Sat. Oct 20th, 2018

August 2014 Summary and Fall Forecast – Hot, dry, Lightning

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - FOG ADVISORY , Port Alberni
    Issued: 4:19 PM PDT Friday 19 October 2018

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Friday 19 October 2018 - Friday night: Partly cloudy. Fog developing this evening. Low 6. Saturday: Fog dissipating in the morning then a mix of sun and cloud. High 17. UV index 3 or moderate. Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Fog developing near midnight. Low plus 4. Sunday: Fog. High 20. Sunday night: Fog. Low 6. Monday: Fog. High 15. Monday night: Cloudy. Low 9. Tuesday: Periods of rain. High 14. Tuesday night: Rain. Low 9. Wednesday: Periods of rain. High 13. Wednesday night: Rain. Low 8. Thursday: Rain. High 12.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    8.8° C
    0.2 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.52 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0.0 km/h
    gusting 0.0 km/h
    Humidity
    96 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    8.8° C
    Heat Index
    8.8° C
    Dewpoint
    8.2° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 3:10:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    07:14
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (82% full)
    Civil Set
    18:52
    Day Length
    13:03:57
    Day High
    8.8° C @ 02:44 Tdy.
    Day Low
    7.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.56 kPa @ 02:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.52 kPa @ 02:59 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    7.3° C @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    8.8° C @ 02:44 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 1.7km/h @ 01:00 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    0W/m2 @ 00:00 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    0.0 @ 00:00 Tdy.

A Significantly warmer than normal August, with half the normal rain is leading into a warm and dry fall and possibly winter as well. This was also the warmest August at Alberniweather since I’ve been tracking since 2008.


Temperatures well above normal. Rain below.

For the month of August we were above normal in the City and Airport. The daily maximums in particular were 2.5° C above normal at the Airport and we did set a few daily records.

Rainfall was half (49%) of normal at the Airport and the vast majority (20 of 22 mm) fell in one day on August 15th.

As reported by the AV Times, this was one of the hottest July/August periods in the Valley in a long time.  It also kept our local wildfire teams busy all over the province.


Lightning storm leaves a mark

Certainly the most memorable thing about the month has to be the lightning storm of August 12th. It was definitely the strongest storm we have had in the Valley for many years and it produced power outages, damaged electronics, nearly caused a natural gas fire at the mill, shattered the loggers pole at the Fall Fair grounds and started a small forest fire on Arbutus ridge.

IMG_4646.JPG The pole didn’t stand a chance.

Looking Ahead – Weak El Niño – Warm and dry fall and winter?

Don’t expect the water restrictions to be lifted anytime soon. There is some possible rain coming towards the end of the month in the long range models but that is a long ways off and doesn’t look like enough to bring us near normal rainfall amounts to recharge the rivers and lakes. We will see though, anything can happen.

The monthly precipitation charts from the US NOAA say much the same with below average rainfall expected.  Here is September rainfall.

IMG_4647.PNG

It does predict normal to above normal rainfall for October though, which is good.

IMG_4648.PNG

After that though, the models turn dry, and hot. This may be related to the weak (between 0.5°C and 0.9°C in the chart below) El Niño now expected..

IMG_4649.PNG

A no Snow Year?

Given the charts below, it seems like we might have a pretty sparse year for snowfall at low levels especially and perhaps in the mountains as well.

Precipitation and Temperature Anomaly Sept/Oct/Nov (meteorological fall).
IMG_4655.PNG

IMG_4654.PNG

Precipitation and Temperature Anomaly Dec/Jan/Feb (meteorological winter)
IMG_4651.PNG

IMG_4653.PNG

It looks like a warm and dry fall and winter.

Enjoy the warmth this week!


 

Average Daily Temperature for August:

Alberniweather: 20.5° C
Alberni Elementary School : 20.4° C
Maquinna Elementary School: 20.2° C
Neptune Canada Station: 23.6° C
Overall City Average: 21.2° C
Environment Canada Airport: 20.2° C

1981-2010 Env Canada Normal (Robertson Creek): 18.5° C
City Stations Diff from normal: +2.7° C
Official (Airport) Difference from normal: +1.7° C


Average Minimum Daily Temperature for August:

Alberniweather: 14.4° C
AES: 14.0° C
MAQ: 14.2° C
NEP: 15.5° C
Overall City Average: 14.5° C
Environment Canada Airport: 11.8° C

1981-2010 Env. Canada Normal (Robertson Creek): 10.9° C
City Stations Difference from normal: +3.6° C
Official (Airport) Difference from normal: +0.9 C


Average Maximum Daily Temperature for August:

Alberniweather: 27.7° C
AES: 27.7° C
MAQ: 27.9° C
NEP: 28.3° C
Overall City Average: 27.9° C
Environment Canada Airport: 28.6° C
1981-2010 Env Canada Normal (Robertson Creek): 26.1° C
City Stations Difference from normal: +1.8° C
Official (Airport) Difference from normal: +2.5° C


Average Precipitation for August:

Alberniweather: 19.3 mm
AES: 20.8 mm
MAQ: 21.2 mm
NEP: NA (not measured)
Overall City Average: 20.4 mm
EC: 22.8 mm

1981-2010 Env Canada Normal (Robertson Creek): 46.4 mm
City Stations Diff. normal: -26.0 mm (44% of normal)
Official (Airport) Diff. from  normal: -23.6 mm mm (49% of normal)

 


Comparison to recent Augusts at Alberniweather (only).

2013: we were significantly warmer and dry this August than last.

2012:  We were warmer but that August 15 rain put us well ahead of 2012s lows (which led to historic dry conditions)

2011: We were warmer this year but again that August 15 rainfall put us over the top.

2010:  August 2010 was a little cooler again but we received similar rainfall.

2009:  August 2010 was a little cooler again but we received a little less rainfall than this year.

2008:  August 2008 was cooler and we received a lot more rainfall, over 60mm.