Tue. Nov 20th, 2018

Big Snowfall on its way

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Tuesday 20 November 2018 - Tuesday night: Cloudy. Rain beginning after midnight. Amount 10 mm. Low plus 3. Wednesday: Rain. Amount 15 to 25 mm. High 8. Wednesday night: Showers. Amount 5 mm. Low plus 5. Thursday: Rain. High 9. Thursday night: Rain. Low plus 4. Friday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 8. Friday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low plus 4. Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 8. Saturday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low plus 5. Sunday: Periods of rain. High 9. Sunday night: Periods of rain. Low 6. Monday: Rain. High 10.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    4.6° C
    -0.2 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.11 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    98 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    4.6° C
    Heat Index
    4.6° C
    Dewpoint
    4.3° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 17:20:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:00
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (94% full)
    Civil Set
    17:08
    Day Length
    12:04:54
    Day High
    4.9° C @ 14:50 Tdy.
    Day Low
    1.8° C @ 01:44 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.83 kPa @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.11 kPa @ 17:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    -0.4° C @ 00:12 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    4.9° C @ 14:50 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 3.5km/h @ 00:10 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    139W/m2 @ 12:06 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.8 @ 12:07 Tdy.

UPDATED: See updated images, the old ones I’ve moved to the bottom so you can compare… actually looks a little colder, more snowy. A little.

The models all agree. The forecasters all agree. We’re going to get snow. And a bunch of it.

Environment Canada is predicting 10-20cm through Tuesday night.

Accuweather.com is predicting a similar amount, up to 40cm through Tuesday and Wednesday.

About half that is supposed to fall on the East Coast.

Here’s a bit of graphical analysis using our trusty GFS:

Here’s the precip: The big question is when is the switch to Freezing Rain and finally Rain. I’m putting my bets now on Thursday morning.

Here’s the “upper level” forecast temperatures. This tells us whether stuff falls as rain or snow.

And finally here’s the ground level temperatures… somewhat less reliable I find.

And for a grand finale for this post here’s the deal for Friday afternoon.

Lots of rain…

With the snow, make sure your drains are clear, we could have major flooding problems on Thursday and/or Friday.

But that’s nothing compared to what’s on “tap” for next week.

Old Images (archive only, use ones above for current forecast):


23 thoughts on “Big Snowfall on its way

  1. Also interesting how the updated one now has the temperature going back down going into early next week. It snowed a little overnight here in North Port, but I think by noon it’ll re

  2. I was thinking the same thing Eve. I was expecting it to be a degree or two cooler before this all happened. If we start out at 0C we might start with sleet, go to snow and then go straight to rain. Or not have any snow at all.

    We’ll see, by the radar we’re probably another hour or so before flurries begin in earnest.

  3. I think the temps might drop a bit as the precip moves in. Temps aloft look to be still fairly cold, so if the precip is heavy enough it will drag this cold air down to the surface. Also some evaporational cooling may take place as the precip falls into drier air. I think 20cm may be overdone but not out of the question. If I had to guess I would go with 15cm by morning.

  4. I don’t know folks….I spent all day at work assuring people “it’ll come, it’ll come, just wait”, but now I’m not so sure. The system is several hours behind schedule, and it just doesn’t look hefty enough to pack the amount of snow we expected.

  5. Well its snowing, mind you light flakes but the wind is strong blowing it all over……very cool out here in Beaver Creek.

  6. Maybe one of the other “GEEKS”(and in this case I only use that term with the utmost admiration)might have a different opinion?????PLEASE?
    Still snowin’ and blowin’ here!

  7. Thanks Eve, I actually self-identify as a Weather Geek, but I’m not wearing the label too proudly at the moment. I fear I may have over-stated the intensity of this storm. In my defense, I get all my information from other Geeks out there who seem to have more knowledge and time than I do. Still, I’m just sayin’, it’s not looking real promising for this “Major” snow event some of us were hoping for.

  8. Bill, it’s doing the snowstorm thing out here………..so I have the utmost confidence in you, and the rest of the wonderful geeks! I talked to my Mom on 10th near the dip and it’s snowing there toooooo! You guys done good! Happy snowstorm!!!!

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