Wed. Aug 22nd, 2018

Another foggy week of no rain also.. sea temperatures

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - SPECIAL AIR QUALITY STATEMENT IN EFFECT
    Issued: 6:04 PM PDT Tuesday 21 August 2018

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Tuesday 21 August 2018 - Tuesday night: Partly cloudy. Widespread smoke. Low 12. Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. Widespread smoke becoming local smoke near noon. High 31. Humidex 34. UV index 7 or high. Wednesday night: Partly cloudy. Local smoke. Low 12. Thursday: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High 23. Thursday night: Cloudy periods with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 12. Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 22. Friday night: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. Low 12. Saturday: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 20. Saturday night: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 13. Sunday: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High 18. Sunday night: Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 11. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 20.

  • Current Conditions
    Temperature
    30.8° C
    -1.7 ° C/hr
    Barometer
    101.4 kPa
    0.0
    Wind
    SSE 5.8 km/h
    gusting 17.7 km/h
    Humidity
    27 %
    Rain Rate
    0.0 mm/hr
    Wind Chill
    30.8° C
    Heat Index
    30.8° C
    Dewpoint
    9.6° C
    UV
    0.0
    Solar
    118 W/m2
    Last Updated: 18:25:00 PDT
    Click to Refresh or See All Conditions
  • Day Almanac
    Day's Rain
    0.0 mm
    Day ET
    0.0 mm mm
    Rain Storm
    NotAvailable mm
    Civil Rise
    05:44
    Moon Phase
    Waxing gibbous (83% full)
    Civil Set
    20:59
    Day Length
    13:22:16
    Day High
    33.3° C @ 16:03 Tdy.
    Day Low
    11.6° C @ 06:16 Tdy.
    Day High Rain Rate
    0.0mm/hr00:00
    Day High Barometer
    101.91 kPa @ 08:29 Tdy.
    Day Low Barometer
    101.39 kPa @ 17:44 Tdy.
    Day Low Windchill
    11.6° C @ 06:16 Tdy.
    Day High Heat Index
    33.3° C @ 16:03 Tdy.
    Day High Wind Gust
    S 13.2km/h @ 17:00 Tdy.
    Day High Solar Radiation
    705W/m2 @ 14:18 Tdy.
    Day High UV Index
    2.7 @ 13:01 Tdy.

The jetstream remains bent around a ridge of high pressure over western North America. It will break down a bit today and tomorrow but will rebuild just as strong as ever by Wednesday and Thursday.

Here is the jetstream on Thursday.

20140120-065145.jpg

This will keep us foggy and dry (aside from the dampness of the fog) with inversion conditions.

Looking out a little farther, the monthly forecasts from the NOAA are predicting below average precipitation for our part of the continent for February.

20140120-071612.jpg

There is better news for March as normal or slightly above normal precipitation is predicted. (Though notice the dry spell continues for California, which could be very bad for crops there and food prices here)

20140120-071620.jpg

These long range forecasts are always to be taken with a grain of salt since they do look so far out. They are based largely on trends in El Niño, which is expected to remain neutral and thus inactive through March but might creep into El Niño territory in fall if the model predictions turn out as you see them below.

20140120-072447.jpg

The graph above shows all of the models used by the NOAA to predict whether there will be an El Niño, La Niña or neutral conditions. If the values turn out above or below 0.5C then they declare an El Niño or La Niña respectively. As of now, it looks like neutral conditions will continue as they have been for almost a year. This means we won’t get any big pushes from that particular phenomenon on our weather through summer.

El Niño (The Southern Oscillation Index) is a sea temperature phenomenon so we know that sea temperatures, both at the surface and to some depth, affect our weather patterns. So it should not come as a big surprise that sea temperatures may be responsible for feeding into our very dry winter. In the case of California, it has been their driest rainy season ever on record.

If you check out the animation for the past 6 months here you’ll see a large area of above normal sea surface temperatures migrating from West (Asia) to East (North America). The strong ridges of high pressure and big bends in the jetstream seem to have followed this patch of warm water.
Here are sea surface temperatures at the end of September.

20140120-071419.jpg
And here they are again this weekend.

20140120-071427.jpg

If you compare them to the first image in this post of the jetstream, you’ll see the two similar locations between the high pressure, the bend of the jetstream, and the warm waters.

20140120-065145.jpg

Happy Monday!