. Wednesday night: Cloudy periods with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 9. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 21. Friday night: Cloudy periods. Low 11. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 21. Saturday night: Cloudy periods. Low 12. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 22.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    19.1° C
    -0.5 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.65 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    Humidity
    87 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    19.1° C
    Heat Index
    19.1° C
    Dewpoint
    16.9° C
    UV
    0.5
    Solar
    96 W/m2
    Last Updated: 19:30:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    1.5 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    1.5 mm since
    July 15, 2019 00:07
    Civil Rise
    04:47
    Moon Phase
    Full (99% full)
    Civil Set
    22:01
    Day Length
    13:25:13
    Day High
    27.1° C @ 14:22 Tdy.
    Day Low
    12.6° C @ 05:44 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    4.1mm/hr @ 17:06 Tdy.
    Day High Barometer
    101.81 kPa @ 00:13 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.51 kPa @ 14:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    12.6° C @ 05:44 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    27.2° C @ 14:22 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 20km/h @ 15:35 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    1134W/m2 @ 14:22 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    6.8 @ 13:05 Tdy.

It hasn’t been a nice month. Juneuary, Junevember, no doubt there are other, less diplomatic terms. 🙂

Here are the stats over the past few years just to prove the point. I will update this post on Sunday with the final values but unless we get an unexpected heat wave tomorrow the message is not going to change.

————–Average————————–
Year—High–Low—Mean—-Rain—-Wind
2006: 25.6C 11.1C 17.7C 28.7mm 6.5kph
2007: 21.8C 10.1C 14.9C 69.7mm 7.0kph
2008: 22.3C 9.6C 14.9C 27.7mm 8.2kph
2009: 25.2C 11.6C 17.8C 18.3mm 7.7kph
2010: 19.1C 10.0C 14.1C 26.4mm 8.1kph
2011: 18.9C 10.8C 14.5C 17.8mm 7.2kph
2012: 17.3C 9.7C 13.3C 61.0mm 6.8kph
——30yr Normals from EnvCan at Harbour (A)——
71-’00: 20.5C 8.6C 14.5C 75mm 9.4kph
61-90: 20.5C 8.4C 14.5C 47.3mm —
——30yr Normals from EnvCan at Robertson Crk—–
71-’00: 21.4C 8.5C 15C 59.6mm —–
61-90: 21.9C 8.4C 15.2C 49.3mm —

I’ve highlighted the low and wet extremes in blue and the high and dry extremes in red.

As you can see, compared to the last few years, 2012 is very much a low point. Even in terms of wind and rain we are running a pretty close 2nd. Its almost laughable to think that we are a full 8C cooler than the average high of just three years ago. It’s no wonder people are complaining

In terms of comparisons with long term climate normals averages from Environment Canada which again we would definitely be on the low swing of the graph. My station would be most analogous to the Harbour station in the climate records. I do find it very interesting that our average daily lows are nearly a degree above normal. This likely has to do with increased cloud cover keeping the temperatures from swinging overnight.

I’ve included the trend over the last 60 years to show the normals have not budged much in terms of temperature with slightly lower highs in June at Robertson Creek (inland) but no change at the Harbour while daytime lows have increased in both those cases.

What really sticks out to me is the rain totals. Notice that the top two years of the past six for rain have been 2007 and 2012. These two years were almost completely opposite in terms of terms of temperature.

Long term it seems to indicate while we havent seen any warming at all for the month of June over the past sixty years, we do seem to be seeing a strong trend upward in the amount of June rain… June 2012 is below normal for rain for the Harbour compared to the 71-2000 normals, but above the previous 61-90 normal.

I’m looking forward to Environment Canada releasing the next decade update showing the Normals from 1980-2010. When that comes out is anyone’s guess, especially considering the cutbacks they are suffering.

So when will summer finally come? Well… What if I told you that I think it might not really come, much like last year. It seems our only hope is a big kick from El Niño, but he’s looking pretty weak for the next few months at least.

There does appear to be a dry spell coming after Tuesday though, with the possibility of our first 30C day around the 10th… so that’s nice. Remember the heat contest? Ha! 🙂

1 thought on “Cold and Wet June finally ending

  1. I’m so excited to see this! YAY! I do feel sorry for all the people who really wait for summer and are missing out of super fun events due to the rain and cold. But, you just make new events! And you dress for the weather and force yourself to find ways to love it! Positive points…. 1) most campsites will be emptier – you can have the place to yourself!  2)you don’t have to water all the gardens and your grass will stay green! 3) low forest fire risk and the bushes will stay open. 4) LOTS of mud to play in if you are into outdoor sports (I like atv’ing) 5) You can go fishing and hiking and have the beauty all to yourself. 6) we can all sleep without sweating to death, or listening to the AC blasting! The weather is mild enough to be comfortable all day and night.
    So put on your slickers and puddle jumpers, and get out there and have fun! Embrace what we have been given – may not be what you wanted, but it could be fun if you let it!
     Find a dot you haven’t been to on the map of the island, and go find it! Make sure to get OUT of your vehicle and explore the place!!! My crappy day saying has always been *(%$ IT – I’M GOING TO HAVE FUN! You may have the best time EVER!

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