Sat. Sep 21st, 2019

Beauty Day on the Way! Warm week, La Nina history.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 11:00 AM PDT Saturday 21 September 2019 - Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 19. UV index 2 or low. Saturday night: Rain. Amount 10 to 20 mm. Low 15. Sunday: Rain ending in the morning then mainly cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Amount 5 mm. High 18. UV index 3 or moderate. Sunday night: Cloudy periods. Low 11. Monday: Periods of rain. High 14. Monday night: Rain. Low 11. Tuesday: Sunny. High 20. Tuesday night: Clear. Low 10. Wednesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 15. Wednesday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 7. Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 17. Thursday night: Cloudy periods. Low 6. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 16.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    19.5° C
    0.4 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.69 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    SSW 8 km/h
    gusting 16 km/h
    Humidity
    71 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    19.5° C
    Heat Index
    19.5° C
    Dewpoint
    14.1° C
    UV
    2.3
    Solar
    283 W/m2
    Last Updated: 14:15:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    No Qualifying Rainfall mm
    Civil Rise
    06:31
    Moon Phase
    Last quarter (53% full)
    Civil Set
    19:52
    Day Length
    13:12:14
    Day High
    19.5° C @ 14:13 Tdy.
    Day Low
    13.9° C @ 02:33 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.04 kPa @ 02:13 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.69 kPa @ 14:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    13.9° C @ 02:33 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    19.5° C @ 14:13 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 13km/h @ 14:10 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    770W/m2 @ 11:41 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    4.0 @ 11:41 Tdy.

It’s going to be a beauty out there today. The low cloud should burn off by mid morning and reveal the clear blue skies that are above.

Today and tomorrow will be a grand day for a walk. There are plenty of little streams to check out.

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Next week is gong to be a wet on and off… But warm! Check it out!

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Who know maybe if we’re lucky we’ll get close to 20 🙂

In wider news:
Brett Anderson at Accuweather just updated his long term forecast which shows going into May cool or seasonal in temperatures and starting to move toward drier than normal conditions.

La Nina was officially declared over yesterday. We have now moved into Neutral territory and most forecasts are predicting a weak El Niño for the fall and winter. Since the transition has been quite gradual the La Nina like weather patterns will take a while to dissipate and so will persist for us probably into early summer and El Niño type warmer, wetter, patterns likely wont take hold until Fall if the waters indeed keep warming off of South America.

Closer to home, we are still being heavily influenced by the cold phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. You can see the data (bottom of page) here that shows it has been gradually warming since bottoming out last July at a -1.89C anomaly. The latest data for February show a -0.85C anomaly and current SSTs look to be continuing that trend as they approach 0C anomalies (in white below)

20120420-072246.jpg

It all adds up to what should be a much less chilly and unpleasant summer, fall, and warmer winter (perhaps no 567cm base on Mt Washington next year?)