Fri. Dec 14th, 2018

Calm before the Weekend Storm

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - WIND WARNING IN EFFECT
    Issued: 3:52 PM PST Friday 14 December 2018

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Friday 14 December 2018 - Friday night: Rain ending this evening then cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. Wind east 30 km/h becoming southwest 50 gusting to 90 early this evening then light late this evening. Low plus 3. Saturday: Cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers in the morning. Rain beginning near noon. High 6. Saturday night: Rain. Temperature steady near plus 5. Sunday: Rain. High 6. Sunday night: Rain. Low 6. Monday: Rain. High 7. Monday night: Rain. Low 6. Tuesday: Rain. High 7. Tuesday night: Rain. Low 7. Wednesday: Rain. High 8. Wednesday night: Rain. Low plus 5. Thursday: Periods of rain. High 7.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    6.6° C
    -1.6 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    99.42 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    S 32.4 km/h
    gusting 62.8 km/h
    Humidity
    91 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    2.0° C
    Heat Index
    6.6° C
    Dewpoint
    5.2° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 17:40:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    43.9 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:28
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (46% full)
    Civil Set
    16:59
    Day Length
    12:14:00
    Day High
    10.6° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    6.6° C @ 17:37 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    9.1mm/hr @ 08:02 Tdy.
    Day High Barometer
    100.36 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    99.05 kPa @ 14:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    0.3° C @ 17:37 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    10.6° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 39.7km/h @ 17:30 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    32W/m2 @ 14:11 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

Murphy has reared his ironic head and ensured that what looks like the strongest storm of the winter so far will appear when my weather station is offline.

Oh well, we can still admire it coming, revel in its effects, and watch other sources for the details (he says through gritted teeth :))

The next two days, Wednesday and Thursday are going to be quite nice. And compared to what is coming for the weekend, it will be very nice indeed… Unless of course you like storms, which if you follow this blog, you may!

So here we go:

First the GFS model
20121114-070956.jpg

The rain and wind will hit on Friday evening. I would expect wind and possibly rain
warnings to be posted Friday morning for the West Coast. We likely will not get wind warnings on Central Vancouver Island but the East and South Coasts are more likely. The arrows emphasize the points of strongest winds and rains which should be around 7AM Saturday (the hour will likely shift a bit between now and then)

The first storm will ease Saturday afternoon. Then the next will come through Sunday night into Monday morning.

What I find most interesting about these storms is where they are coming from.

Instead of the usual train of systems curling up from the West and South and slamming into our Central and North coasts, these systems are coming down from the Gulf of Alaska and sinking down along the coast before turning East into land. This is kinda new for me… At least in the strength of them.

Here is the European model (considered the best in the world) showing Monday mornings storm.

20121114-072025.jpg

I’ve drawn the arrow to show the winds along the pressure lines. You can also see the low pressure centre up off the Charlottes and another up in the Gulf which is where these lows seem to be generating from.

In my very limited experience ive found these southbound systems to be weaker and come in the winter time and bring us snow… But there will be no snow this time and it is far from weak. Just goes to show there is much to learn!

So, batten down the hatches. The weekend should be fun, and I will see if I can’t russel up some current conditions to display on the front page while my station is under repair.

2 thoughts on “Calm before the Weekend Storm

  1. You do a wonderful job I have learned so much from your local interpitation

    that i always try to at least look

    Thank you and keep it going
    Did not get much done but had fun

    George Grieder mid Beaver Creek

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