Sun. Nov 18th, 2018

Another foggy week of no rain also.. sea temperatures

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - No watches or warnings in effect.

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PST Saturday 17 November 2018 - Saturday night: Clear. Fog patches developing overnight. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 2. Wind chill minus 4 overnight. Sunday: Sunny. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. High 10. UV index 1 or low. Sunday night: Clear. Fog patches overnight. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 1. Wind chill minus 3 overnight. Monday: Sunny. High 8. Monday night: Clear. Low plus 1. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 7. Tuesday night: Periods of rain. Low plus 1. Wednesday: Rain. High 8. Wednesday night: Rain. Low 6. Thursday: Rain. High 10. Thursday night: Rain. Low plus 5. Friday: Rain. High 9.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    1.3° C
    -0.6 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    102.56 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    NE 0.5 km/h
    gusting 3.2 km/h
    Humidity
    95 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    1.3° C
    Heat Index
    1.3° C
    Dewpoint
    0.6° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    0 W/m2
    Last Updated: 22:10:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.3 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    06:56
    Moon Phase
    First quarter (74% full)
    Civil Set
    17:11
    Day Length
    12:04:14
    Day High
    10.3° C @ 15:07 Tdy.
    Day Low
    1.3° C @ 22:01 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    102.87 kPa @ 08:58 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    102.54 kPa @ 21:14 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    -0.5° C @ 21:43 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    10.3° C @ 15:07 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 6.0km/h @ 17:00 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    482W/m2 @ 12:21 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    1.3 @ 11:59 Tdy.

The jetstream remains bent around a ridge of high pressure over western North America. It will break down a bit today and tomorrow but will rebuild just as strong as ever by Wednesday and Thursday.

Here is the jetstream on Thursday.

20140120-065145.jpg

This will keep us foggy and dry (aside from the dampness of the fog) with inversion conditions.

Looking out a little farther, the monthly forecasts from the NOAA are predicting below average precipitation for our part of the continent for February.

20140120-071612.jpg

There is better news for March as normal or slightly above normal precipitation is predicted. (Though notice the dry spell continues for California, which could be very bad for crops there and food prices here)

20140120-071620.jpg

These long range forecasts are always to be taken with a grain of salt since they do look so far out. They are based largely on trends in El Niño, which is expected to remain neutral and thus inactive through March but might creep into El Niño territory in fall if the model predictions turn out as you see them below.

20140120-072447.jpg

The graph above shows all of the models used by the NOAA to predict whether there will be an El Niño, La Niña or neutral conditions. If the values turn out above or below 0.5C then they declare an El Niño or La Niña respectively. As of now, it looks like neutral conditions will continue as they have been for almost a year. This means we won’t get any big pushes from that particular phenomenon on our weather through summer.

El Niño (The Southern Oscillation Index) is a sea temperature phenomenon so we know that sea temperatures, both at the surface and to some depth, affect our weather patterns. So it should not come as a big surprise that sea temperatures may be responsible for feeding into our very dry winter. In the case of California, it has been their driest rainy season ever on record.

If you check out the animation for the past 6 months here you’ll see a large area of above normal sea surface temperatures migrating from West (Asia) to East (North America). The strong ridges of high pressure and big bends in the jetstream seem to have followed this patch of warm water.
Here are sea surface temperatures at the end of September.

20140120-071419.jpg
And here they are again this weekend.

20140120-071427.jpg

If you compare them to the first image in this post of the jetstream, you’ll see the two similar locations between the high pressure, the bend of the jetstream, and the warm waters.

20140120-065145.jpg

Happy Monday!