October 23, 2020

An early Christmas Present on Saturday?

  • Vancouver Island Inland Sections Forecast - SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT
    Issued: 00:28 AM PDT Friday 23 October 2020

    Forecast Issued 4:00 PM PDT Thursday 22 October 2020 - Thursday night: Increasing cloudiness. Wet snow over higher terrain overnight. Rain beginning late this evening. Low plus 3. Friday: Rain. Wet snow over higher terrain in the morning. Becoming windy in the morning. High plus 5. Friday night: A few showers ending in the evening then clearing. Wind up to 15 km/h. Low minus 2. Wind chill minus 7 overnight. Saturday: Sunny. High plus 5. Saturday night: Clear. Low minus 5. Sunday: Sunny. High plus 5. Sunday night: Cloudy periods. Low zero. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. High 8. Monday night: Cloudy periods. Low 6. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud with 30 percent chance of showers. High 11. Tuesday night: Cloudy periods with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 7. Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud with 30 percent chance of showers. High 12.

There is hope.

After what seems like an eternity of fog (and at over a week, you are forgiven for thinking so) there is hope on the horizon.

It looks like the weekend might give us our first big break in the fog. It won’t necessarily be the sun that greats us, but rather some snow. The models are showing this constant 0 to 1C temperature continuing and a cold front moving through that could spread 5cm or so of snow.

So, take heart. We only have a couple more days to go before we finally get a change of some sort.

Longer term, the week before Christmas is getting mighty interesting looking on the models. The temperature is still up in the air, but there seems to be little doubt that some sort of precipitation will come down on the days leading to Christmas. I’m not about to invoke any jinx and call anything right now… But just saying…. It’s mighty interesting looking. 🙂

Here is this mornings super long range forecast out to the 23rd. Take it all with a big grain of salt as the accuracy of the forecasts this far out are generally not good. However as I said, it has been consistently showing precipitation and at or below zero temperatures over the past 3 days.

Green bars are precipitation. The graph 2nd from the bottom with blue and red lines is the temperature… Below zero being below the thin blue line.

First Christmas forecast 2011

3 thoughts on “An early Christmas Present on Saturday?

  1. Snow this weekend seems a little unlikely to me unless the incoming system has some cold air aloft.  With the temperature inversion we are under it would seem more likely to get some freezing rain.  But you never know.  It looks like some extreme cold will be building over alaska and the Yukon in the week before Christmas.  I’m betting that we might see it swing down in our direction right around the Holiday.  Maybe Santa can bring us a Christmas Blizzard.

  2. YAY for Christmas blizzards! 😀
    And it is sunny at my house – so gorgeous right now! (McCoy/Sproat area)

  3. God, it was great to see the sun yesterday – and I’m hopeful we’ll see it again today too.  I think if we do get snow this weekend though, it’ll be very little.

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