Fri. Sep 20th, 2019

Another foggy week of no rain also.. sea temperatures

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 05:00 AM PDT Friday 20 September 2019 - Friday: Cloudy. Becoming a mix of sun and cloud near noon. Fog patches dissipating this morning. High 22. UV index 6 or high. Friday night: Partly cloudy. Fog patches developing before morning. Low 12. Saturday: Becoming cloudy in the morning. 40 percent chance of showers late in the afternoon. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 19. UV index 2 or low. Saturday night: Periods of rain. Low 14. Sunday: Showers. High 18. Sunday night: Clear. Low 7. Monday: Periods of rain. High 14. Monday night: Periods of rain. Low 11. Tuesday: Periods of rain. High 21. Tuesday night: Cloudy periods. Low 10. Wednesday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 16. Wednesday night: Cloudy periods. Low 9. Thursday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 16.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    16.2° C
    1.8 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.81 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    N/A 0 km/h
    gusting 0 km/h
    Humidity
    87 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    16.2° C
    Heat Index
    16.2° C
    Dewpoint
    14.0° C
    UV
    1.3
    Solar
    368 W/m2
    Last Updated: 9:35:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Today's Almanac
    Rain since Midnight
    0.0 mm
    Continuous Rainfall (< 24hr gap)
    No Qualifying Rainfall mm
    Civil Rise
    06:29
    Moon Phase
    Last quarter (65% full)
    Civil Set
    19:54
    Day Length
    13:12:35
    Day High
    16.2° C @ 09:32 Tdy.
    Day Low
    13.7° C @ 07:43 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.83 kPa @ 08:43 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.71 kPa @ 02:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    13.7° C @ 07:43 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    16.2° C @ 09:32 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 0km/h @ 09:15 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    422W/m2 @ 09:07 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    1.4 @ 09:33 Tdy.

The jetstream remains bent around a ridge of high pressure over western North America. It will break down a bit today and tomorrow but will rebuild just as strong as ever by Wednesday and Thursday.

Here is the jetstream on Thursday.

20140120-065145.jpg

This will keep us foggy and dry (aside from the dampness of the fog) with inversion conditions.

Looking out a little farther, the monthly forecasts from the NOAA are predicting below average precipitation for our part of the continent for February.

20140120-071612.jpg

There is better news for March as normal or slightly above normal precipitation is predicted. (Though notice the dry spell continues for California, which could be very bad for crops there and food prices here)

20140120-071620.jpg

These long range forecasts are always to be taken with a grain of salt since they do look so far out. They are based largely on trends in El Niño, which is expected to remain neutral and thus inactive through March but might creep into El Niño territory in fall if the model predictions turn out as you see them below.

20140120-072447.jpg

The graph above shows all of the models used by the NOAA to predict whether there will be an El Niño, La Niña or neutral conditions. If the values turn out above or below 0.5C then they declare an El Niño or La Niña respectively. As of now, it looks like neutral conditions will continue as they have been for almost a year. This means we won’t get any big pushes from that particular phenomenon on our weather through summer.

El Niño (The Southern Oscillation Index) is a sea temperature phenomenon so we know that sea temperatures, both at the surface and to some depth, affect our weather patterns. So it should not come as a big surprise that sea temperatures may be responsible for feeding into our very dry winter. In the case of California, it has been their driest rainy season ever on record.

If you check out the animation for the past 6 months here you’ll see a large area of above normal sea surface temperatures migrating from West (Asia) to East (North America). The strong ridges of high pressure and big bends in the jetstream seem to have followed this patch of warm water.
Here are sea surface temperatures at the end of September.

20140120-071419.jpg
And here they are again this weekend.

20140120-071427.jpg

If you compare them to the first image in this post of the jetstream, you’ll see the two similar locations between the high pressure, the bend of the jetstream, and the warm waters.

20140120-065145.jpg

Happy Monday!