October 20, 2020

Clear Morning – More Rain Late Week then… “S”?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Tuesday 20 October 2020 - Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. 40 percent chance of showers late this afternoon. Fog patches dissipating this morning. High 13. UV index 3 or moderate. Tuesday night: Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers this evening and after midnight. Low plus 4. Wednesday: Clearing late in the morning. High 10. UV index 2 or low. Wednesday night: Clear. Low minus 2. Thursday: Sunny. High 9. Thursday night: Rain. Low plus 3. Friday: Rain. Windy. High 7. Friday night: Clear. Low minus 2. Saturday: Sunny. High plus 4. Saturday night: Clear. Low minus 3. Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 9. Sunday night: Cloudy periods. Low plus 1. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 9.

At this moment as I type if you step outside you’ll be greeted with a stiff breeze and bright twinkling stars above. Not bad I’d say.

We should have a nice break from the rain this morning. Then there will be a chance for some showers through the day before it clears up a little more in the afternoon and evening and into tomorrow. We’re looking at another bout of rain on Thursday but after that it should quiet down a bunch.

We remain on track to break the record dryness since July.

July-October, 1896 got 159mm, 1929 got 214.9mm, and 2012 has 36.2mm 104.4mm 115.6mm so far. So we need over 122.8mm 54.6mm 43.4mm to dodge the 1896 record.

Here is a curveball to throw into the mix:

What if I told you the models at Accuweather and the GFS are showing us getting below freezing with precipitation?

Going into next week, the GFS model ensembles below are in good agreement showing widespread cold covering much of western Canada, especially from BC to Alberta, where temperatures from Monday to Wednesday next week could be as much as 8 to 12 C below normal.

There were hints of this cooldown late last week, but there was so much going on with the rainstorm that it didn’t seem like a good time to point them out. Especially since they were so far out in the forecast. Now… they are not so far out anymore.
Here is the chart for the GFS:

Notice the bottom of the graph is set at -1C. It looks like by Saturday or Sunday we could have highs in the low-single-digits.

It’s worth noting though that Environment Canada isn’t going anywhere near this cold at this point. They still have in the 10s. But they seem to be the outliers now. We shall see who comes around. We should at least get some white stuff on the mountains.

Finally, don’t forget about the Great BC ShakeOut. Click on the link at the top right and leave a comment to register to DROP, COVER and HOLD ON! 🙂

1 thought on “Clear Morning – More Rain Late Week then… “S”?

  1. This morning’s GFS temperature chart looks like it has moved down a degree or two for early next week.

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