Sat. Feb 23rd, 2019

Beauty Day on the Way! Warm week, La Nina history.

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Saturday 23 February 2019 - Saturday night: Rain showers and flurries changing to a few flurries near midnight. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 1. Wind chill minus 3 overnight. Sunday: Clearing in the morning. High 7. UV index 2 or low. Sunday night: Clear. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 5. Wind chill near minus 7. Monday: Sunny. High plus 5. Monday night: Clear. Low minus 6. Tuesday: Sunny. High plus 4. Tuesday night: Clear. Low minus 7. Wednesday: Snow. High plus 3. Wednesday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. Low zero. Thursday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries or rain showers. High 7. Thursday night: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of rain showers or flurries. Low zero. Friday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 7.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    5.1° C
    0.1 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.73 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    86 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    5.1° C
    Heat Index
    5.1° C
    Dewpoint
    3.0° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    68 W/m2
    Last Updated: 16:40:00 PST
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.3 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    06:40
    Moon Phase
    Waning gibbous (75% full)
    Civil Set
    18:25
    Day Length
    12:32:32
    Day High
    6.9° C @ 14:00 Tdy.
    Day Low
    -1.6° C @ 01:46 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.77 kPa @ 11:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.51 kPa @ 00:13 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    -1.6° C @ 01:46 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    6.9° C @ 14:00 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 14.6km/h @ 15:05 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    650W/m2 @ 12:25 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    1.7 @ 12:25 Tdy.

It’s going to be a beauty out there today. The low cloud should burn off by mid morning and reveal the clear blue skies that are above.

Today and tomorrow will be a grand day for a walk. There are plenty of little streams to check out.

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Next week is gong to be a wet on and off… But warm! Check it out!

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Who know maybe if we’re lucky we’ll get close to 20 🙂

In wider news:
Brett Anderson at Accuweather just updated his long term forecast which shows going into May cool or seasonal in temperatures and starting to move toward drier than normal conditions.

La Nina was officially declared over yesterday. We have now moved into Neutral territory and most forecasts are predicting a weak El Niño for the fall and winter. Since the transition has been quite gradual the La Nina like weather patterns will take a while to dissipate and so will persist for us probably into early summer and El Niño type warmer, wetter, patterns likely wont take hold until Fall if the waters indeed keep warming off of South America.

Closer to home, we are still being heavily influenced by the cold phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. You can see the data (bottom of page) here that shows it has been gradually warming since bottoming out last July at a -1.89C anomaly. The latest data for February show a -0.85C anomaly and current SSTs look to be continuing that trend as they approach 0C anomalies (in white below)

20120420-072246.jpg

It all adds up to what should be a much less chilly and unpleasant summer, fall, and warmer winter (perhaps no 567cm base on Mt Washington next year?)